A factor not mentioned often
by ufl (2024-01-10 19:01:58)

In reply to: Get ready for President Haley.  posted by Manor76

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What if she were to win the nomination? How would Trump react? He'd claim it was rigged and run on a third party ticket. How would she win?

Trump's only shot of a pardon is a GOP win
by Flann  (2024-01-11 15:05:09)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

If Haley won, his gut reaction would be to sabotage Haley, but he'd be raising his risk of dying in jail.

That said, Trump is still the clear and overwhelming favorite for the nomination.
Good point *
by ufl  (2024-01-12 11:24:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

If she wins the nomination that means that the Trump hold
by wearendhockey  (2024-01-11 13:18:47)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

was broken. It won't matter if Trump bleats about another "stolen" election. The truth is 2020 wasn't stolen and the 2024 nominating process won't be either. So if she wins, it means he lost most of his support.

Having said that, he hasn't lost any of his support and will win no matter what. Not even death or prison will stop him. Well death might. I'd say his supporters would not believe he really died, but Trump would not be left to whip them up.

Biden to Haley voters. *
by TJK1998  (2024-01-11 10:21:15)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Could be somewhat offset by Trump-only voters not showing up
by sprack  (2024-01-11 12:57:16)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

That is, hardcore MAGA who only vote if Trump is on the ballot. I don’t know how big that contingent is, but it does exist.
Too many states have sore-loser laws for it to happen *
by El Kabong  (2024-01-10 20:51:13)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

It may not apply to presidential elections in most states
by SixShutouts66  (2024-01-11 13:47:31)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

The link discusses the case and cites several examples of minor party presidential candidates who were defeated in presidential primaries for another party but ran for another party in the general election. Lyndon LaRouche and John Anderson are two examples that were cited.

The link is from Ballotpedia from an article in Ballot Access News, which seems relatively neutral. Whether sore loser laws could take effect or not, Trump would be able to sabotage the chances of a GOP candidate.
Trump has never lost an election they have all been stolen
by wpkirish  (2024-01-11 09:27:58)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

from him did not matter if it was the Apprentice at the Emmy's or Ted Cruz winning Iowa in 2016.

I dont think he needs to run as a third party to cause problems. Unless he decides he needs Haley to win in order to get a pardon, I would be shocked to see him change his ways. If he goes down complaining about the RINO's stealing the election from him I think the damage could be just as significant.

The bigger issue is whether the polling on second choices is accurate. If it is then yes Haley gets a bump from Christie but the polling shows Trump getting a bigger bump from DeSantis.
I hadn’t considered that
by ufl  (2024-01-11 07:00:32)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

but he wouldn’t need to be on the ballot to do the Republican candidate in.
I don’t see Trump getting the nomination of an existing
by Manor76  (2024-01-10 19:14:33)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

third party. Especially after Haley beats him in the Republican primary.