Yes, we are speculating.

However, "if you wake up in the morning and the ground is wet, can we speculate with some confidence that it rained during the night?" (That is a line, or something close to that, from somewhere…Sherlock Holmes, or Fr. Brown, or maybe a movie. If it rings a bell with anyone, please give me your best speculation of where it's from. It starts a conversation on evidence.)

I agree that "All this speculation can only" [I would say "may"] "cause confusion and lead to false beliefs." To be honest though I can not think of a likely scenario where the girls and USA Basketball did not believe that the ND duo intended to play for the USA team.

That said, I'll like to back you up in your implication that perhaps this should not be overblown. Both girls have posted retweets of the ND WBB picture of the four freshmen with Muffet and all are smiling. Both also have retweeted Anthony Anderson's tweet including the USA tweet of the girls stepping aside for new team members being added. There are no explanations or (positive or negative) comments. The girls, at least publicly, appear to be happily moved in and ready to start life with Notre Dame and Notre Dame Basketball.