Serious Answer: BK 1.0 vs. BK 2.0 based on Sagarin
by irishlaw2010 (2019-12-04 13:46:46)
Edited on 2019-12-04 14:03:24

In reply to: Is there a difference between two coats of paint and BK 1.0  posted by SWPaDem


These are final post-Bowl rankings and don't make any adjustment for the two years of forfeits. I also omitted 2016 as including it with Kelly 1.0 would make Kelly 2.0 look like a much better coach. The end conclusion is he has improved but is still not at the level needed.

The schedule appears to be slightly easier for Kelly 2.0 than Kelly 1.0 but 2.0 is playing slightly more top 10 and top 30 teams a year.

Kelly 1.0 (not including 2016)
Record: 55-18 (.753)
Average Rating: 20
Median Rating: 22.5
Average SOS: 24.6
Median SOS: 23.5
Vs. Top 10: 2-7
Average of 1.5 Top 10 Teams played a year
Vs. Top 30: 13-15
Average of 4.6 Top 30 Teams played a year

Kelly 2.0
Record: 32-6 (.842)
Average Rating: 10.3
Median Rating: 10
Average SOS: 22.3
Median SOS: 31
Vs. Top 10: 1-4
Average of 1.6 Top 10 Teams played a year
Vs. Top 30: 11-6
Average of 5.6 Top 30 Teams played a year

2010 (8-5)
Final Rating: 19
SOS: 22
vs. Top 10: 0-1 (Stanford)
vs. Top 30: 2-1 (USC, Utah)

2011 (8-5)
Final Rating: 26
SOS: 25
vs. Top 10: 0-1 (Stanford)
vs. Top 30: 1-4 (Michigan, USC, Michigan State, Florida State)

2012 (12-1)
Final Rating: 5
SOS: 21
vs. Top 10: 1-1 (Alabama, Stanford)
vs. Top 30: 4-1 (Oklahoma, Michigan, BYU)

2013 (9-4)
Final Rating: 28
SOS: 30
vs. Top 10: 1-1 (Stanford, Michigan State)
vs. Top 30: 3-2 (USC, Arizona State, Oklahoma)

2014 (8-5)
Final Rating: 31
SOS: 33
vs. Top 10: 0-0
vs. Top 30: 2-4 (Florida St, LSU, Stanford, USC, Arizona St, Louisville)

2015 (10-3)
Final Rating: 11
SOS: 17
vs. Top 10: 0-3 (Ohio St, Stanford, Clemson)
vs. Top 30: 1-3 (USC)

2016 (4-8)
Final Rating: 51
SOS: 38
vs. Top 10: 0-1 (USC)
vs. Top 30: 1-4 (Miami, Virginia Tech, Stanford, NC State)

2017 (10-3)
Final Rating: 10
SOS: 2
vs. Top 10: 0-1 (Georgia)
vs. Top 30: 5-3 (Stanford, USC, Miami, NC State, Michigan State, Wake Forest, LSU)

2018 (12-1)
Final Rating: 7
SOS: 31
vs. Top 10: 1-1 (Clemson, Michigan)
vs. Top 30: 3-1 (Stanford, Syracuse)

2019 (10-2)
Current Rating: 14
SOS: 34
vs. Top 10: 0-2 (Georgia, Michigan)
vs. Top 30: 3-2 (USC, Navy, Virginia)




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