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I don’t think so. by mocopdx
For starters, who are we considering to be top tier right now? Saban is clearly #1(in history, not just now). Meyer is out of the game now but he would be #2. Then Dabo and Kirby. After that? It’s a lot more unclear.
So if the idea is that there are only 4 elite coaches right now, then 50% of them were first time HCs. If we expand it to the top 20 or so, it’s about 40% or so.
I don’t think it’s a ridiculous premise to say “first time head coaches have about the same rate of success as ones who have been head coaches previously”.