However cricket has a large database to use

There is practically no information that compares times for a transgender female versus those times were as a male before treatments. Nor are we sure whether her times will get slower the longer she is taking treatments. I'm sure many will vociferously claim that Lia is a female and should be allowed to compete without a penalty.

As to your cricket analogy, the Duckworth-Lewis-Sterne method is used to set a winning target number of runs scored when weather conditions limit the number of balls the team batting second will face. Teams play fairly conservatively in their first overs (sets of 6 balls) to avoid making out and then play riskier shots and score at a higher rate later on. So just averaging the rate team 1 scored runs is not a fair way of setting a target in this case.