Obviously none of us know for certain but my impression is
by wpkirish (2024-01-11 15:53:16)
Edited on 2024-01-11 16:30:16

In reply to: Two points. First, in primaries, the only polls that matter  posted by CMCIrish

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voter's views on Trump are baked in pretty well. I dont know that many of his voters are with him because they view him as a winner so I dont think that he will lose much support if he is not seen as the inevitable candidate. I do think where it presents an opportunity for Haley is to get the DeSantis people who view Trump as their second choice. Hard to say if they were picking Trumpa s their second choice because they prefer him or because they assumed he would be the nominee if it isnt DeSantis.

This post from the Cook report is interesting. The electorate in Iowa and SC look very similar but NH not so much in that they are more Republican, Conservative and Evangelical. This is what they have to say on her Christie bump. Full post linked below.

"Even if Christie were to embrace Haley, it wouldn’t solve her bigger challenge, which as I noted earlier is her inability to appeal to a more “traditional” Republican primary audience like the one she’ll see in South Carolina. The CNN/UNH poll, for example, finds Haley winning almost 50% of those New Hampshire voters who define themselves as independent or Democratic, but just 27% among Republicans. Among moderates, who are a much smaller share of the South Carolina and Iowa electorate, Haley is getting 55%. But among conservatives, who make up a larger share of the South Carolina electorate than the New Hampshire electorate, Haley gets just 20%, compared to Trump’s 60%. "

The other item that will be interesting to see is what she does if Trump does come to debate her. She has not gone after him in any real way up to this point but if it is one v one you sort of need to do that. How does she continue to praise his accomplishments but say he should not have a second term? How does she say he cant beat Biden without explicitly saying the 2020 election was not stolen?

I am in the middle of Liz Cheney's book and basically the problem Haley will confront is the very one the party has been kicking down the road sinc 2015 do you confront Trump for what he is or just try and ignore him and believe he will go away. While they keep losing general elections, the Trumop wing of the party has done pretty well in primaries even since 2020 so I am skeptical this time will be different.





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