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Isn't Hiestand doing the same thing? by Queensman
Nagy has never been a head coach at any level before and 10 years ago, he was an assistant coach at small high school in PA. Hell, he's only been a real coach in the NFL for 5-6 years. You could argue that Hiestand's job at ND is more stable than Kelly's. But the NFL money is hard to turn away.
Your second point is right on. He'd likely take a major pay cut to come to ND, have to add recruiting to his profile and have to deal with a different maturity level of player (and coach for that matter). Plus, he may get a promotion with the Chiefs with Nagy leaving. The flip side is the working hours in college are probably less than the NFL. Also, Reid's Marty Schottenheimer impersonation may grow thin in KC as well.
Overall, Heck is a longshot at best IMO.