That sounds about right to me.

On offense, with personnel, we have QB upgrade, an extra wide receiver, another year of WR development, and continued offensive line development point toward being better than the 40th ranked offense or whatever we were. I'd call our personnel improvements to be 1.5 games better than last year. Maybe 2.0. However, we do have big question marks about how new staff pieces on offense will work together. Let's call that minus .5 game.

I also would expect our ability for special teams to change games to drop off. I would expect that even if we returned Mason. That output was unworldly, and teams can better prepare for that. Let's call that minus 1.0 game. That goes to show how important special teams plays were last year.

Defensively, I don't know that we're ready to fill holes on DL or safety. If Hart can have a healthy year, I could really see him blossoming. I'd say we're a game worse on defense unless the young linebackers really take a big step forward. Maybe even 1.5 games worse.

All in all, 8.5 wins seems like a good line.