Roster Assessment - Defense (cont.)

Roster Assessment - Defense (cont.)
by Jvan (2022-11-29 13:43:43)

Defensive Backs

CB - As for the starters, slot corner Tariq Bracy won't be back in 2023. Boundary corner Ben Morrison will be a sophomore. Field corner Cam Hart was not expected to return next year, but a season ending shoulder injury has clouded his NFL draft prospects. He may or may not elect to come back for another college season.

The rest of the mix includes Clarence Lewis, who will be a senior with considerable experience; Jaden Mickey, a sophomore who played in several games in 2022. Juniors Chance Tucker, Philip Riley, and Ryan Barnes also return, as does sophomore Jayden Bellamy. Lewis has played both field and boundary corner but he backed up Morrison at boundary in 2022.

Discussion - Morrison emerged as a star in 2022 and has a bright future. Competition for Bracy's spot and possibly Hart's will be interesting because of the number of players vying to start or play a major role. For the three current juniors, spring practice may be their last shot to make a favorable impression. Two freshmen passed them on the depth chart this past season and two more highly regarded recruits, Christian Gray and Micah Bell, will be added to the mix. Gray is an early enrollee and will compete this spring.

We'll also get our first hard look at Bellamy and find out if Mickey has progressed from a somewhat painful (especially by comparison to his classmate Morrison) debut season.

Outlook - Corner is obviously a position where the best players get on the field regardless of seniority. I could easily see the three starters as Morrison, Lewis and Mickey and a second unit of Bellamy, Gray and Bell. Any one of the latter trio could push Lewis or Mickey (but likely not Morrison) for a starting role. That would mean Riley, Tucker and Barnes might give consideration to the transfer portal if they obtain their degrees (or not, I suppose) and still want to play somewhere.

If Hart returns, he is likely to start opposite Morrison. The slot corner would become a wide-open competition. Mickey is the only candidate with experience there but I'll have my eyes on Gray.

SAFETY - Houston Griffith can't return but the eligible group includes Ramon Henderson, DJ Brown, Xavier Watts, Justin Walters, and Brandon Joseph. The incoming freshmen are Adon Shuler and Ben Minich. Peyton Bowen, a five-star recruit, remains a possibility. We'll see whether he signs with Notre Dame or Oklahoma on December 21.

Discussion - This group was largely disappointing in 2022 except for Watts, whose playing time steadily increased during the course of the season. He is also the best tackler among them. Brown and Joseph have the most experience if they decide to return. Neither is an exciting choice based on inconsistent 2022 performances. If the Irish are going to improve upon 8-4 in 2023, safety is one area that needs an upgrade. Henderson is still learning the position but he has the speed and physical tools to become a productive player. Time will tell if he develops the instincts needed to be an impactful player.

The matter could be settled quickly if Bowen joins the team. He has the tools to start from Day 1, probably with Watts. That would be an ideal pairing and there would be plenty of options to provide backup.

Outlook - This should really be TBD until Bowen makes his intentions known because he would have an immediate impact. Several players have experience but are poor tacklers (Joseph, Brown) while others are more physical but still developing a feel for the position (Watts, Walters). Henderson needs to improve in both areas but it's not out of the question. As for Shuler and Minich, they are good prospects who may need a year in the weight room before they are ready.

What about potentially playing Bowen as a nickel

Similar to how Kyle Hamilton was used his freshmen year? The safety position is in a little bit different shape now than it was that season, but still… they seem to have similar range and ball hawking skills that can be used immediately in a variety of ways.

Seems to me he’d be more impactful at free safety

That’s his natural position. Learning a new role at the college level may delay his ability to get on the field.

I’m not sure if I recall Hamilton playing slot corner either.

I think they put him out there with Gilman and Elliott.

At least to start the season. I think I remember them showing it in replays against Louisville but that seems like a long time ago now. Thanks for your response on Bowen!

Thinking about Hamilton....

I thought he was used more as a freelance player back there in the beginning as opposed to having primary responsibility for covering one (slot) receiver. I'll bet my memory is worse than yours though.

That makes sense. I wasn’t confident so we will go

with that. Boy would it be nice to have Gilman and Elliott

Good stuff, again. It'll be interesting to see how 2023

shakes out on the back end. Transfers in, transfers out.

The fact you mention Bowen would likely start as a Frosh and Mickens as a Soph tells you all you need to know about 2020 and 2021 DB recruiting.

Another Brian Kelly parting gift.

FYI, per Irish Illustrated, a walk-on safety traveled to USC instead of Walters. Made it sound like it wasn't injury related. Same with Schrauth traveling and Carmody staying home.

Yeah

I have to be care about what I say regarding transfers out. There may be a few soon and more after spring ball.

eyeballing 2023 roster - 10-15 need to transfer out

from the 2020, 2021, 2022 classes:

Possible 6th years - 1 (Justin Ademilola)
Possible 5th years - 9 (Hart, Bertrand, Kiser, Liufau, Correll, Kristofic, Joseph, Osafo-Mensah, Cross)
2020/Senior class - 13 on scholarship now
2021/Junior class - 24 on scholarship now
2022/Sophomore class - 21 on scholarship now
2023/Freshman class - 27 projected
Transfers in - 5 projected (my number)

Total Max - 100

Depends on 5th year/6th year returnees. Likely not all 9, probably closer to 5 or 6(?).

I came into the season expecting us to have a Tertiary.

I can't imagine anyone expected the season out of Morrison we got. Hopefully he becomes an ND all-timer! But the unit ended up not being the liability I expected - very refreshing. I say kudos to the coaching staff for that. They got toasted plenty, so there is tons of room for improvement. But to use your word I was expecting stiffs. I feel much better about the secondary in 23 & 24. It's not my area of primary concern moving forward.

Agreed - I expect Freeman to recruit better at DB and LB

On defense, it's the line that concerns me. It's hard for us to get 300+ pound tackles and stud pass rushers.

Why is that with the DL? It it lack of effort?

Is it that there just aren't that many kids who are that big in high school? Do we play a defense that kids don't want to play in?

I just took a look at some of our best d-linemen from recent memory and they generally weren't very close to 300 pounds when recruited:
Louis Nix: 6'2, 230 (this HAS to be a misprint of 320)
Aaron Lynch: 6'6, 240
Stephon Tuitt: 6'5, 270
Sheldon Day: 6'2, 286
Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa: 6'4, 270
Jayson Ademilola: 6'3, 290
Isaiah Foskey: 6'4, 233

I believe Nix was 230 in second grade *

So was Dewey Oxberger. He swallowed a lot of aggression.

Along with a lot of pizzas.

You listed a lot of DEs - I was speaking about interior guys

We need the beef inside. SC abused us there.

Ends can and should be lighter but solid enough to hold the edge and nimble enough to pressure the QB.

I just lumped all DL together from the recruiting site info

Your point makes even more sense with the DEs taken out. But why can't we land the big guys?

Historically we've had little success for several reasons

Lots of thise kids are from the South and tend to stay there. Kids from the Pacific region including Polynesians usually prefer the West Coast. We do get an occasional Louis Nix or Myron Taglovailoa-Amosa.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of talented 300+ pound DL in the upper Midwest or Eastern US. New Jersey has a few but they mostly end up at Penn State, Michigan or even the SEC if they are really good.

I'm sure Freeman will try harder than Kelly but it won't be easy. There is one really good prospect in the 2024 cycle named Justin Scott. ND is on him but we'll see where he ends up.

Coaches rented dorf on football? *

There aren’t a lot, overall.

Rivals has five DTs among its top 150 players, compared to 22 DEs (strong and weakside combined).

Some HS DEs end up inside in college but your point stands *

Earlier today I went and looked at our history with 290+ lbs

DL recruiting. The last one we recruited was Rubio in 2021 (none in 2022, 2023). Before that it was Keanaaia in 2020 and before that you go to 2018 with Jayson Ademilola and Franklin (we actually got 2 that year). In 2015 we got our biggest in Tillery - big and high ranked. And the year before we got Cage.

By contrast, in 2022+2023 (so far), UGA has 4, Alabama 3, Michigan and Ohio State 2 each.

Big miss on our part: Michigan's true freshman AA Mason Graham is listed as 317 (but only 295 when recruited per 247). He played great this year. He went to Anaheim Servite. We didn't recruit him per 247 and I read an October article where Elston said he was thrilled with him and specifically said "we didn't recruit him" (at ND) - no reason given. Offered by UPenn so grades not an issue. BTW - Graham was a great wrestler and they said they think that gave him a development edge. Maybe he wanted to wrestle and ND doesn't have anymore but Michigan does.

P.S. I used 247 and looked at weight at time of HS recruiting. Tired of trying to grow 300lbs players.

I still think...

if Tuck had stayed Weis would have competed for the national championship. Great ones at ND really stick out.

Same in 1993 if Bettis and Tom Carter had stayed

What a team that would have been - and we were still the best in the country.

This is all true. Even Frank DeFord admitted that

"ND got jobbed." ESPN football guys, especially Fowler, did everything they could to give the trophy to Florida State. It worked.

Is that similar to a conniption? *