I think we'll see a mildly-effective work stoppage in 2021
by Brew City Domer (2019-01-11 13:26:06)

In reply to: At what point will the baseball players realize it's over  posted by HTownND

What's really driving the issue in player compensation here is that 1. players are being paid the least when their aging curve suggests they are at their peak performance, and 2. owners are no dummies and are paying players based on future results and not past performance. This means that, as players are freed from the shackles of team control, their skills are in decline, and they're being compensated as such.

The issue here is that those with power within the MLBPA are older players who still want to get paid, but their windows are already closing. The solution looks something like arbitration eligibility upon placement on the 40-man roster, for 3-4 years, and a subsequent restricted free agency period where teams can match offers extended to their own players by other teams. However, those are big concessions by the owners, and veteran players are unlikely to horse trade and/or skip paychecks to pursue those concessions.

We're more likely to see changes at the margins - higher tax threshold with lower penalties, removal of super-two status, and maybe a year flipped from team control to arbitration. Free agents will continue to see shorter deals for less money, because their skills will not justify anything more.

As a Brewers fan I'm thrilled to be taking advantage in this environment. FAs are an actual, affordable option for small market teams. Of the six best acquisitions Stearns has made, four (Cain, Grandal, Aguilar, Chacin) have been market signings. Make hay while the sun is shining, Mr. Stearns.