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Random observation on 538's playoff predictor. by RallyingSon
538 gives Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State better than a 99% chance of going to the playoff if they win out.
They give NC State a 98% chance.
But Notre Dame only a 91% chance.
They must have some weird assumption about conference membership built into their model.
Edit. Looking at their methodology, it's probably that ND is being penalized (inadvertently or not) in this scenario for not having a conference championship. I think that's a flaw in the model, at least in the case of ND being undefeated. In the real world that would probably only factor into the committee's thinking if they were deciding between a one-loss ND and some other one-loss team.