In reply to: Two points. First, in primaries, the only polls that matter posted by CMCIrish
however have a few reasons to think Haley has a shot. First, I totally get what you are saying about views about Trump being baked in, but one of those views is Trump is inevitable, and people in later primary states almost always poll strongly in favor of the frontrunner until that image is shattered. Look at 2008 - Obama was way behind Clinton nationally, Clinton was as well known a candidate as there could be, and fwiw I personally had all sorts of people telling me it was a lost cause. Then he won Iowa - which mattered back then - and the rest is history.
Second, assuming Haley is in it to win it, I have to think she's going to open fire on Trump once it is a one-on-one race.
Third, I think there have to be enough Rs who want to beat Biden. They have to know Trump is the weaker candidate and it's not a close call.
Fourth, I am convinced Trump is going to do something bonkers that will actually hurt his support if he loses NH. He has truly become a raving lunatic.
she will go hard after him. The entire reason no one has gone hard after him is because the party loves him. Christie and Hutchinson went after him and neither of them made it to Iowa. She still needs all his suporters to compete in the general.
Obviously with him off the ballot turnout will likely drop but keep in mind there were at least 11 million people who did not vote in 2016 that watched him for four years and said I need four more years of that. The actual number is likely higher when you account for Trump - Biden or Clinton-Trump voters but at a minimum it was 11 million more votes in 2020.
And it may be the influence of the Tim Alberta book being fresh in my mind but I dont know that she gets the evangelical crowd excited in the same manner or if they walk from another RINO. That book opened jy eyes to another world out there that is crazy and committed.
She is becoming more popular amongst Republican women, and if he goes after her like the obnoxious cad, misogynist ogre he always turns into, that may cost him some support. She is also far more well-versed on the issues than he is. I'd love to see her debate him if his testicles ever dropped.
Didn't cost him much in the general. There's no cult of personality swelling behind Haley.
I think this thread is a bunch of old school Republicans wishing that this were the pre Trump party. The base is more populist, more blue collar, and more isolationist than it was even in 2016. As much as anything Haley's issue is that her base is a Minority in the party. That minority is just over represented in the social circles board members talk to.
In simplest terms, the angry white uneducated guys (and some women) aren't going to leave Trump for an Indian woman. If we pretend those folks aren't the majority of today's republican party, then the conservative intellectuals can debate how the rest of the party votes.
Going after her won't hurt him in the slightest ... have we forgotten his "locker room talk" that didn't move the needle?
If trump is eligible and in presentable health, he will be the republican nominee regardless of if it is 1-on-1 or not.
Another relatively close election and we're in decent health... I do wonder if he'd get nominated in 2028.
He'd go down in history a slightly more successful William Jennings Bryant
Is that every time Bryant ran he got 1 to 2% less of the vote.
practicing Christian (of the Catholic variety, so the many of the "Christian" nationalists would not think I am a Christian, but still...), one of the most disgraceful and, in my view, damaging things to Christianity as a whole in America has been the explicitly anti-Christian views and stances taken by these "Christian" nationalists.
There aren't all that many things I would say Jesus was 100% clear about. But he was absolutely, 100% clear when he addressed lying and how to treat your enemy and sinners. Yet these so-called Christians have embraced lying as the means to their end, and their end has largely become punishing both their enemies and those they view as sinners.
number of people who might change your view of evangelicals and politics.
the page not because I am a liberal and he takes the evangelical right to task. I think it was illiuminating to read about the schism and to see not just the mega churches but also the smaller churches we have neverr heard of that are likely the most radicalized. It did also cause me to pause and think about my poltics, my faith and the intersection of the two.
Well wrritten book by a person whose background was uniquely suited to writing it in a way that examine the issues in a way that was both respectful and honest.