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I'd say 6 on his first year with growth by 47Bolcar
He gets ND and tireless recruiter. I don't think there will be head scratching losses, but, at the same time, he will be much more competitive against Ohio St and Clemson than Kelly was.
He'll learn a few things that will advance him to a 7 going on 8 the following year.
After that? Let's see who he gets in that 2023 and 2024 class and what he has to work with.
Also, by 2024, which assistants will still be there and which won't.
OT:He's in Tampa Monday speaking to the ND Club in the same downtown building where I work. I only have an elevator ride up 28 floors.