Rocco Spindler is a must for the 2021 recruiting class

Rocco Spindler is a must for the 2021 recruiting class
by MrE (2020-07-07 12:12:45)
Edited on 2020-07-07 12:15:34

2/3 of the current OL class is lower-rated players, what the recruiting sites call “3 stars.”

At the bottom of this post is a list of Kelly’s OL recruits, in order by national ranking. You’ll notice Nick Martin stands out as the only 3-star recruit that was an impact player at ND and was drafted by the NFL.

I took a look at some of the other programs that traditionally have strong OL’s to see if ND's low hit-rate was an outlier.

In the last 6 NFL drafts (Martin’s draft class + the 5 ensuing drafts), here is how 3-star OL have fared:

Alabama – 0
ND – 1 (Martin)
Iowa – 0
Wisconsin – 1 (Ramczyk)
Michigan – 1 (Runyan)
Ohio State – 1 (Elflein)

So 6 programs, 6 years of data.
36 total years/seasons, 4 total draftees = 1 every 9 years.

#26 Kraemer
#51 Fisher
#56 Hegarty
#61 Nelson
#80 Eichenberg
#84 Hainsey
#89 Hoge
#95 Correll
#97 Bivin
#99 Baker
#109 Bars
#115 Elmer
#118 Carroll
#120 Lugg
#129 Stanley
#145 Carmody
#166 Banks
#172 McGlinchey
#183 Kristofic
#185 Olmstead
#193 McGovern
#225 Mustipher
#311 Byrne
#369 Patterson
#374 Gibbons
#403 Boudreaux
#462 Ruhland
#488 Harrell
#515 Dirksen
#516 Jones
#529 N. Martin
#563 Coogan
#627 Alt
#716 Mabry
#817 Hanratty

But how many total recruits were in that denominator?

That's much more important than total seasons. If Bama and OSU, for instance, didn't have a lot of 3 star OL recruits, then this becomes less meaningful.

Denominator = 58 *

Thanks. 6.89% is a shade above the average.

One analysis of the 2014 NFL draft indicated about 5.55 percent of eligible 3 stars were drafted (92 of 1,644). Presumably they looked just at the number of three stars of the college senior class as a baseline. In that same draft, 20 percent of four stars were drafted.

By comparison from 2000-2014, 55 percent of five stars were drafted.

Click here for link at https://www.bannersociety.com/2014/5/12/20706985/nfl-draft-b

Wisconsin is doing well, just not necessarily with OL.

Of that 58 in the OL denominator, Wisconsin had 12, so 1/12 was their OL hit rate, or 8.33%.

But over the last 5 NFL drafts, the Badgers have had 16 of 94 3-star recruits drafted (Jonathan Taylor from the 2017 recruiting class + 2011-2016 recruiting classes). 17%.

I always had it in my head that Iowa and Wisconsin were developing 3-star OL into studs. Not the case, apparently.

the breakdown of the 58:

Ohio State - 13
Iowa - 13
Wisconsin - 12
Michigan - 9
Alabama - 6
Notre Dame - 5