A match in hand with the point differential they have is hardly an advantage. It could very well be one beating united away and the other not. Liverpool had their chance to win one of the last two. They didnt.
I'd give them just about the same odds as winning champions league at this point. But without vvd, I'd say its highly unlikely too.
And VvD won't be a part of the half that are defenders. That's not a good recipe for leg 1. It might not be much better for leg 2.
I can see the first leg ending up 3-3 or something like that. It will come down to Liverpool scoring in Munich, I believe.