I can pretty much guarantee that UConn's top seven average rating (from HoopGurlz, Prospects, Blue Star, and ASGR) will be about half of Notre Dame's top seven, even with Turner. (Lower the better.) So, despite all the hand wringing on the Boneyard, you should have a much better chance than us for running the table.

about the Huskies' ability to get through the season unscathed......as far as I'm aware, Notre Dame, Louisville, Baylor and South Carolina are going to be their toughest non conference games next season.........last year's team is one thing......losing Williams, Nurse and Stevens may be a blow to big to overcome unless Megan Williams and the freshmen make big strides......I'm assuming two losses but three would not be out of the question and any injuries to the returning three starters would be a disaster with UConn's very limited bench.........

Doubt leads to questioning which leads to wisdom. By the way the story of Heloise and Abelard is not only a poem by Pope (where the line "eternal sunshine of the spotless mind" comes from) but one of the most fascinating tales ever, and, not only is it true, but it takes place in the 12th century.

Anyway, UConn's 'possible' lineup is also fascinating. I now understand the injury concerns and I definitely share cbiebel's point about experience. It is huge. I'm trying to quantify how huge. But indulge me for a second on what may be, if all goes well, perhaps an historic line-up by UConn. Assuming all injuries heal properly—I realize that may be a questionable assumption (but not as questionable as Shepard getting clearance)—UConn could have a floor seven of Samuelson, Collier, Dangerfield, Walker, Coombs, Williams, and Nelson-Ododa. Six of those seven have an average rating of 5 or under. Coombs' average is 14.0 and only because Prospects ranked her 31st.

Six out of seven in the top 5! and the seventh ranked 14th—has that ever happened before in women's college basketball? We often worry about the wrong things, like terrorist attacks or plane crashes, instead of driving to the airport. UConn may have many worries, but recruiting, at the moment, is not one of them.

Look at Miss State.......how would their team last year fare in your ranking exercise? I would bet that Baylor, Tennessee and Texas all had more highly ranked players yet they were nowhere to be found in the final four.....regarding UConn........really difficult to replace two of the best defensive players in women's college basketball and a 6'6" mobile post coming off the bench regardless of the ranking of the players replacing them.........

But, they are the best indicator we have. (Ask Geno why he consistently goes after the highest rated recruits. Ratings aren't perfect by any means, but they are very, very good.)

because they simply don't have the skill set or attitude to fit with his team approach......I suspect that other coaches that collect highly ranked players like trading cards simply don't have the vision or the interest to make such judgments and they pay the price for it most seasons...........on rare occasion Geno takes a flyer on unrated players such as Irwin and Bent because they are selfless team first individuals and great students but their usefulness on the court has to be questioned......

I'm certainly not going to argue that ratings are the final word. At McGraw's Bench we pride ourselves, as does the Boneyard, that our coaches have distinctive eyes for talent. The catch phrase now is "mutual interest" which covers grades, attitude, character, all the things you mention and dozens more. Our coaches often come back to Muffet McGraw and say, "She is a great talent, but you're not going to want to coach her." So the "mutual interest" ends. Geno, I'm sure, is the same way.

However, that is the exception! I'm not going to insult your intelligence by believing you think ratings are not good indicators of talent or that Geno has not recruited the best teams over the last 10 years as indicated by the players' ratings. UConn has for some time now recruited the best players of all Division 1 team by ratings. Talent is the key, and the ratings are very good indicators of it. As you say, there are many other factors. I'm not seeing where this discussion is going.

By the way, you chose an excellent example.

Mississippi State played a hearty five (Vivians, William, McCowan, Holmes, and Johnson), all with more than 25 min/game. Their average rating is an unimpressive 65.7. Not terrible (at least they had top 100 recruits), but kudos for Vic Schaefer for spying something in recruits that others did not. (Of course, he had little choice. Napheesa Collier or Katie Lou Samuelson were not heading to Mississippi State.)

Tennessee is a special (head) case, but your other choices of Texas and Baylor are good also. Baylor played seven people with over 18 min/game. Those seven have an average rating of 22. (Notre Dame's six had a rating of 16.2. UConn's six, without Megan Walker, had an average rating of 12.9)

Texas played seven with Joyner Holmes (17.4 min/game). Those seven had an average rating of 18.4, not too shabby.

So, you make a good point with which I am in total agreement. You can't predict who will win by the rated talent level. That's why they play the games, and why we find them fascinating and exciting. However, if I ranked the top 25 teams by recruiting agency ratings and compared them to the top 25 teams at the end of each season, I am quite confident there would be incredible overlap. (Actually I could do that without too much trouble, but not now.) I can not think of one simple statistic before the season begins that would give a better indication as to who would be in the top 25, the final four, or the national champion. Talent wins games, or so all coaches believe.

Sometimes a factor rises like a phoenix to everyone's surprise, such as Victoria Vivians (rated 43.6) or Teaira McCowan (23.8) or Tennessee meltdown or crazy clutch shooting or injuries or transfers or Geno wearing a Notre Dame sweatshirt or whatever. It's why we love the game.

True, the UConn team returns missing 3 key parts. Indeed, they will have the toughest OOC schedule again to offset their mid-major AAC folks. Undefeated is not typically a goal for them or their coaching staff. 2-3 losses could occur. But as last two seasons have brusquely shown, going 36-0 into the FF semis is very nice, but no one likes losing their last game.

Could be worse, Warlick could be one's coach and her recent track record does not include even getting to the FF at all. Heck Mulkey, Frese, and McCallie aren't exactly frequent flyers to the FF either of late.

Geno Auriemma, Tara Vanderveer, and Muffet McGraw.

Coale, Frese and Mulkey have coached in 3, but only 2 in the last 10 years. Hatchell also has 3, but hasn't been in one since 2007.

The more you look at the stats, the more impressive ND's last 8 years have been, even if they've been overshadowed by UConn's performance.

It's also experience. ND will have 4 senior starters next year and a junior starter. That is not insignificant. UConn will likely have 2 senior starters (Collier and KLS) a junior (Dangerfield), and I'm guessing a sophomore (Walker), and I'm not sure who will be stepping into the 5th spot, maybe ONO, but she'd be a freshman doing that, and Auriemma generally doesn't like freshmen starting if he can help it unless they're THAT good.

next season.......Samuelson is coming off of foot surgery, will she be back to 100%......can Crystal Dangerfield step it up to the next level and will she have to deal with shin splints all season like last year, will Megan Walker become the player we all thought she was as a high school senior.......and who will be the fifth starter.......C Williams is a singular talent but can she earn Geno's trust as a freshman.......same goes for Nelson Ododa.......is Camara the player we saw at Kentucky or the player we saw coming off the bench late in the fourth quarter.......how about Mikayla Coombs a highly ranked high school recruit who got limited minutes before her season was ended by a serious medical condition.......frankly nobody knows if she's playing basketball next season for UConn or anybody else......

Two years ago we all figured UCONN was going to have a down year after losing so many great players. Even though they lost in the semifinals, they were the best team in the country. 2018-2019 looks like a similar situation (although someone should spank Geno's hand if Walker isn't ready). I expect they'll be a much improved team by tournament time, even if they sputter a little at the start.

She may be cleared to start the season, but I doubt she has been able to participate fully in strength and conditioning during the offseason. She can't match the intensive weight work the healthy players are doing.

We saw this with Brianna Turner two years ago after shoulder surgery. It was February before she had the strength and stamina to play like her sophomore self. In Samuelson's case, leg S&C is likely to be curtailed as she rehabs her foot.

high school........I believe she came back from surgery last year and played well without full training........the hope is that she will be ready to go by the season opener.......the real question is whether she can log 35 plus minutes per game without a recurrence.....if not UConn will be in trouble

for a few games and the medical staff found a blood clot in her leg.......missed the last part of the season and we haven't heard anything since.......I was ticked off that she wasn't getting enough playing time last season........I have no idea what her mindset is right now.......

JR Richard was one of the best pitchers in MLB in the late 1970s. Nobody took his complaints of pain in the arm and shoulder seriously in 1980 until he collapsed on the field before a game. Emergency surgery revealed a life-threatening blood clot in his neck. He never pitched again.

Mindset is part of the equation, but ongoing treatment might make playing difficult no matter how driven to play she is.

They might mention a few games or even list the nonconference games, but ND usually doesn't officially release it until it's been approved by the Faculty Senate. I used to make a game of it by searching for the schedules of likely opponents and seeing if they mention ND. I can try to make some educated guesses.

Considering that ND's conference schedule was actually not favorable last year (at Louisville, at FSU, at Duke), they should have a bit more favorable setup this year. The trickier likely road games in conference are NC St., Syracuse, Miami, and Va Tech (I have a feeling that they're going to be on the rise with their new coach).

As far as OOC games, ND had a killer road OOC schedule last year, too. After opening with an easy game at home, they had 7 games away from home (some neutral court), including true road games against Oregon St., Michigan, and UConn. I think ND might be playing those 2 of those 3 teams next year (definitely UConn, but OSU wasn't on the schedule the year before last). Michigan was part of the "ACC/Big 10 challenge". ND hosted Tennessee, but I'm not sure if that series is being renewed. ND usually plays DePaul, and if so, that will be a road game. ND hosted Marquette for the first time since leaving the BE, so that might be a home and home setup. Western Kentucky also doesn't have a previous game, so that might be a home game for ND. Penn also hasn't been balanced yet with a home game. ND hosted Michigan St. but that was the 2nd part of a home and home, so there's no guarantee that's going to continue.

Of course, the return game for these series might not be next year (sometimes they skip a year).

So basically, OOC my guess based on last year's schedule:

Confirmed:
UConn
A Big 10 team (ACC/Big 10 Challenge)

Probable:
DePaul
Oregon St.
Marquette
W. Kentucky
Penn

Possible:
Tennessee

ND was in Gulf Coast Showcase (where they played USF and South Carolina). I don't know what kind of tournament they might play in this year.