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Post being replied to

What's a difference maker? by tdiddy07

He's had an OPS+ of 140 or higher in each of the seven seasons he's played and a WAR of 5 or higher in the last six (prorating his 2020 campaign to a full season). Only 26 players had a WAR of 5 or higher this year. So it's all-star level. But not MVP level. By comparison Manny Machado had only surpassed an OPS+ of 140 once before he got his big deal (his free agent year). Though he had a War of 5 or more 4 out of 7 seasons based on defense. With two seasons above 7. That was a case where Machado hadn't proven himself as a difference maker hitter but arguably was a difference maker as a complete player, and he hauled in a historic contract (obviously chump change compared to today's deals). And he's only put up an OPS+ of 140+ or a WAR of 5 in 2 of 6 seasons after.

Putting up a WAR of 7 puts you in the MVP voting. I would consider between a 5.5 and a 7.5 a difference maker. He's likely shown himself to be among the 7 or 8 best players from 2019-2024. Possibly better but I don't have more complete data in front of me.

Of course, he will eventually drag the team down at the end. Pretty much all of these long-term deals will. Maybe the last five years could be rough. Total speculation but the way he's built I could see him struggling with bad weight at the end of his career. That said, maybe his leg strength can still overcome that.

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