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You have to take reward into account as well. by SUJB9

Like I said, the difference between 1st and 3rd rounder is a significant amount of money. You have 1 year risk of injury there. Looking forward to your second contract, you have multiple years of potential for injury in addition to the potential that your skills will not translate as well to the NFL (where, if you're debating a jump as a 3rd rounder you, in theory, are making good progress at the college level). So in the first scenario, you're basically trading one year of risk/zero earnings versus trading multiple years of injury risk + translation to NFL risk for one year of your end-of-career contract money. It's certainly a difficult decision, but I still think the ability to jump from round 3 to round 1 money is a better investment than the investment of jumping in hopes of getting one extra end-of-career contract year. I think there are way more variables in the second scenario that you can't control/predict.