I don't see how she wins South Carolina
by AquinasDomer (2024-01-14 19:24:10)

In reply to: Does she have a chance if she’s a strong second?  posted by ndsapper

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She's doing this well on the backs of Independents/dems. Her voters in Iowa prefer Biden to Teump in a general. And to win she either needs to win voters from Trump (unlikely. They're the most enthusiastic about their guy) or win every vote from every voter backing a different candidate, including Ramaswamy. That seems unlikely.

I think her ceiling is McCain 2000. She can win NH, but winning that way doesn't leave a road to win much else.

She’s twice won statewide majorities to be Governor.
by Cash  (2024-01-14 23:57:48)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

You can picture it. It might not be likely, and that’s incredible to me, but here we are.

The bigger problem is Super Tuesday and a set of states loaded with Republican voters who appear to regard this amoral narcissistic WWE character just above Jesus Christ himself.

Cash
Yes. *
by Barney68  (2024-01-15 11:22:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

If she finds a way to win South Carolina
by AquinasDomer  (2024-01-15 09:59:44)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Cannot reply

Then she's found a recipe to win in states where people think Trump is a God king. He's above 50% and she's around 25% there despite the name recognition.

An upset there would be so unlikely that I think there's a good chance Trump just melts down and implodes after losing. I just think that's highly unlikely.