None. He will win 15 states, if that.
by Domer84 (2024-01-30 22:34:14)

In reply to: assuming Trump is the nominee, what states that he lost  posted by jt

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I doubt that he will get 40% of the popular vote.

His only chance is if Biden is the nominee. I fully expect that, once Trump wraps up the nomination, Biden will withdraw for "health" reasons and the Dems will put up someone else at the convention. I suspect Newsome but I saw someone touting Michelle Obama. Then Trump is the ranting old man in the race.

If the Democrats could come up with a less left-wing candidate than those two (and I can't think of one offhand since Manchin left the party), it would be a slam dunk. That person would pull suburban women and independents. I suspect that a percentage of Republicans will simply refuse to hold their noses and vote for Trump a third time. Thus, he doesn't get 40% of the vote. And he probably drags all the down ballot candidates to defeat so a good day for the Democrats.



If you're betting on any of this, I'll take all the bets
by wearendhockey  (2024-01-31 15:44:16)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I'll even give you odds on all but how many states Trump wins.

Trump will win every state he won in 2020, with the possible exception of North Carolina. He's going to get the same 46-47% of the popular vote he got in 2016 and 2020. Mondale got 40% of the popular vote in 1984. The only major party candidate to receive fewer than 40% of the popular vote in the last 50 years was George H.W. Bush, and that required Ross Perot to snatch 20% of the popular vote for himself. And unless he's dead or incapacitated in some fashion, Democrats are going to be running Joe Biden. No major party is willing to painted as a party in disarray by undergoing a candidate switch at a convention.

Seriously, what has happened in the last 4 years that would lead anyone to believe Trump is going to receive significantly less of the vote now than he did before? How many other shoes need to drop? His voters are his voters barring anything but their own demise.