You are not using the SSA table correctly at all
by OrangeJubilee (2024-01-29 11:08:19)

In reply to: Ahem. You keep saying this but you are incorrect  posted by airborneirish

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You don't say he's 80, and 80 year old has a life expectancy of 88 (hint that is an average) and then take 4.5/8. If anything you'd have to say it is 50/50 he makes it to 88, and if he doesn't make it to 88 then take 50% times your 4.5/8. But even that isn't right things are linear etc.

But they literally give you numbers to calculate this for an "average" person precisely. They start with 100,000 male lives at age 0. At age 80, there are 45,397 men left. By Age 84, there will be 33,015 men left. You simply take 33,015/45,397 = 72.7% of 80 year old men will be alive at 84 (conversely you can say 27.3% will be dead.) Perhaps not surprisingly, this is around the number we get in my first paragraph when I fix your calculation.

If you run it for 85 year old, you will get about 34.4% of 80 year old dead then. So 84.5 somewhere between 27% and 34%, say 30% chance.

Also it should be noted his father lived to almost 87, and his mother to over 92. They were born around 1916 - with life expectancies of around 55 (and I am adding a couple years to the male side due to WW2.)

I would take an even money bet Biden lives to see his 90th birthday.

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