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You need to be NC caliber before you can claim to be robbed. by rockmcd

For example, the 1993 ND team actually played a really weak schedule outside of the FSU game, which itself had the benefit of being at home. But we don't need to see a SOS ranking to know that the '93 team was championship caliber.

If they only have a 50% chance against those 4 other non-title contenders that you listed, then it sounds like ND isn't a legit title contender either. The difference between ND and Bama/OSU isn't the schedule strength, it's the fact that those aren't 50% chance games for them. They're more like 80% games.