I'm a big fan of Hogan, and I think it's a great sign...
by Giggity_Giggity (2024-04-16 13:54:01)

In reply to: The Maryland Senate race shows Hogan with solid  posted by Raoul

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...that a moderate Republican (a true, old school Republican) has such broad appeal in a state like Maryland (high income, high education). It should be a lightning bolt to the GOP to shed the MAGA bullshit and start attacking Democrats from the middle instead of the extreme.

Alas, it will probably remain an outlier.

A Republican has to be moderate in MD to have any chance.
by shawno3  (2024-04-17 09:48:19)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I don’t think that fact connotes anything about national Republican strategy. The redder the state, the less moderate a Republican candidate (for Senate) needs to be.

POTUS is obviously the one and only election in which a candidate has to attempt to appeal across states. And I think the seeming insanity (to you and me) of the Republican Party at the national level is driven by a fear that, without the MAGA vote, they can’t win the POTUS election.

Edit to add: One of my best friends is a long time MD (Dem) politician and is close friends with Hogan. Sings his praises. My friend and I have long lamented that moderate Rs like Hogan and Charlie Baker (here in MA) have seemingly no chance at the Republican nomination for POTUS for the reason I mentioned above.
If only the California GOP would learn that lesson. *
by Kali4niaND  (2024-04-17 13:26:59)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I hope the day returns where moderates of the “opposite”
by sprack  (2024-04-17 12:10:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

party (that is Republicans in Democratic states and vice versa) becomes as common as it used to be even as recently as 15 years ago. It will mean that maybe this ridiculous over-identification by party will have finally diminished at least somewhat.
Assuming he wins I doubt much changes.
by wpkirish  (2024-04-16 14:38:35)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

If the Republicans are in the majority it seems unlikely to be a majority of one where his defection on votes would cause an issue. I would expect the MAGA folks to continue to control the caucus. I dont see how Hogan would be able to change anything Romney has not been able to change.

I heard Adam Kinzinger on a pdcast the other day on the Bulwark podcast. I am paraphrasing Kinzinger and he was discussing the House not the Senate but basically said the crazie hold all the cards because they are the ones willing to blow everything up. Until the "normal" members have both the willingness and the power to do the same the Crazies will continue to rule the roost.

Well, if the GOP controls the Senate then a lot changes
by Raoul  (2024-04-16 15:42:07)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

I will gladly trade House control for Senate control for the next 4 years.

Will the GOP get the Senate? Who knows. But it appears Hogan running for Senate considerably increased the chances of that happening. GOP needs 2. While WV is surely one, I could see Dems winning the 7 seats they knew would be tough races (MI, PA, WI, AZ, MT, NV, OH). MD was not supposed to be a tough race. If Hogan wins, then the 7 tough races become more about the size of GOP hold on the Senate. Even 2 of the 7 would be huge. Then even a loss in FL or TX (still big longshots for Dems).

Hogan's entrance really changed things for the GOP.


If Brown is re-elected in OH, I will eat my hat *
by Freight Train  (2024-04-18 05:04:05)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Do you think it changes the direction of the party which I
by wpkirish  (2024-04-16 15:58:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

think was the original poster's idea?

I dont see how it does. If the Republicans end up with a one vote majority in the Senate, control of the House and Biden in the WH will he break with the party line and work for agreements with Biden? If Trump wins will be break with the party and keep the MAGA initiatives from being passed?



IMHO…if one made a list of the top ten
by ufl  (2024-04-17 08:35:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

factors which would change the direction of the Republican party, Trump failing to become president in 2024 is #1 and is more important than the other nine put together.
I agree with you that a Trump win makes changing the
by wpkirish  (2024-04-17 10:53:55)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

direction impossible. However, a loss still would leave lots of work to do. The admission that Biden won and acceptance of the results by the Party leadership and silencing of those who disagree is almost as important.
It certainly affects the party's influence and who is doing
by Raoul  (2024-04-16 16:13:00)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

the influencing. The House is more right wing than the Senate. Just by shifting the power and the influence from the House to the Senate you change the GOP conversation at the highest level. And then the 60 vote rule further moderates the influence of the folks who are outliers in the Senate. MTG (and the like) as a back bencher in the minority in the House is very different from being in a narrow majority. Her prominence fades greatly if House GOP in minority. And if in the majority, it is still reduced by the Senate's majority. Right now we have Peak MTG.

P.S. The Party is what the Party does with power when it has power.

I can see your point. The question that will need to be
by wpkirish  (2024-04-16 16:24:54)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

answered is the same one troubling Johnson in the house. Do enough members understand the Responsibility to govern and they go against the Maga caucus trying to blow everything up and are they willing to work with Dems to accomplish that.

I also think your idea presumes Biden is the WH because if it is Trump in the WH I think MAGA will be in full control.

Right now my base case is Biden wins
by Raoul  (2024-04-16 16:45:34)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

The House is narrowly lost to Dems (GOP gives back some NY and CA pickups) and Senate - I think 52-48 GOP.

Even if Trump wins, a split House and Senate means more or less gridlock. I am OK with that. And anything that does get done will be at the end of a gun motivating both sides (like now with Israel support or when the 2017 Trump tax cuts expire for both businesses and personal taxes at end of 2025).

Hogan adds good voice to the stew - one I don't always agree with but one that would not even exist outside of a Maryland race. We need a few more Josh Gottheimers and Larry Hogans to balance out the MTGs and Matt Gaetzs.