Roster assessment - defense
by Jvan (2022-11-28 13:28:19)

Let's start with the defensive line.

DE - Isaiah Foskey is moving on, so the rush end (Vyper) position looks like this next season: Justin Ademilola (I'm betting he will return), senior Jordan Botelho, plus sophomores Aiden Gobaira and Josh Burnham. There are no incoming Vyper recruits in 2023.

The strong side end spot has its three top players back for 2023. Rylie Mills, NaNa Osafo-Mensah and Alex Ehrensberger. The group is solid but not exceptional. Four incoming freshmen will get a look at this spot but some of them will ultimately be moved inside.

Discussion - Lack of size is a problem at Vyper. Outside of Ademilola, the other three are better suited to be outside linebackers in a 3-4 set than ends with their hand on the ground in a 4-3. Gobaira and Burnham can add weight but won't be ready for a significant number of snaps per game in 2023. Botelho has always been a 12-15 snap guy and is productive in that role. If Ademilola does not return, this position becomes a big question mark. Regardless, neither Ademilola nor Botelho is an NFL prototype pass rusher.

The strong side end is set for a while. There are no sure-fire NFL players among the upperclassmen, either. It's too soon to know much about the incoming frosh.

Outlook - The coaches should look for help at Vyper in the transfer portal. An accomplished pass rusher is a rare, cherished commodity but the need is glaring. Foskey was productive although a bit stiff, but recruiting misses leave few options to replace him with similar quality beyond 2023.

The Irish appear to be at a plateau when it comes to talent level at these positions. They have many useful players but no difference makers. The staff must continue to aim for impact players in recruiting. Expecting to find them in the transfer portal is a long shot.

NT - At nose tackle, both Jayson Ademilola and Chris Smith will not be back. Aidan Keanaaina returns from injury and appears to be the best option to start there. Behind him there are a few options that are better suited to play the three technique tackle spot. Among them are Gabe Rubio, Jason Onye and Donovan Hinish. Howard Cross, the starter at 3-tech, has played on the nose but he is too small to be effective.

DT - Cross will start here but will need others to share the load. When he's fresh, Cross is a quality player despite his lack of size. He noticeably wore down as the 2022 season progressed and his production dropped off in November. Rubio has been the next man in. Tyson Ford will be a sophomore in 2023 and could be ready to join the rotation. Onye is another option and Mills has also worked inside.

Outlook - Assuming Keanaaina starts at the nose, the biggest problem for the staff is finding a capable backup. None of the options are ideal but Rubio may be the best bet to move in behind him. That leaves Cross at the other tackle spot with a set of unproven backups. The best bet among Ford, Hinish and Onye is Ford. Mills could also play there if Osafo-Mensah and Ehrensberger can hold down the strong side end position. Beyond that, the incoming freshmen should not be counted upon to help this soon.

It's clear the 2023 defense has a lack of ideal size up front. The overall talent level is only slightly above average - certainly not top ten, difference making studs. It will be hard for the staff to plug one hole without weakening another position. Even if they find a wide body in the portal, it's more likely to be a rotation guy rather than an impact player.

In short, the team is years away from having a dominant defensive line. Recruiting was okay in the 2023 cycle but not exceptional. A higher level is needed going forward.


good post, ND will be short 12-14 players on D next year.
by MrE  (2022-11-28 16:10:04)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

They will only have 16 top 200 recruits from the 2020-2023 classes. And 12 of those will be in the 2022-2023 classes, mere pups.

That's not good.

That number needs to be 28-30, not 16. Average 8 per class, with at least 50% top 100 players.

Attrition of that group ~ 1-2 studs after junior year for top 2 rounds of NFL draft like Hamilton. 1 or so transfer out every year.

Other 14 or so spots for 3-stars, developmental types (2-3 per class, plus 5th years that stay for depth or plug a starter hole).


good stuff! Please continue *
by quasimodo  (2022-11-28 14:56:55)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Keon Keeley would have really changed the outlook here
by irishaddict  (2022-11-28 14:22:26)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

ND really needs one of Aiden G or Josh Burnham to hit. I have also heard that they might try out Junior T as a Vyper also.


For what it's worth
by buffaloirish  (2022-11-28 14:33:03)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I heard someone (in a position to know) mention last week that Keeley's senior season has not been as spectacular as some anticipated. In particular, that he has not been the physical force that everyone saw earlier in his HS career, and that several coaching staffs (including ND's) have cooled on him. I have not seen the kid play, but it was mentioned that opponents have been running directly at him to neutralize his speed and exploit his (lack of) physicality this year.

Of course, there many explanations (sour grapes from coaching staffs who did not prevail in the chase for his commitment, Keeley taking his foot off the gas with his future secured, opposing coaches scheming against him, etc.).


For what it’s worth, also by Buffalo (link)
by Moff  (2022-11-28 16:59:06)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


they said the same thing about Derrick Thomas
by irishrock  (2022-11-28 15:29:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Buffalo ran at him on every single play one time and he got exposed...but when it was 3rd and 8 or longer...everybody was focused on him.

(I'd love for Keeley to come to ND and figure it out)


Hopefully Bama and OSU cool on him.
by irishaddict  (2022-11-28 14:39:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Even if he isn't the top-10 national prospect, he still would have to be the best pass-rushing prospect that ND has signed since Aaron Lynch.


He just visited Bama last weekend
by DBCooper  (2022-11-28 15:25:07)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

And FWIW even the OSU recruit analyst at 247 predicts Bama


Heard that about Junior
by Jvan  (2022-11-28 14:32:08)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

He seems too stiff for the position. A great pass rusher needs to be flexible. Even Foskey wasn’t ideal.


I always thought that about
by Twinkie the Kid  (2022-11-28 15:08:08)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Ishaq Williams.

He was highly touted out of high school, but from what I could tell with my untrained eye, he played a bit stiff. I wonder if he could've eaten his way into a SDE under Diaco's 3-4 scheme (though it would've been hard to overtake Tuitt as a starter).


Yeah, it was more true about Ishaq
by Jvan  (2022-11-28 15:25:06)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

If only he could have had a career like Foskey’s.


Good point. What % of time did they have Foskey stand up?
by irishaddict  (2022-11-28 14:37:58)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I have not charted it by any means, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was almost 50% of the time. Based on how they have recruited the position, I wonder if they want to have the Vyper play more like a 3-4 outside LB than a traditional DE anyways. Goes to your point regarding size of the prospects in the pipeline that have yet to see the field.


Thank you for these. It helps set realistic expectations.
by 2ndstreeter  (2022-11-28 13:50:57)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I’m looking for solid improvement next year, not the promised land quite yet.