So how did we do predicting CL?
by DakotaDomer (2019-12-12 07:11:07)
Edited on 2019-12-12 07:11:31

Advancing without drama
A -PSG and RM
B - Bayern, Spurs
C - Mancity
D- Juventus
E-Liverpool, Napoli
F-Barca
Advancing with drama/excitement
C - Atalanta
D- Atletico...a little
F- Dortmund
G - RB Leipzig, Lyon
H- Valencia, Chelsea

Positives
wcnitz and iudomer backing RB leipzig as best in their group
Me calling group H as a fight for top 2

Negatives
Me thinking Brugge would even put up a fight
HTown thinking G and H were straightforward
Spade thinking zenit would benefit from their pot 1 seed...still came in 4th





The problem with being a low league pot 1 team
by wcnitz  (2019-12-12 08:51:15)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Is that it greatly increases your odds of seeing a pot 2 team from a much better league due to collision rules. In this case, that didn't even happen to them and despite having a pretty mediocre team (Benfica) in that group, they still sucked.

Leipzig got slotted low just because of how they finished, but ended up getting the easiest group.


In the end, no one outside the big 5 leagues advanced right?
by DakotaDomer  (2019-12-12 11:37:33)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

4 La Liga, EPL
3 Bundesliga, Serie A
2 Ligue 1

I feel like recently there’s always been 1 wild card that advances


First time in the history of the champions league
by miamioh_irishfan  (2019-12-13 16:51:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

That no teams from outside the top 5 leagues (England, Spain, France, Italy, Germany) qualified for the knockouts.


Second Tier knockout stage teams 2013-2019
by spade  (2019-12-13 10:00:54)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I was cheering for several of these teams, so I did some research. And DakotaDomer, you're wrong only in that not only has there been at least one team, but there has always been TWO teams to advance. So yes, this is pretty rare, as in the past 7 years at least 2 teams outside the big 5 leagues have made it to the knockout rounds. Although this comes with serious caveats about who usually advances. Here are the past years starting from 2014 (knockout rounds happen in the spring so 2014 refers to 2013-2014 season).

2013: 4 Porto, Celtic, Shaktar, Galatasaray
2014: 3 Galatasaray, Zenit, Olympiacos
2015: 3 Porto, Basel, Shaktar
2016: 5 Zenit, Gent, Benfica, PSV, Dynamo
2017: 2 Benfica, Porto
2018: 4 Beşiktaş, Basel, Shaktar, Porto
2019: 2 Ajax, Porto
2020: 0 Suprising

You can see that in several instances they are the same teams, with a Portuguese team finding it's way past 7 times in 7 seasons, but also a Ukrainian powerhouse advances half the time. in fact, of the 23 times a non-big 5 league advanced, 16 are repeat teams, so the teams that do make it through are usually the same certain teams. In the past 7 years, that amounts to 6 semi-perennial teams, Porto, Basel, Shaktar, Galatasaray, Benfica and Zenit who have advanced at least twice.

Also, of these prior-to-advance teams, 7 of them (out of the 13 non-Big 5 group stage places) were in the group stage this year; Porto, Olympiacos, Shaktar, Genk, Benfica, Ajax and Galatasaray. However it just so happened, none of them went through. So the minnows' chances were certainly there, especially Zenit, Benfica, Ajax and Shaktar who all missed advancing by 1 point. It clearly seems like an aberration this year that not one of the 7 semi-perennial knockout round teams moved on.


Typically been more than 1.
by NDBass  (2019-12-12 13:39:10)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I don't know if that just has to do with timing or if it is related to the amount of money made/spent by the top clubs and how that impacts coefficients and seeding/grouping. I task you with keeping up with this in future years so we can see if it is a trend.


And what will you be doing the next couple of years?
by DakotaDomer  (2019-12-13 09:53:02)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Nothing?


Forgetting *
by NDBass  (2019-12-13 11:50:50)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post