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On the other hand, playing in the ACC would have by tf86
Hurt their record. I think the Selection Committee would take that into consideration, although I can't say for sure. Note further that in my scenario I assumed a loss to Hopkins, although that's not guaranteed by any measure. 11-4, and undefeated in an OOC schedule that includes at least two teams (Loyola and Hopkins) who are likely to make the tourney probably would be good enough, even if they miss the ACC tourney.
I haven't seen UNC play yet this year, but you may be right about UVa beating them. On the other hand, it's sometimes difficult to steal a win on the road.