thanks Uncle Steve!
"The deal contains a full no-trade clause, a $75 million signing bonus, an opt-out after five seasons and no deferred money. The Mets will have the ability to void Soto’s opt-out clause after the 2029 season if they boost the average annual value of the final 10 years of his deal from $51 million to $55 million, according to a source. In that case, the overall deal would be for 15 years and $805 million -- a $53.66 million AAV." Just another reason to qit watching.
1. He's 26 and has a 15-year contract. How many of those years will he have elite performances and will/when will he drag the team down with Pujols-like years?
2. Is he capable of becoming a difference-maker for the entire team (I'd argue he hasn't been up tp now) or is he just an upgrade?
More discussion.
Let's say he doesn't opt out and hits the escalator.
In 10 years from now, 2034, he'll be 36 and getting paid $55M a year.
Do you think that will actually have him in the top 20 of player salaries?
Hell Judge is getting 40 and Wheeler is getting 42 right now. Top salaries in 2014 were in the high 20s and low 30s for AAV.
There is going to be an explosion in payer salaries in the coming decade. $55M AAV isn't going to be as staggering then as it is today.
It's just like Harper. It was a big number when the Phils first announced it, but now, it looks pretty damn good for one of the best players in baseball.
it's not my money. LFGM.
He's had an OPS+ of 140 or higher in each of the seven seasons he's played and a WAR of 5 or higher in the last six (prorating his 2020 campaign to a full season). Only 26 players had a WAR of 5 or higher this year. So it's all-star level. But not MVP level. By comparison Manny Machado had only surpassed an OPS+ of 140 once before he got his big deal (his free agent year). Though he had a War of 5 or more 4 out of 7 seasons based on defense. With two seasons above 7. That was a case where Machado hadn't proven himself as a difference maker hitter but arguably was a difference maker as a complete player, and he hauled in a historic contract (obviously chump change compared to today's deals). And he's only put up an OPS+ of 140+ or a WAR of 5 in 2 of 6 seasons after.
Putting up a WAR of 7 puts you in the MVP voting. I would consider between a 5.5 and a 7.5 a difference maker. He's likely shown himself to be among the 7 or 8 best players from 2019-2024. Possibly better but I don't have more complete data in front of me.
Of course, he will eventually drag the team down at the end. Pretty much all of these long-term deals will. Maybe the last five years could be rough. Total speculation but the way he's built I could see him struggling with bad weight at the end of his career. That said, maybe his leg strength can still overcome that.
better in the next 7 years than he was in the past 7 based on his plate discipline and ability to learn. Like most, he's probably being paid based on these expectations rather than simply based on his past performance.
Might be regretting that now, although he does have an opt out after 2030, I believe.
in 2039
I hope he has incentives in the contract for his gold glove W's
Soto’s peak WAR in the 7’s is a little behind the 9’s of sure Hall of Famer players.
His career 36 WAR by age 26 is comparable, but slightly behind sure Hall of Famers who are around 40 by that age with the Top 3 of Mantle, Trout and Cobb in the 60s.
When Bonilla signed his deal with the Mets, he was around 13 WAR at age 26 and ended with a lifetime total around 30. So Soto’s deal already looks better than Bonilla’s.
What I can’t find is how many players topped 25 or 30 WAR by age 26 and then had short and unproductive remaining careers.
comes to mind. The injury he suffered at the end of 2019 really threw him off and, whether related or not, he's never had anything close to those 2018-2019 years again.
His age 26-27 #'s (especially his power #s) visibly exceeded anything I ever would've expected based upon his record from ages 21-25.
Bryce Harper (948.0)
Frank Robinson (928.7) *
Ken Griffey Jr. (925.1) *
Mike Trout (914.7)
Andruw Jones (905.4)
Eddie Mathews (902.9) *
Miguel Cabrera (896.9)
Mickey Mantle (888.5) *
Orlando Cepeda (887.6) *
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (877.0)
Solid list.
I should have linked it. Included this time.
Every player with enough games has a list of guys on their bbref page whose cumulative stats are the most similar statistically at each age in their career. They start with 1000 (the max possible) and then count down from there based on difference in counting stats like ABs, HRs, BBs, etc. So by this measure, Harper's stats are the most similar of any player ever at age 25 to Soto. There's nothing remotely perfect about it, just makes for conversation. I don't think they account for fielding.
If you're a supreme talent like Soto there aren't going to be too many guys that match up with you with similarity scores in the 900s. For run-of-the-mill players with 1000s of comparable players in baseball history to choose from, you'll see more guys matched up closer to 1000.
Just to be clear, it’s not an indicator of superiority, but rather of similarity to another player. For example, some guy out there (Felix Martinez) has a similarity score of 970 relative to Buddy Biancalana. That basically means his hitting stats suck in a very similar way to Biancalana’s.
For Soto, we know he’s no Buddy Biancalana, as indicated by the list I shared of the 10 guys (all HOF or on their way) with highest similarity scores relative to Soto through age 25.
Some explaining helps if you're seeing it the first time.
Not sure if that is true
And an escalator if he doesn't opt out after 5 years
But thankfully not the Dodgers.
He can’t even defend. The guy had an OAA of -5 playing in the right field sandbox at Yankee stadium. He isn’t a 10 war player like Trout in his prime.
I could understand it more if it was the last piece the Mets needed to win a title, but they are still mikes behind the Dodgers.
I do applaud Cohen for doing everything he can to win.