They will only have 16 top 200 recruits from the 2020-2023 classes. And 12 of those will be in the 2022-2023 classes, mere pups.
That's not good.
That number needs to be 28-30, not 16. Average 8 per class, with at least 50% top 100 players.
Attrition of that group ~ 1-2 studs after junior year for top 2 rounds of NFL draft like Hamilton. 1 or so transfer out every year.
Other 14 or so spots for 3-stars, developmental types (2-3 per class, plus 5th years that stay for depth or plug a starter hole).
ND really needs one of Aiden G or Josh Burnham to hit. I have also heard that they might try out Junior T as a Vyper also.
I heard someone (in a position to know) mention last week that Keeley's senior season has not been as spectacular as some anticipated. In particular, that he has not been the physical force that everyone saw earlier in his HS career, and that several coaching staffs (including ND's) have cooled on him. I have not seen the kid play, but it was mentioned that opponents have been running directly at him to neutralize his speed and exploit his (lack of) physicality this year.
Of course, there many explanations (sour grapes from coaching staffs who did not prevail in the chase for his commitment, Keeley taking his foot off the gas with his future secured, opposing coaches scheming against him, etc.).
Buffalo ran at him on every single play one time and he got exposed...but when it was 3rd and 8 or longer...everybody was focused on him.
(I'd love for Keeley to come to ND and figure it out)
Even if he isn't the top-10 national prospect, he still would have to be the best pass-rushing prospect that ND has signed since Aaron Lynch.
And FWIW even the OSU recruit analyst at 247 predicts Bama
He seems too stiff for the position. A great pass rusher needs to be flexible. Even Foskey wasn’t ideal.
He was highly touted out of high school, but from what I could tell with my untrained eye, he played a bit stiff. I wonder if he could've eaten his way into a SDE under Diaco's 3-4 scheme (though it would've been hard to overtake Tuitt as a starter).
If only he could have had a career like Foskey’s.
I have not charted it by any means, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was almost 50% of the time. Based on how they have recruited the position, I wonder if they want to have the Vyper play more like a 3-4 outside LB than a traditional DE anyways. Goes to your point regarding size of the prospects in the pipeline that have yet to see the field.