(Axelrod) are sounding the alarm bells about what we all can see before our eyes, but by and large the party and its allies across most of the media outlets will ignore this. Just a stutter, or falling back to things like "we all are forgetful at times", or "look at that resounding speech he just gave squinting at the teleprompter". So we'll get to choose between someone who's senile or at best impaired and a crook who's somehow an even bigger liar than Biden.

...and I agree that this is a significant problem for the Democrats. I'm pretty confident that Biden decided to run for a second term in large part (besides ego, which all POTUS candidates must have) due to his conviction that Trump would be the GOP candidate; that he could beat Trump; and that the advantage of incumbency would give him a leg up over other potential Democrats.

One problem is that, as I have noted previously, there is not anything like a 1960s-vintage Cook County Central Democratic Committee with a stranglehold over who would run for every office (yes, in Illinois in those days it ranged from governor to dogcatcher).

The DNC could only do a very modest amount to push a candidate against an incumbent who wants to run again; and they wouldn't, anyway, because they'd perceive, probably correctly, that the chaos that would ensue from having another Democrat of major standing start running against Biden would have a net expected value below zero (if I can put it in gambling terms).

Now, I do recall watching LBJ announce on March 31, 1968, 7 months before the general election, that he wouldn't run again; and HHH almost pulled it off. I tend to think that if he hadn't been murdered, RFK would have won.

I still think that Biden has a slightly better than 50% chance of beating Trump, assuming that both he and Trump would be in the same physical and mental condition as today.

My new slogan (someone else must have also thought of it):

"I can't wait for '28."

And agreed, I still think Biden has a >50% chance of winning, assuming Trump stays on the ballot.

A,complete cluster.

is that the democrats are going to try and drag him across the November finish line running a very real risk that he loses to Donald Trump and if he does, then they’ll spend the next four years blaming this on the irredeemable racism of the American electorate

It’s like psych ward Junior Soprano vs paranoid Tony Soprano.


Either way the family is going to lose and people are going to get clipped

Sixty years ago a bunch of guys in a smoky room would tell Joe he's out and that Whitmer is the nominee. But now who would force that? The person who challenges him has probably destroyed their career and if the challenge does work then the field gets flooded and they probably lose.

Sixty years ago Trump never would have sniffed the nomination for the R's. Bring back the smoke filled rooms.