First Reveal
by RISteve (2019-02-11 19:53:09)
Edited on 2019-02-11 19:54:22

Albany:
Miss St
UConn
Oregon St
Miami

Greensboro:
Baylor
ND
Maryland
South Carolina

Portland:
Oregon
Nc State
Iowa
Gonzaga

Chicago:
Louisville
Stanford
Marquette
Iowa State





We might be able to affect Louisville & NC St.'s ranking
by NDoggie78  (2019-02-12 08:43:29)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Which would affect not only the seedings, but the regionals assigned by the committee trying to seperate the conference match-ups. Especially if 3 ACC teams remain in the top 8 (probably unlikely as NC St has ND and UofL - but they could win both)


IMO-Louisville must lose a reg season game to lose a 1 Seed
by Domerduck  (2019-02-12 11:11:01)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

plus lose the ACC tourney to us. With 1 loss & UConn victories, Louisville and Baylor are the top 2 seeds if they win out. and the committee has projected their locations. I also think either could lose once to their top rival (ND & Texas respectively) and still be a one seed at the same place. For ND to get Chicago they have to pass Louisville and send them somewhere else. That only happens if Louisville loses a regular season conference game and ND wins out including the ACC tourney so they both have the same record. I don't see how that happens since their 2 tough teams they still have to play, NC State & Miami, are at home and their two away games left are against teams with losing records.

The other chaos which could affect things is if two of the other top 6 (UConn, Oregon, Miss State, Baylor) lose 2 or more games somehow (highly unlikely) which allows Louisville & ND to both have 1 seeds (like last year). ND would be 29-3 with 2 wins over Louisville if we beat them in the ACC championship while Louisville would be 30-2. There still might be a debate of who doesn't get Chicago, but my guess Louisville will be going farther since we ended strong. Still where the 2nd ACC 1 Seed goes depends on which teams "choked) in their last few games and tourney and dropped to a 2 seed.

I just don't think any of those scenarios are going to happen, except us winning the ACC tourney, which I don't think that alone gives us a 1 Seed given our bad loss to NC.


If ND beats Louisville again
by Orangutan  (2019-02-12 11:21:59)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

It's close, but I think ND has to be ahead of Louisville on the s-curve if ND beats Louisville again.

Yes, Louisville would have one fewer loss. ND would also have the #1 RPI, #1 SOS, more quality wins AND two head-to-head wins over Louisville.

So I don't necessarily agree that Louisville needs to lose before the ACC tourney for ND to pass them.

The question for me is whether that would put ND ahead of Miss St. or UConn.


Records against top 16
by FightingIrishRadio  (2019-02-12 17:28:18)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

ND will have played 8 of the 16 teams slotted into the top four seeds in the four regions by the end of the regular season -- a number with the potential to go up in the ACC tournament. Right now, ND is 5-2 against the eight (W: Louisville, Oregon State, Iowa, Gonzaga, Marquette, L: UConn, Miami) with a road game remaining at NC State. So, a potential to go 6-2 vs the top 16 before the ACC tournament starts.

Louisville is currently 2-1 (W: UConn, Arizona State, L: ND) against these 16 teams -- with home games yet to be played against Miami and NC State -- they have the potential to go 4-1. Louisville will also have the chance to solidify its position in the ACC tournament against at least one and perhaps two of the current top 16.

Oregon is currently 3-0 (Arizona State, Stanford and Mississippi State) against this field with three regular season games remaining -- a home and home with Oregon State and at Arizona State. The Ducks could well go 6-0 against the top 16 in the regular season). And, they have the potential for more quality wins in the Pac 12 tournament.

Mississippi State stands at 2-1 (W: Marquette and South Carolina, L: Oregon) with one game left at South Carolina -- so a max of 3-1.

Baylor is 4-1 (W: UConn, Arizona State, South Carolina and at home vs Iowa State, L: Stanford) with a game at Iowa State remaining.

UConn is 2-2 (W: ND and South Carolina, L: Baylor and Louisville) against the 16 -- and no possibility to go higher. They have one fairly tough game remaining at UCF this weekend -- and after that, their strength of schedule will drop quite a bit given the weakness of their remaining conference opponents. The Huskies remaining games are against teams with current RPI's of 14 (UCF), 101, 146, 149, 230, 246.

Here are the current strength of schedules on Realtime RPI for ND and the five teams ahead of the Irish: 1) ND, 5) Baylor, 7) Louisville, 15) Oregon, 26) UConn, 41) Mississippi State.

I went through the schedules of the five teams currently ranked ahead of ND -- if I missed any of the other five playing one of the 16, please help me update this.

The ACC schedule worked out pretty well for Louisville this season. The Cardinals will have played four home games (UNC, Syracuse, Miami and NC State) and three away games (ND, Clemson and FSU) against the top half of the conference. ND will have played two home games (Louisville and FSU) and five on the road (Miami, UNC, Clemson, NC State and Syracuse).

If ND wins out through the ACC tournament, they will have a pretty strong case to move back to a one seed. However, if they can't move higher than a 2 seed, they have no one to blame but themselves for dropping games that they should have won with anything approaching their normal offensive output.


Great analysis/ We've beat lots of great teams BUT lost to
by Domerduck  (2019-02-12 17:56:31)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

one team we shouldn't have. That's why we are #6. The other teams didn't beat as many good teams as us, BUT they didn't lose to any team they shouldn't have lost to. Yes ND has only themselves to blame.


Should Oregon have lost to Michigan State?
by Orangutan  (2019-02-13 12:05:53)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

It's curious to me that people value not losing so much more highly than actually winning, but that's another rant.

It's just strange to me that you are so casually dismissive of "the other teams didn't beat as many good teams". That's a big deal.


No,but that was in East Lansing on 12/9 and Oregon did not
by Domerduck  (2019-02-13 13:06:52)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

play D like it does now. They have switched to an effective zone (much like ND did last year) which has been fantastic. They have the longest win streak in WBB at 16 straight games including being the only team to beat Mississippi State and then Sunday's beat down at Stanford: 88-48. The two games Friday and Monday night with the Beavers will be very tough and I am looking forward to them as I will be at both. Monday night will probably be sold out in Corvallis and be a very tough crowd. We will see how they do.

MSU has pretty much stayed ranked since that win, even if only 22/24. That loss will definitely be forgiven, but they are the third ranked 1 loss team behind Louisville's 1 loss at ND and Baylor's at Stanford, but ahead of MSU they beat. Also if you remember ND was still a 1 seed on Creme's projection even after their 2nd loss to NC. It's the 3rd loss that puts us down to a 2 Seed. Oregon loses again, they'll drop.


That's a long answer to a yes/no question *
by Orangutan  (2019-02-13 13:19:14)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


I believe you are correct *
by Murcer68  (2019-02-12 17:09:10)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


Agree with this 100%
by drmurray  (2019-02-12 11:41:09)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Also, Michigan sucks


Louisville would be picked over ND
by ufl  (2019-02-12 11:17:52)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

even if they lost to ND twice? ND would have 3 losses vs. their two (if we survive the rest of the regular season) but those two losses should carry some weight.


That NC loss was really bad. None of the top 12 teams other
by Domerduck  (2019-02-12 15:30:50)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

than ND have a single loss to team that has never been ranked this year. As much as I agree that two wins over Louisville would be great, Louisville's resume would still be better. Their only 2 losses would be to a top 6 team away and also on a neutral court. They would have beaten 7 ranked teams and all 3 teams that beat ND including UConn who also beat us by double digits. I just don't see how they lose their 1 Seed to a 3 loss ND. especially if MSU, Oregon, and Baylor still are 1 seeds with 1 loss each. Also a 2 loss UConn would have a better chance to take Louisville's 1 Seed than ND even though L'ville beat UConn.


NC and Miami
by hempfield75  (2019-02-13 01:56:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Lets just say we win the remaining games on our schedule....We play NC and Miami again in the ACC Tournament and bet them both by say 20 points. Then we beat Louisville in the finals just say 8 to 10 points...Would the wins over Miami and NC in the tournament nil out the losses early in the season. Plus beating a team in the two three for a second time put us more in the position for a 1 seed over one of the teams ahead of us....Thanks...

SEG/Chief


If that's L'ville only other loss, I don't think so. Still
by Domerduck  (2019-02-13 03:39:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

it's possible the committee might put 29-3 ND ahead of 30-2 L'ville in your scenario with two of our losses avenged, ND owning the ACC Tourney championship, while L'ville won the ACC regular season outright. Even with that scenario 30-2 UConn and the three 31-1 teams (Baylor, Oregon, and MSU) who are all both their conference champ and tourney champ would most certainly have one seeds over 29-3 ND. Not sure all that will happen as much is still to be played, but IMO ND is going to need some help if it wants the 1 seed back.

Ultimately the most important thing that ND can get is to go to Chicago even as a two Seed. It's certainly better than going to Albany or Portland if UConn and Oregon are also there. If winning out and beating Louisville helps us do that than that's great.


ND Chances being 1 Seed
by hempfield75  (2019-02-13 22:56:56)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Thanks for your input. Great insight....I agree with you. ND will need outside help to get back to 1 seed....But I think they still have a great shot at getting seeded in Chicago, as long as the keep winning...Thanks

SEG/Chief


I believe you are incorrect in your assertion.
by Fighting_Artichoke  (2019-02-13 15:05:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

If Notre Dame and Louisville both win out until the ACC tournament final, and the Irish then defeat the Cardinals, we will have one more loss than Louisville but far more better wins, including going 2-0 vs. Louisville. The committee values good wins over bad losses, so any way you look at it, Notre Dame would have the stronger resume.

Louisville cannot control their conference schedule, but their OOC schedule (ASU at neutral site, Kentucky and UConn at home) was definitely less challenging than Notre Dame's (Gonzaga and Oregon St at neutral site, Iowa and UConn at home, away game @Marquette). We are top-ranked in OOC RPI and OOC SOS. Louisville is 3rd in OOC RPI and 17th in OOC SOS.

You cannot just count losses and order teams on the S-curve that way. Remember 31-1 Baylor last season? Ranked 2nd with only one loss but relegated to a 2-seed because of a weak schedule. Meanwhile Notre Dame (ranked 5th/6th in the polls) with a 29-3 record gets a 1-seed. Baylor goes on to lose in the E8 to Oregon St., while ND won it all.

Remember Maryland in 2017? Ranked 5th/3rd in the polls with a gaudy 30-2 record, but relegated to a 3-seed because of a weak schedule. They fell to 10-seed Oregon in the E8.


I hope you are right and I'm wrong, we'll see. *
by Domerduck  (2019-02-13 15:26:47)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


If ND wins out, we would have wins over 8 ranked teams + ACC
by NDoggie78  (2019-02-12 16:27:02)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

tourney wins over ranked teams - probably at least 2 more

One other thing, Louisville has only beaten 1 ranked opponent away from home and 1 at a neutral site. If ND wins out, they will have beaten 4 ranked opponents away from home and 1 at a neutral site. (And 6 if you count UT and DePaul who were ranked when ND played them)

While UNC was a bad loss, Tarheels have now beaten a #1 and a #2 seed (when they played them). They only lost by 7 at Louisville and by 1 against FSU. They have been inconsistent, but talented enough to beat top teams


I totally agree L'ville has an easier ACC schedule with ND &
by Domerduck  (2019-02-13 11:31:13)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

FSU as their only tough ACC teams they had to play away. Also the fact they get to play UVA & Pitt twice (combined current records: 19-30 & 4-18 in the ACC) was already unfair. That's by far the worst combined record of any ACC teams "rivals' (ND's teams are currently 29-19). Also I totally agree our OOC challenges were far tougher. As I've said before we should be open to having Louisville our rival (replacing Ga Tech & Va respectively), with home & away each year like we had with UConn in the Big East, as it would mean another ESPN game every year as I am sure they'd televise both.

That said we just should not have lost those three games, especially to unranked NC (despite it's talent) when the 5 teams ahead of us have only lost 1 or 2 games and those that lost 2 (even assuming Louisville loses again to us) would have only lost to top 6 teams and not on their home floor. The teams with one loss only lost to top 25 teams away. They may not have had as tough a schedule as us, but they took care of business with the teams they were scheduled to play.


You seem very invested in ND being a lower seed *
by Orangutan  (2019-02-13 12:08:50)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


I guess it depends on how they weight
by ufl  (2019-02-12 15:49:56)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

quality of losses versus head to head.


Do They Weigh Good Wins (More Than Bad Losses)?
by dillon77  (2019-02-12 16:32:33)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I seem to recall hearing Creme bring that up. And I also remember him bringing up that the NC loss might be considered in light of Jackie not being there.

However, ND didn't help that by then losing to Miami....

This is one of those times that I fall back on the old "...look at the next game in front of you" and take care of what you can.


We would have got away with one of those recent losses,
by Domerduck  (2019-02-12 18:03:08)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

but not both. Now we will stay behind the top 5 teams ahead of us if they keep winning. You are correct, just win the next games ahead of us and hope for the best. Lat year the team reacted well when less was expected of them. Maybe now with the lower Seed we may catch the same magic again. Lots to be played still.


I'm not sure exactly how the "experts" decide if the regions
by McLean_ND  (2019-02-11 20:11:38)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

are "balanced" fairly. There was some discussion of this on the halftime show. Just adding up the rankings of the teams, the Albany region is at 38, Greensboro (with ND) at 25, Portland at 42, and Chicago at 38, so by that approach, ND is in the toughest region (at least in terms of the four top teams there). As others have pointed out, it doesn't really matter at this point though.

Was surprised to see the committee skip the 15 (Texas), 16 (Syracuse) and 17 (Kentucky) ranked teams and instead put in Iowa St (ranked 18) and Miami (ranked 20)


Creme agrees with you and used the committee ratings to say
by Domerduck  (2019-02-12 11:18:01)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

how screwed up they are. To me his logic is correct that moving Baylor and ND to Chicago might solve things but he thinks they are rewarding Louisville as the ACC team that should be able to drive to their tourney which originally made sense to me. Still the balance issue is real. he also questions Miami and wondered why FSU or Cuse didn't get the edge.


ISU is probably getting help from the RPI
by cbiebel  (2019-02-11 22:19:31)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Theirs is around #10.

As for Miami, I've got no clue.


This doesn't surprise me. Baylor had 1000 miles+ to either
by Domerduck  (2019-02-11 20:08:47)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Greensboro Chicago, while it's <300 miles from Louisville to Chicago vs 470+ to Greensboro. I didn't think they'd make us go to Portland or Albany and Louisville and us are going to be in different regions. Since MSU is lowest 1 seed i figured they'd get Albany and UConn. The biggest surprise is NC State as a 2 seed, but I think that will change.


Yech
by NOBBYDOMER  (2019-02-11 20:03:58)     Delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I know they all will change but I don’t like the Baylor matchup.