Would not be surprised to see Clemson and maybe FSU bolt to the SEC this summer.
ND has very important decisions to make in the next 12 months of so.
Hate to say it but it seems like full conference affiliation seems inevitable.
I agree that Florida State and Clemson will wind up in the SEC, but I think it may take a little longer than you estimate. I believe the SEC will need Texas and Oklahoma to join officially before taking a vote on Florida State and Clemson, otherwise the Gentlemen's Agreement could defeat it.
Once that happens, I think the floodgates open. I see the B1G grabbing Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Miami (for a presence in Florida), and the SEC also picking up NC State and VaTech (for a presence in those states).
That leaves six teams in the ACC. BC, Pitt, Syracuse and Louisville will stay together based on common past in ACC and Big East (although BC and Louisville were never in the Big East at the same time). Duke and Wake will stay with them because, essentially, they have no other option remaining. From there, full merger with the Big XII is a possibility, but I think the more likely scenario is that they take the three easternmost teams in the Big XII (UCF, Cincinnati, WVU). In that event, merger with the Big East is also a possibility, but I think the more likely scenario is that they offer 3-5 from among UConn, East Carolina, UMass, Memphis, South Florida and Temple. So the ACC stays together in some fashion, but possibly under a different name and certainly severely weakened.
Big XII suffers a similar fate. Pac-12 may as well, especially if SEC and/or Big 10 embraces the concept of football-only membership for those schools. Again, here the conference figures to be severely weakened but probably survives in some form. Beyond USC, there's a considerable dropoff in demand for these schools.
I've always felt ND was a poor fit for the ACC, but, man, it was great for ESPN and network sports in general for them to be in the league. I've always thought ESPN would lead the charge to control college sports and force the formation of "super conferences" (for want of a better term). There will likely be only 4 or so super conferences with teams strategically picked so each conference will have a very large viewing audience. Smaller division 1 conferences will either drop down a division or form their own super conferences. ND will likely have to join a conference, for better or for worse.
The SEC and the Big 10, whose TV deal is coming up in the next few months and will set the tone for the next phase of realignment.
The Big 12 is another Dead Man Walking IMO with the ACC. Don't see how they survive long term with Texas and Oklahoma pulling out.
The Pac 12 has never gained much traction. TV rules these deals and the start times for their games as well as lack of a top power recently make it difficult for them to flex their muscle.
Discussed here before, but that contract is an albatross negotiated by the previous ACC commissioner and all the ACC schools are chained to it. They are stuck with it until 2036 and I don't believe there is any opt-out capability. Remember when Scottie Pippen locked in for a long-term contract and it was a bad deal for him (and others told him it was bad)? Same thing here.
Side note: For the moment, Phillips still lives on the North Shore - if you drive by a certain house with an ACC flag out front, you'll know it's his place.
Just how much you are willing to give up to get out of it is the question.
A lot of talk that ND can't move until 2035, but the ACC doesn't have ND's football rights anyway and I can't imagine we are talking a ton of money for the basketball rights.
Would be if they wanted to join a football conference. Their deal with the ACC doesn't require them to join the ACC for football, but does state that ND can't join any football conference other than the ACC during that period. Strictly a hunch, but my guess is that in the minds of the ACC, that provision is worth quite a bit more money than is ND's GoR provision (IIRC, ND's GoR, which does not include football, is worth roughly the same as Wake Forest's, which includes football).
Phillips can't be naive enough to think the premier teams will really sit pat with this terrible deal for another 14 years.
At some point a team will challenge and find a way out. And then it's over.
It has occurred to me that perhaps the SEC's pursuit of Oklahoma and Texas was motivated, at least in part, by a desire on Sankey's part to have the votes necessary to override the Gentlemen's Agreement, if indeed it is invoked to deny membership to Florida State and/or Clemson.
exist . . . If you want to pay the money, you can do whatever the hell you want . . .
breaks short to stay within a certain timeframe since they’d have to go to another game afterwards.
but ND alumni want to have competitive football, so /shrugs shoulders.
Saucy: "Look at how fast this train is going! I like riding on it. I even sit in the conductor room. I am glad they let me ride with the guys who are steering this train. I like it that people know I am riding in the room with the conductors".
Observer: "Man, we are picking up speed as this train goes down this steep decline. There is the brake lever. WABCO brakes. Do you think you ought to tell somebody to pull the brake lever?"
Saucy: "No. They might kick me out of the conductors room and make me sit in steerage. I like sitting up here. Looking cool and being awesome. Check out my spectacles. And my fashionable beard."
Observer: "Hey, there is a fork in the road ahead, if we go right, the tracks level off, and we could stop the train from going too fast to stop. Do you think you should tell the conductor, who seems kind of crazy."
Saucy: "No. After we pass the fork in the road, and reach the point of no return, we can tell people there was a fork in the road."
Observer: "Hey, the bridge up ahead has collapsed; unless we stop this train now, we will hurtle into a deep gorge, and the whole train will be destroyed. Do you think we should finally pull the brake?"
No, the Saucy: "No, they gave me a parachute. Got a couple for my sons and daughters."
He's the former head coach, now "chair of athletics", at Coastal Carolina who was also at one time the CEO of TD Ameritrade. In addition to these quotes he lays out his ideas for fixing recruiting, signing periods, coaching contracts, and the FBS in general. But his main point is just being appalled at the lack of leadership.
“I have a lot of respect for what the NCAA has done, but if this was the business world, the entire board would get fired,” he said. “The entire executive management team would get fired.”
...
“If there was ever a time when college sports had to absolutely act like a real business and run like a business with a sense of urgency, it’s now,” he said. “I sit in meetings and see great ideas, but I don’t get a sense of urgency.”
Moglia says change needs to be radical, and it’s not simply NIL rules. From contracts to new leadership to FBS structure, he has a lot of ideas.
“If we’re going to do something, we have to get it done now,” he said. “The quicker college sports gets its arm around that, the better you’re going to be. If college sports is going to wait for the NCAA, that’s unbelievable to me, when they allowed this to happen.”
An executive committee in charge
Forget various boards and subcommittees and a slow legislative process. Moglia would create an executive committee with almost autonomous power to make decisions. Like a business, the group could be made up of anyone the membership decides, and they can be voted out. But they would have the power.
“It should have the skill sets for everything you might be looking for, but the business sense and the courage to do what they really believe is right for all of college sports,” he said. “They’re the bosses. That’s it. They determine the rules as objectively as they can.”
The NCAA as an organization is simply made up of the schools. It’s not a third-party group. Committees are made up of athletic directors and presidents. NCAA president Mark Emmert, who will step down next year, has little actual real power, but much of Moglia’s frustration with college athletics stems from Emmert’s absence of leadership and direction over the past year — not to mention the NCAA Board of Governors giving him a contract extension in the middle of that in April 2021.
“The face of the biggest lack of leadership in the history of college sports and he gets an extension,” Moglia said. “A year later, he’s no longer going to be there. Now he’s a lame duck. … I think that borders on unethical. Whoever put that contract together, I understand Emmert taking advantage of what they give him, but that’s a horrible executive decision. The guy hasn’t done his job.”
going to be the Big Ten or SEC model.
"Swarbrick spoke today and reiterated that concern: "We're getting to a two solar system model here. You have two suns with all the gravitational pull -- the Big Ten and the SEC. People are going to have to figure out how to align with one or the other.”
Is he implying we will join the Big Ten or SEC? Or just align with them. I know it says align in the tweet, just don't believe that is what Jack meant. I believe he is laying the groundwork for full membership.
I have some questions:
1. In each solar system, who will be Pluto?
2. Which solar system will have the bigger sun?
3. I like our Solar System the way it is. Will one of these solar systems remain ours? If so, who will be the sun of the new one? Alabama? And ours, will our Sun now be the NCAA and will it burn out in a few seasons?
4. What will ND do? Will we orbit the Sun in our present orbit - in the Goldilocks Zone, or will we be forced outward, toward Mars and live in perpetual winter with a thin atmosphere, with no oceans that we can swim in or lay on the beach and watch attractive women in bikinis?
These are important questions. I gotsta know!
We used to sing that song at camp.
to the moon. One of these days.
Which solar system gets stuck with the Uranus Wolverines
Who gets the naming rights to "Sun"
Will we still get to keep our moon or will it wander away
every indication over the past few decades is a resounding "NO" to that question.
Go down to FCS?
We've been following the money since Rockne was the head coach. Either lead, follow, or get out of the way.
ND alumni want competitive football.
/continues to monitor the landscape
This isn't hard.
Despite the Big 10's insistence on appearing like they care about academics, I assume the Big 10 and SEC have the same financial interests.
Without knowing more, I'd assume Ohio St, Nebraska, and Penn St would sign onto whatever the SEC wants. I could see Wisconsin and Michigan potentially resisting, but I assume money talks so they'll change.
Non generate side. With Wisconsin and what’re other Big 10 schools would like to come along.
Ditto USC<, Texas, Miami, UCLA, and a critical mass of other schools who don’t want to throw in with the SEC charade.
They will throw in with whatever makes them the most money. They are every bit the money whore that OSU is.
a "money whore."
I'm not sure there is a more dishonest and disingenuous athletic department head in the country than Jack swarbrick, and under his leadership ND is definitely a money whore.
Nominal independence. Then again, that's the one that would probably be the straw that broke the camel's back, if he gave up on it.
he's positioning for a bigger payday down the line, don't kid yourself.
Noting k=new to see here.
Of course, usually the money follows so it’s hard to separate the two.
Top academic school. And they would be a better fit with ND, Stanford, Wisconsin, PSU, maybe Texas, Miami, Nebraska, etc.
The time is now for ND to lend its weight and standing to that effort. Not 6 months from now. Articulate a mission, a justification, a competing and preferable and marketable option.
Or ND Stadium will meet the same fate as Port Plaza mall. Lost in Younkers.
USC? Texas? The Texas that just jumped to the SEC for the money? Miami? Yes, a veritable paragon of virtue. Nebraska? That’s a shit school. Penn State? The school that covered up a child molester for decades?
These schools are not our friend. They do not share any of our values.
Get into than ND for some of their programs. Also, I was absolutely stunned when taking my 3 kids on college tours. There is one and only one other college that is run almost exactly like ND… USC. The freshman year of studies concepts, dorm life, etc. the campus is also fairly compact and self contained v spread randomly around the city like many of its peer city based colleges. In 2017 they had guaranteed dorms through junior year and were actively building more dorms to increase that to a senior guarantee too.
Along similar lines for state schools - I couldn’t believe where florida is ranked now. My daughter is a rising sophomore there. It was her fallback to ND. They are top 5 public schools now - but are ranked 26th overall for 2021. ND was 19th for example.
ND remains unique with single sex dorms and the dorms being a mix of all 4 classes v single class per dorm in large part. ND is still the better true full college experience because of campus life. But… ND no longer has a wide academic margin on a lot of state schools we used to look down on 20-30 years ago.
1. USC isn't a state school.
2. The dorm guarantee at USC may have arisen, at least in part, due to the fact that the adjacent part of Los Angeles to the USC campus isn't exactly the safest place in the world.
This thread is about both USC and state schools (texas and a list of others). My post is that USC academically is nearly a clone of ND and the way they run the university as a whole was shockingly similar to ND - down to the dorm life aspect too.
They have always owned a lot of the land around the school and/or influenced it heavily for student living in apartments. Their push for expanded dorms goes beyond safety. It’s part of a recognition of what campus life for more than just your freshman year brings to the table.
My cousin went to ND (1983 grad - I’m 89). He is a graduate of ND, harvard and Stanford. 2 of his kids went to ND, one to Carnegie Mellon and the other to USC graduating 2018. He will say the same thing about how shocked he was how similar USC is to ND. He will also tell you he made his wife write the checks for payments to USC - he couldn’t bring himself to do it.
Except Penn State. Now that’s a shit school - but for reasons independent of their academic standards.
I'm not saying it's an Ivy League-caliber school academically, but in the greater scheme of things, it's certainly not a bad school academically. I did a check on US News rankings recently, and if memory serves, Penn State was about smack dab in the middle of the Big Ten. If the sole issue were academics, I'd be okay with my kid attending Penn State. Of course, it's not, so I'm not.
The question isn't whether the B1G will play along with the SEC and do whatever Super League type thing ends up happening - they will. The question is will everyone else follow. My guess is most of them will. Including us.
I'm not sure how, after Crossroads and JumboTrons and everything else they've done to very much push their chips in on football, they could justify what amounts to a drop to the 2nd tier of big time football.
It’s worth a try and if we fail then we could still join the semi-pros.