Three Blue Bloods and someone looking for their first title.
by wearendhockey (2023-03-27 12:10:07)

Since the NCAA hockey tournament first expanded to require all teams to win more than 2 games to claim a title (1981) Michigan, Minnesota and Boston University have made 38 Frozen Fours, including this season. They have 19 titles among them, and all three have won 2 since 1981 (actually all 6 have come since 1995, when BU claimed their 4th title).

Quinnipiac is in their 3rd Frozen Four, all three of them coming in the last 11 seasons. In their two previous trips to the FF they played for the title both times, both times coming up short. First to Yale in 2013, and then to North Dakota in 2016. With their 2023 run to the Frozen Four Quinnipiac has also joined a fairly exclusive group. Only Ferris State, Notre Dame and now Quinnipiac have a winning NCAA tournament record but have yet to claim a national title. By winning twice in Tampa in two weeks they'd be forever kicked out of that club, and I don't think they'd mind that sort of a revocation a bit.

The first semi-final on April 6 will send a team to the championship game looking for their 6th title, either BU or MN. The second one will pit Quinnipiac, looking for title number one against Michigan, who are seeking their 10th. Right now UM and Denver are at the top with 9 apiece.

So far this tournament has been pretty ho-hum. Winners have outscored losers 64-9. There have only been two 1-goal games, and just one contest has gone to OT. But I like the match-ups for the FF. These are the 4 highest scoring teams in the NCAA this season and MN and QU also boast stout defenses. I think they really have been the best 4 teams all year. QU and MN ran away with their leagues and spent the entire season among the top-4 in the PWR. Michigan at times has looked like the best team in the NCAA when they have had stretches of puting it all together, and BU has rahter quietly been among the best teams all year too. Hockey East has been a bit down of late (twice recently their regular season winner has missed the NCAAs and recent success by teams like UMAss and UMass-Lowell seems to have waned a bit) so I think BU was maybe off a few radar screens. Outside of a 4 game losing streak (the two Beanpot games and a sweep at the hands of NCAA participant Merrimack) BU has been basically unbeatable since the calendar started reading 2023. They have by far the longest winning streak (9 games in a row) of the 4 teams in the FF.

On paper Michigan has their work cut out for them. QU's offense nearly matches theirs, but QU plays defense, limits shots, never takes penalties and boasts a good PP and a top-5 PK when they do end up a man short. They play like Jackson's early teams in South Bend. Possess the puck, forecheck, opportunistic, disciplined and smart. Michigan can score in bunches and in a true track meet they'd probably have an advantage, but for that to happen QU really has to falter in their game plan. This is QU's best FF team in my opinion, and I like them in this one, 3-2.

Minnesota and Boston University both boast a ton of skilled players. Both schools have 8 players with at least 25 points. Both have blueliners who I think are already almost good enough to be NHL top-2 defensemen. I think MN is a little quicker, and I think has the edge in net. Drew Commesso has been playing great hockey, winning his last 9 starts and has only given up 8 goals in five postseason games so far, but I think Justen Close is a little better. The way MN scores and plays in front of him, I think Close has been a little overlooked at times this year. But his save % and GAA average are both significantly better than Commesso's and he's played about 200 minutes more in a much higher scoring league. Opposing teams in Hockey East scored 95 goals on average but opposing teams in the Big Ten scored 119. BU's winning streak notwithstanding, I like MN in the FF opener, 3-2.


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