performance similar to ours at any point this season?
I believe someone said that it was 9 plays for 9 yards with 1 turnover and 2 timeouts.
It's that kind of occurence in the third game of the season that makes me worry.
That may actually be our toughest game (outside of USC) remaining on the schedule.
Presumably you meant VT?
There are only 2 possible good wins left for nd...usc and VA.
VA won't have any quality wins if they lose to ND, but could get to the ACC champ game. What would a VA team with 2 losses(with at least one being ugly) and no quality wins be ranked? High enough to help ND?
USC on the other hand could land really high...or with 4 or so losses.
they do. Good wins are by definition only against traditionally elite teams. The media never considers a win over a one off team to be of any consequence when ND is involved.
Once UVa loses to ND, they will cease to be considered a good team and if they play Clemson and lose by 57 to them it will do even more to point out that they simply are the best of the remaining shit pile that exists in the ACC after Clemson.
ACC plays an 8-game conference schedule, with 6/8 conference games in division. One interdivision game is protected every year for every team. So there's only one rotating interdivision game every year. UVa already played Florida State, so that was it for them.
I think that's what the previous poster was implying with "If they play Clemson..."
Virginia -- Even if they went 11-1, they'd have no wins over ranked teams. I suspect they might trip up against Duke, UNC, or Va Tech. But regardless, this is not a potential win to hang our hat on.
BGSU -- Again, we need to hang 100 on BVG. But this game doesn't mean shit.
USC -- Actually stands a decent chance of being a good win. They're 3-1, with a loss to a decent BYU team on the road, and a win over a good Utah team. Maybe we'll know more after the UW game this week?
Michigan -- Hot garbage. Should have lost to Army at home, killed by Wisconsin on the road. Could easily have two more losses by the time we play them (Iowa, PSU). Could very easily end up 6-6 this year.
Va Tech -- Hotter garbage. Lost to BC in week one, totally uninspiring against some dogshit programs in their week 2 and 3 games. Could have four losses by the time we play them. Unlikely to be above .500 at year's end.
Duke -- Don't know enough about them yet, but will never be a win to hang our hat on. Might be a decent team though. Lost 42-3 to Bama, beat Middle Tennessee more impressively than Michigan did. I'd guess in the 8-4 range.
Navy -- Not enough evidence to know what kind of Navy we'll see this year, but even good Navy will never be an impressive win. They're 2-0, and start playing real teams this week. Could range from garbage to Duke-level.
BC -- At best they go 9-3, at worst probably 6-6. But... Kansas. Nobody will give a shit about a win over BC for that game alone, no matter what they do the rest of the year.
Stanford -- On the path to an absolute dumpster fire. 1-3, with an uninspiring win over Northwestern, and three games of getting their shit handed to them by USC, UCF, and Oregon. They're clearly not a top 25 team, and will likely have at least 3 more losses by the time we play them (UW, WSU, Cal).
It's awful to "rely" on teams like VT or VA.
It's also awful to sit here after 3 games and KNOW that there are only possibly 2 games left that "could" be big games...but also KNOW that 4 of them are loseable.
The fact that Georgia was down 2 CB's and Book and Co. still couldn't take advantage speaks volumes.
Chip Long should not have made the plane back to SB.
I think ND will find a way to lose to Michigan or Stanford.
Even though they both stink.
Don't just read the contract stuff at the link. Read or watch the comments by ex-players.
Michigan under Jim Harbaugh:
~0-4 against Ohio State
~1-9 vs. top-10 opponents
~0-7 as an underdog
~1-6 on the road against ranked opponents
~Five losses by at least 21 points, including three of their last five games
advantage. Brian Kelly refused to allow Book to take advantage.
Book probably had his best game ever in terms of throwing the ball well 15+ yards down the field. The last drive of the first half and the last scoring drive were repeatable the entire game -- if Kelly just allowed the offense to try doing what was working virtually at will.
UGA had no answer at all for the intermediate throws in the 15-25 yard range down the field. When actually thrown, ND was completing those at a high enough rate to score on nearly every single possession (let's assume we would have self destructed several times even if called).
Instead, Kelly hammered the 3 yard routes to death, UGA adjusted and either took them away entirely on many plays or crushed our WR instantly after the catch. Watching it live from a high vantage point -- you could see UGA literally forming a wall of 3 defenders in the middle of crossing routes knowing for 100% certain the ball was going there.
If Kelly simply mixed and matched what he did within each series - UGA was in severe trouble because they could not stop the intermediate throws and the shorter ones were hurting them too until they realized that was the one and only play they had to defend.
Kelly's offense isn't necessarily a failed system. It's failing because of his execution of the system:
1) Zone running can have dramatically more variations of runs than Kelly chooses to practice, perfect and then call
2) His passing game can have a dramatically wider array of routes, attempted throws, etc. He simply doesn't try that variety in any single game.
Book has limitations that are not great for being able to win a title. That doesn't mean if Kelly would get the F out of the way the offense could not be dramatically better even with Book.
This game was extremely winnable -- because the defense turned out to be in game 8 form by game 3. Lea managed to get the new players on D to play at a top 10 level in a span of 7 days. Kelly can't do that on offense in a span of 10 years at ND and 4 years per player.
The throws were almost always immediate -- snap, catch and instantly throw. Check downs happen at a much slower rate.
You could also see the entire field from our upper deck seats -- which actually aren't bad for football games because of the ability to see the entire field every play.
Since we ran those 3 yard throws in an infinite loop, we began to focus heavily on your point -- is he checking down. The conclusion was no -- largely because of my first point, but also because of what the other players were doing. You could see the other routes being run, the attempts to block by other players, etc.
I'd say at least 90% of those crossing routes were designed calls.
Interesting to me was that GA was down 2 CB's and Finke seemed to get zero separation all night. Blanketed.
Maybe that had to do with the routes he ran and the D Georgia was in.
I've seen many ND fans lament not going to Claypool more before our last TD.
They forced the ball to him and it worked--he made plays.
As you stated--the medium and long passes were there for the taking, but Kelly/Long played too tight.
They had absolutely no answer at all for the seam route to the TE. Had they been forced to adjust for that route, you would have seen the outside WRs become wide open.
Georgia looked very much like a defense missing its top DBs. When ND attacked that aspect of their defense we ate them alive. The shocking part was Book was getting a lot of time to throw the entire game -- sans the final two plays. He unexpectedly had the time to wait to throw deeper -- and when called it worked almost a will.
To El K's point -- on those crossing routes, you didn't see the TE sprinting down the center of the field, etc. They were designed to be short throws.
I suspect Kelly believed Book would be under instant pressure and planned for short throws. Great. Not a terrible assumption to make. However, when it was proven false, and we also were completing the intermediate throws consistently, Kelly became a proven dumbass because he was unable to adjust and actually call what was working.
Had he done it, the short game he was calling would have opened back up too -- and then an amazing thing could have happened: Georgia wouldn't know if we were going short or long each play and would have to attempt to defend both every play!
Or does shit for brains handle playcalling?
I ask because I do not know
Chip supposedly calls the plays--but I found it interesting during the Louisville game they showed Kelly on the sideline with his nose buried in a play sheet....
Truthfully--zero will change with this offense as long as Kelly is coach.
OL coach, OC etc.
So my idea of getting rid of Chip is probably grasping at straws because nothing will change.
here is what actually happens day to day.
1) Kelly allows the DC to control every single aspect of what happens on defense during practices and games: how to allocate time, who to play at each position, what techniques to teach or not teach, etc. He also allows the DC to create every game plan on his own and lets him do anything he wants during games. Kelly spends 0.1% of his time on defense.
The net result is if you have Elko or Lea -- you can get a good result. If you have BVG, you get catastrophic results. Unlike Holtz, Kelly is unable to personally step in on defense and stop any bleeding if it exists. As the BVG era pointed out -- he actually can't even recognize that bleeding is happening until you have bled out entirely.
2) Kelly spends 99.9% of his time on offense. He controls every single aspect of the offense. He personally mandates all practice time, what types of plays are and are not allowed, who plays at every position, how practices are run, how much time is spent on any aspect of the offensive side of the ball.
Long makes suggestions on what ND should do. Long handles administrative elements of running the offense, looking after players on that side of the ball, etc. Long is basically an assistant coach with the title OC.
Long prepares drafts of game plans. Kelly edits them. During games Long calls plays based on parameters mandated to him by Kelly and Kelly has a veto per play during games. Kelly tells Long we need to pass here, run now, do a long pass, short pass, etc.
It isn't that hard to grasp. Offensively, it is nearly identical to the Holtz era. Lou also had offensive coordinators on his staff. Lou absolutely controlled every single aspect of our offense. That's no different under Kelly.
an 11-1 ND team. There is close to zero suspense for the play offs. Bama and Clemson are locks and after that pick two from Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia and LSU.
unless it's Texas A&M. The formula for a 2-loss SEC team to make the playoffs would be:
- Early nonconference loss to another elite team
- Lose to the 3rd place team in your division (or someone in the other division)
- Beat the elite team in your division and reach the SEC title game based on that head-to-head tiebreaker.
That was the formula that Auburn had 2 years ago. They lost to Clemson and LSU, then beat Alabama and were positioned to be the first 2-loss team to reach the CFP until Georgia beat them in the SEC title game. A&M identically opened their season with a loss to Clemson, and they lost to Auburn. If they run the table, then that would include a win over Bama. If Auburn loses to Bama and someone else, that would put A&M in the SEC title game against (presumably) Georgia and winning that would undoubtedly put them into the CFP.
But that's just theoretical. A&M isn't good enough to do all that. As for the rest of the teams, there aren't any more quality nonconference games on their schedules, and it's hard to imagine a team with 2 conference losses winning their division.
In that situation, I think there'd be more teams than Notre Dame standing in their way. Is there a specific scenario you're thinking of?
If ND goes in and hammers Michigan, Stanford and SC as they should.
1-loss SEC teams like Bama, LSU or UGA all would get the nod over ND, as would a 1-loss Auburnif it's a close loss to Bama.
USC has comparable talent.
Michigan has comparable talent.
Kelly struggles to beat Shaw at home and has never beaten him on the road.
Michigan was lucky to beat Army, and got blown out by Wisconsin.
USC lost to BYU.
Stanford has lost three in a row. Without looking it up, that probably hasn't happened in over a decade.
Fwiw, ND currently has an 82.9% chance to beat USC, a 71.0% chance to beat Michigan (on the road), and an 84.3% chance to beat Stanford (also on the road). That translates into a 49.6% chance, right now, of sweeping the three (traditionally) toughest remaining opponents on our schedule. And I think those odds could increase prior to game time, especially in Michigan's case.
With the schedule they have and so do we, it would be pretty difficult to leave us out unless there are two other undefeated teams
These teams will almost always make it in ahead of a 1-loss ND:
- Conference champs with 0 or 1 loss.
- SEC champ with 2 losses (but that won't happen this year).
- SEC non-champ with 1 loss (very likely this year).
These teams will be behind ND:
- Anybody with 2 losses (excluding SEC champ)
Then it comes down to judgment with these ones:
- 1 loss non-champ
- 0 loss team from non-P5 conference
ND has no shot at a playoff appearance.
We will not get in on the strength of our resume, because our schedule will not allow us a signature win.
We can, and should win out, and that can still provide some satisfying moments -- prison raping Michigan, and soundly thumping USC could still make for an enjoyable season with a chance to play another elite opponent in a major Bowl. But for us to make the playoffs we would need to subjectively improve on offense (to the tune of putting up 40-50 points per game), and have other teams lose. Most one loss teams from P5 conferences will have a better resume than us.
If we miss the playoff, our NY6 options are limited to the Orange and Cotton Bowls.
If we play in the Orange Bowl, our opponent will come from the ACC. With Clemson almost certainly in the CFP, the ACC rep will be the next-highest ranked ACC team. Currently, that is Virginia. Keep in mind, however, that the Orange Bowl has a rule prohibiting regular season rematches. That means that if Virginia goes to the Orange Bowl, we can't go, even if we would qualify as the opponent otherwise. Our best bet for an Orange Bowl bid, imho, would be for Miami to beat Virginia then run the table on the rest of its ACC schedule (Miami already has a conference loss to North Carolina).
If we go to the Cotton Bowl, this year our opponent would be the Group of Five representative. At this point, Boise State has the inside track, but I suppose UCF could sneak back into consideration with a Boise State loss.
The way I'm reading things though, the Orange Bowl has the option to (but is not required) to pass over a team it would otherwise select if it would create a re-match.
Also, I've seen conflicting reports on the G5 tie-in. Some say they're merely required to go to either the Cotton or the Orange, while others say they're required to go to the Cotton.
If, for example, the Orange Bowl passed over a rematch, would they be required to instead take the P5 champ? (I could maybe, possibly see them considering doing this if it was UCF).
ND just needs to get off of the major bowl game schneid.
Based upon our performances last year and in 2012, it's an easy decision for the committee. For example, if Clemson, Oklahoma, and Georgia are all sitting there undefeated, they're in. Which team is the 4th team? An undefeated Ohio State? A 1-loss (UGA) Alabama? A 1-loss (OU) Texas? The committee isn't going to be burned 3 times.
Isn't that at least somewhat of a rarity?
ND needs help to be sure. If they shut out the noise and win out impressively with double digit wins along the way, then I would say ND has a chance.
The rules since 1989 has been that a non-undefeated ND team has no chance at a National Championship. For better or worse that is what it is. Perfection is demanded no matter how unfair lesser coaches/AD's seem to feel that standard is. It isn't exactly the standard fans/alumni are setting, but it is the standard the college football world demands to meet our expectations (an National Championship).
Last I checked the sign says: PLAY LIKE A CHAMPION TODAY, unless they've changed it with: Play like you are in the conversation today
I.e., it applies only to ND. Your post seems to imply that it does.
The deck is always stacked against ND has been since Knute was a player. Therein is found some of the glories that makes Notre Dame special. Odds great or small Notre Dame will win over all. It used to not be lip service.
I don't mind bench marking against other great schools, but in the end Notre Dame can only compare it's current self against it's past. If ND just aims to be another top 10 school in all aspects, let's just let the lay board take over, drop the Catholicism, go co-ed dorms, and become full members of a conference and stop pretending to have aspects that make ND different or special.
It is that simple every single year. Period. I don't know why people spend even one second trying to convince themselves otherwise.
We play a half assed schedule every year. We are perceived to play one less game -- an optical illusion since we only play top tier teams and the others play high school teams 1 or 2 games.
In the Holtz era, ND could get in with 1 loss because we played 4 or 5 top 10-20 level teams every year.
Swardick improved our situation from Kevin Worthless, but we still are dependent on Sanford to somehow sustain being legitimate to even have the HOPE of playing a 3rd real team any season.
At best the ACC is going to have either Clemson, FSU or Miami as its only legitimate team in any year -- forever. The three of them have never been elite in the same year and it's been a long time since even two of them have. It's moot anyway, because by design ND never plays Clemson and FSU in the same season.
We are 1-18 against the top five. Why would anyone take a chance on us in another top 5 matchup?
Every year until we win one of these, it is put up or shut up. And it’s a lot of shutting up. We had our chance, we blew it, again.
A regular season win against such a team (preferably against such a team that isn't a traditional opponent like USC, or Stanford), or in a major bowl game against a top tier team would do wonders for us.
If there are to be objectives for the rest of the year, it's to get to a major bowl to play a top tier opponent, and destroy our enemy and our rival in the process of the regular season to get there.
I'll go on record as being happy with a 12-1 season with a win in a major bowl.
winning our remaining games would be nice, especially if it means humiliating Michigan again.
But to show a step forward, we need to qualify for a major bowl and beat a legitimate opponent to prove we can do it.
Or maybe Kelly will install the “beating quality opponents” part of his program in decade three.
I won't go so far as to say that we have no chance at the CFP this year at 11-1, but it would take an extremely chaotic season (think 2007, and I'm not referring to ND that year) for that to happen.
At this point, I think we win out, which puts us in line for either an Orange Bowl or Cotton Bowl bid, depending on other factors. I think we'd be comfortable favorites in either situation, although we're likely to get a less-than-elite opponent.
The Big 10 has been shut out of the playoffs for at least the last 2 seasons.
If it comes down to a 1 loss ND and a conference champ from their conference--guess which team they will pick?
Same scenario with any other Conference vs ND.
ND is out with 1 loss.