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I think that's the most likely outcome by tf86
I won't go so far as to say that we have no chance at the CFP this year at 11-1, but it would take an extremely chaotic season (think 2007, and I'm not referring to ND that year) for that to happen.
At this point, I think we win out, which puts us in line for either an Orange Bowl or Cotton Bowl bid, depending on other factors. I think we'd be comfortable favorites in either situation, although we're likely to get a less-than-elite opponent.