Does she have a chance if she’s a strong second?
by ndsapper (2024-01-14 18:53:28)

In reply to: The Ann Seltzer Iowa Poll is out  posted by AquinasDomer

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Feels like she could pull out NH if she’s a strong second in Iowa. Then it’s on to SC which could get very interesting, especially if DeSantis is out by then.

The fact she is the only “establishment” candidate is killing her with a big part of the Republican base, which has no faith in our institutions.

I don't see how she wins South Carolina
by AquinasDomer  (2024-01-14 19:24:10)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

She's doing this well on the backs of Independents/dems. Her voters in Iowa prefer Biden to Teump in a general. And to win she either needs to win voters from Trump (unlikely. They're the most enthusiastic about their guy) or win every vote from every voter backing a different candidate, including Ramaswamy. That seems unlikely.

I think her ceiling is McCain 2000. She can win NH, but winning that way doesn't leave a road to win much else.
She’s twice won statewide majorities to be Governor.
by Cash  (2024-01-14 23:57:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

You can picture it. It might not be likely, and that’s incredible to me, but here we are.

The bigger problem is Super Tuesday and a set of states loaded with Republican voters who appear to regard this amoral narcissistic WWE character just above Jesus Christ himself.

Cash
Yes. *
by Barney68  (2024-01-15 11:22:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

If she finds a way to win South Carolina
by AquinasDomer  (2024-01-15 09:59:44)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Then she's found a recipe to win in states where people think Trump is a God king. He's above 50% and she's around 25% there despite the name recognition.

An upset there would be so unlikely that I think there's a good chance Trump just melts down and implodes after losing. I just think that's highly unlikely.