I think it's more perception of Kelly

There are two main differences between 2006 and 2019. First, Weis was in his second year and Kelly was in his 10th. Second, Weis had a perceived track-record of success in "Big Games"; Kelly does not.

Kelly has burned through his equity, moreso than the ND brand, such that at 11-1, a Kelly-led ND team would likely be outside the playoff spots, even after the conference championship games. They'll consistently be the lowest ranked N-loss team, perhaps not the lowest but near the bottom.

Nobody believes Kelly can pull off a victory against an elite opponent, rightly so.

In 2006, Weis was riding the perception coattails of Super Bowl wins, Patriots, Inc., and the turn-around 2005 season. While the two losses were definite beatdowns, the perception and luster hadn't yet caught up to reality. Easier to spot in hindsight.

If you put a proven-winner at the helm, the perception and equity will revert to similar to 2005/6. When that coach wins a major bowl it'll momentum will soar.