Random Thoughts today
by wcnitz (2020-02-01 14:40:02)
Edited on 2020-02-01 14:40:51

I don’t think Liverpool will lose this season unless they’re hit with an injury bug. Just too consistent defensively. Maybe someone steals a point off them, but that’s it. Finally, Arsenal fans will shut up about the “untouchables”. More like “lotsofdrawables”.

United got a good player in Fernandes. Only like six more starters to replace and they’ll be a top team again.

Dortmund is going to have Haaland until summer 2021 at most. A poacher with some creativity. The PL will come calling with truckloads of money. Saw his buyout was 75m, guarantee Dortmund would have jacked that much higher if they could have.

Bayern, top of the table. Flick is getting it done, and Müller the raumdeuter is back.


Pool only needs 91 points to win it now
by fontoknow  (2020-02-02 23:59:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

They have thirteen matches left to get those 18 points.

6 wins.


There are some juicy scenarios as to when they'll clinch.
by NDBass  (2020-02-03 14:19:45)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

While I'm content with them having to do it by winning 6 wins, I'd really love to be able to clinch the title at Goodison. Or before and make Everton give them a guard of honor. Not sure which one I'd like the most.

The ideal scenario would probably be clinching at Goodison via an Origi 90'+4' goal that hits both posts.


Honor guard at Goodison would mean winning title with 85 pts
by fontoknow  (2020-02-03 14:35:11)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

winning the title with 9 matches left would be unfathomably bad for the premiere league.


I tend to think it is unfathomably bad
by mitquinn  (2020-02-03 17:37:05)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

but at the same time it’s not Liverpool’s problem.

I don’t have any concrete diagnosis to why City is not firing on all cylinders, but I can see the bad business of Arsenal, United, Tottenham and to some degree Chelsea in years past that have put them in a their own bind.

One random thought I had: is there any linkage to a decline in league play after the homegrown rule took effect?


Is the Premier League that bad or is Liverpool that good?
by irishlaw2010  (2020-02-03 20:12:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Last year, all 4 of Premier League teams advanced to the CL quarterfinals and the final was all English. Additionally, the EL final was all English.

And this year once again, all 7 English teams advanced out of their respective CL and EL groups.

Even within the Premier League the evidence doesn't seem to support a total collapse at the top, the average top 3 finishers over the last 10 years have had the following average point totals with the given ranges:

1) 89 points (100-80)
2) 82 points (97-71)
3) 74 points (82-70)

The current top-3 are on pace for the following finishes:

1) Liverpool - 110.96 points
2) Man City - 77.52 points
3) Leicester - 74.48 points

I think there is something to your point that the next tier of teams has been handicapped either with dumb spending, transfer bans, etc. But is that really different than mediocrity that other big clubs have had at times (Man U before Ferguson showed up, Liverpool in the 2nd half of the Hicks/Gillette era, etc.).



The EPL was once the crown landing spot in transfers
by mitquinn  (2020-02-04 00:07:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Not that they are lacking in quality of transfers, but quantity of quality. It’s a drastic difference in where agents will have their players land since the 90s and 00s.

Big money changes in ownership (PSG prime example), agent mark ups have become huge leading some squads unable to meet their demands, loan market shelving signed players etc. this is why I’m wondering if the homegrown rule has worked against their best intentions of resurrecting English ball.

Unless Brexit royally fucks up work visas, I don’t think they’re going down the path of becoming the next Serie A, but definitely seems off compared to other eras.


Bit of both
by wcnitz  (2020-02-03 22:13:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

City has struggled with both chemistry and injuries. Nobody else was going to push Liverpool this year. Leicester has had a very good year, but they were never going to hold up. Tottenham changed far too little to ever have a shot - Jose is making them better, but they need far more changes. United has a loooooooong way to go. Chelsea was both in transition and transfer banned in the summer.

It was basically the perfect storm to have Liverpool shatter records if they could remain healthy, which they have.

I do think they are at risk for the CL simply due to match fatigue - it will be to their advantage to clinch the PL title as soon as possible and maybe NOT focus too much on the unbeaten streak. Who knows with Klopp, though - he may be focusing more on that because they won the CL last year.

edit: Oh, and speaking of match fatigue - tired of beating this drum, but the PL and the FA really need to get their shit together when it comes to scheduling and stop the goddamn replays/2nd legs if they're keeping both cup competitions. It's fucking stupid.


One man's thoughts.
by Porpoiseboy  (2020-02-03 22:04:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

It should be a much closer race than it is. LFC and their fans need to give plenty of thanks Man City has left so many points wanting. They have 5 more goals than LFC - they're still strong as hell poking balls into the net. But, because they have given up 29 goals, they have not optimized their standings. LFC, by contrast has given up only 15 goals. HUGE difference.

So to your question, my thought is Man City has taken a TON of stress off LFC in that regard - it should be much closer.

Leicester's having a good season, but a few head scratchers themselves. They could be putting much more pressure on LFC themselves.

Chelsea's had quite a rebuilding season with many ups and downs. They probably get a pass this season for not putting more pressure on LFC.

Tottenham's been a confusing shit show.

Those squads should have placed the most pressure on LFC. Man City has not been able to get out of their own way, and the rest have had too many let downs through the season to put that pressure on.

Closing thoughts - Championship Teams play like Champions before they are Champions. If we speak only of the PL, LFC's played like Champions all season. They have not played perfectly, they've had some lucky breaks, they've had some near-misses go their way. But not a man loafs, they have their heads in the game at every position, they have a good bench, they have both good D and O, and their goalkeeping has been stellar, even the sub goalie.

So, the combination of lucky having some of the stress taken off plus playing like that stress is still there has lead to such a wide lead from top to second. It will be interesting to see how the season ends, because as many understand regression to the mean nearly always happens. LFC just needs to keep playing like Champions and all will be well.


I tend to agree
by TCFC  (2020-02-04 13:53:00)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I think Liverpool are outstanding but that doesn't mean winning the league should have been this easy.

There is a 36 point difference between 1st and 5th, which to me is staggering. Heck, Sheffield United is currently in 6th with Wolves (and ManU) just a point behind.

Just look at the last five matches for the teams behind Liverpool:
L-W-D-W-W
D-W-L-L-W
D-D-L-W-D
W-W-D-L-L
W-L-D-W-L

No one has even been remotely as close to being as consistent as Liverpool has been.


Liverpool is a sledgehammer
by wcnitz  (2020-02-03 17:57:36)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

City is a high end power screwdriver running on low voltage.


At least we enjoyed the ride...
by iudomer  (2020-02-02 15:26:07)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Hope Dortmund dont sell Sancho and play a full season him and Haarland until 2021.

They are fun to watch. As is Bayern.


Don’t see them keeping Sancho past this summer
by wcnitz  (2020-02-02 21:20:42)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Not sure his value will of much higher than it is now while he’s still there. They just can’t get to Bayern”s revenue levels, hard to blame them for cashing out. They do really good business.


They will go unbeaten
by mitquinn  (2020-02-01 16:35:31)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

but you’ll never shut us up about 2004.

I wouldn’t rank this EPL as competitive. It’s mediocre at best.


Lost to Boro twice *
by alleghenyirish  (2020-02-05 08:48:46)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post


“Golden Era”
by mitquinn  (2020-02-05 09:24:16)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Yes we’re still laughing.


Mediocre league - with 6 teams still playing in Europe.
by NDMike2001  (2020-02-04 09:00:24)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

In 2018-19 all four EPL teams advanced to the group stage. 2 teams played in the Championship match.

Europa was an all EPL final as well.

In 2019-20 all four EPL teams have advanced to the group stage. Both EPL teams won there group in Europa.

Don't confuse parity with mediocrity. EPL may lack two dominant teams like they had last year, but the results in Europe suggest that the league far from mediocre.

And if I had to guess why the EPL is struggling to find another dominant team, I'd say that star players don't want to have to scratch and claw just to play in the Champions League. If I'm a European star, it's certainly not lost on me that UCL finalist Tottenham was one draw away from spending some cold winter days in the far reaches of the continental shelf. Guys like Eriksen and Alexis aren't leaving the EPL for tougher competition that's for sure.


Minor Nit - 7 EPL Teams Still in European Competitions
by statsdomer  (2020-02-04 09:28:55)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Wolves finished second in their Europa League group and play Espanyol in Round of 32.


What’s the biggest 1st vs 2nd point spread?
by DakotaDomer  (2020-02-02 14:48:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I would assume Liverpool is going to destroy the mark but I’m not an EPL historian.


The current 22 point lead is a record.
by NDBass  (2020-02-02 19:24:25)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

I assume the record was either 20 or 21 because I didn't see any mention of a record when they had the 19 point lead. I haven't seen anything about the record for the spread between 1st and 2nd at the end of the season.


I believe it’s a record as it stands
by wcnitz  (2020-02-02 21:22:08)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

At least since they instituted the three point win/1 point draw system.


Yes. Biggest gap at the end of a day.
by NDBass  (2020-02-02 22:13:10)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

From an OptaJoe tweet yesterday, with the gap not changing today:

"22 - Liverpool will end today 22 points clear of second-placed Manchester City in the Premier League table; this is the biggest lead any league-leader has ever had at the end of a day in English top-flight history. Gap."

I don't like that way of measuring because teams play on different days. I'd rather it be the end of a game week, but whatever. Games in hand can make that weird as well.

From This is Anfield:

"The only other team to have 20 or more point lead since 1888 was Manchester City (over Manchester United) in May 2018 and it lasted 24 hours and stayed at 19 points for what little remained of the season."


There's a love for live tables in soccer...
by wcnitz  (2020-02-03 07:58:17)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

What's funny about it is they so rarely mention games in hand, which is just as important as positioning at the END of matchday.


The live tables are unequal anyways
by DakotaDomer  (2020-02-03 09:30:19)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

The full season is (in theory) as equal as it can possibly be. But that equality doesn’t exist after any of the previous 37 match days. So the table is relatively meaningless no matter what.

None of that applies to here...Liverpool will undoubtedly shatter the point difference record.


One thing I think goes unsung...
by Porpoiseboy  (2020-02-01 15:38:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Alisson never takes a second off in net for LFC. The backs in front of him make his job simpler. But when he's needed he's there. His concentration is great, and he plays his role great. He puts himself in the right spot based on what corner his defense paints him into.

Wolverpampers is playing well this season and has trouble closing goals. They could have easily gotten a point or points from Becker if he'd have napped at all. He's there when they need him!


Tied for the league lead in clean sheets.
by NDBass  (2020-02-01 23:08:59)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

He's done that in 7 fewer games than his co-leader. He was subbed off after 39 minutes due to injury in one of his 17 appearances. He had not allowed a goal up until his injury in the game.

EDIT: Just saw this one - Since joining Liverpool, he has more clean sheets (30) in the PL than goals conceded (29) in the PL. I think that is decent.


I think that is decent. *
by Porpoiseboy  (2020-02-02 17:04:35)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post