2013 NDNation Probability Poll Results

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(Notre Dame Football News | The Rock Report) – For the 7th year the NDNation Probability Poll is in and 2013 checks in at just slightly more optimistic than 2012, which was far more pessimistic than 2011.  It looks like NDNation is putting more stock in the BCS national championship beat down and the loss of Golson than it does in the undefeated regular season  and belief in Tommy Rees.

The probability concept puts a little more thought around predictions than just, is ND better than X? We ask every fan to estimate the probability of the Irish winning each game and use that to calculate expectations. Without further ado, the results:

2013 Findings

  • On average, fans again expect approximately 8.7 wins this year and think there’s a 1.7% chance of going undefeated.
  • The most optimistic boundary (highest responses garnering at least 10%) fans expect… 10 wins this season vs. 9.4 last season.
  • The pessimists are far less pessimistic than last year.  The impending doom scenario has passed for the bulk of fans and even the most negative fans at the  pessimistic boundary expect 7.4 (vs. 5.8) wins this season,  but think there’s almost zero chance of finishing the season undefeated or with one loss.

There seem to be four levels of opponents:

  • The coin tosses: Stanford
  • The slight favorites: Oklahoma, Michigan, Southern Cal
  • The solid favorites: Arizona State, Michigan State, BYU, Pittsburgh
  • The heavy favorites: Temple, Navy, Air force, Purdue

Fan disagreement:

  • Fans had the most disagreement about Air Force, Pittsburgh and BYU

Vegas Disagreement:

There are four games that are out of line with Vegas odds: Stanford, Michigan, Arizona State and Air Force, but overall almost dead even.

  • ND fans are more 9% more pessimistic about Air Force
  • ND fans are 7% more optimistic  about Arizona State
  • ND fans are 9% more optimistic about Michigan
  • ND fans are 14% more optimistic about Stanford

Here are the rolled up results:

Lower Mid Upper Range Vegas Delta
Temple 90% 94% 100% 10% 99% -5%
Navy 80% 91% 100% 20% 95% -4%
@Air Force 70% 86% 100% 30% 95% -9%
@Purdue 70% 81% 90% 20% 85% -4%
@Pittsburgh 60% 77% 90% 30% 79% -2%
BYU 60% 76% 90% 30% 80% -4%
Arizona State 60% 69% 80% 20% 62% 7%
Michigan State 60% 68% 80% 20% 66% 2%
Southern Cal 50% 62% 70% 20% 64% -2%
@Michigan 50% 59% 70% 20% 50% 9%
Oklahoma 50% 58% 70% 20% 53% 5%
@Stanford 40% 49% 60% 20% 35% 14%
Projected Wins 7.4 8.7 10.0 8.6

 

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6 thoughts on “2013 NDNation Probability Poll Results”

  2. 2013 says:

    Numbers would be through the roof with Golson in second year. Tommy is an NFL free agent at best. I really hope he does well, but boy is that a wild card. Can’t believe Tuitt gained so much weight. Don’t see him running one back vs. Navy this year. Schedules good enough, will know what they have at game 3.

  3. SubwayAlum_2012 says:

    As my college coach used to say: “it’s HARD to win a football game.” with the app state/Michigan (how sweet was that) game in ’07, and countless other upsets of the “favorite”, i feel that quote holds its water. The probability poll was fun, and i poured over every game; is Stanford a 6 or a 5? etc. With that being said, the only numbers that matter are the scores after each game, and the i will gurantee this: the Irish will have to be ready for some hard work come 8/31 against Temple. Can’t wait for the season though, GO IRISH!

  5. BeveragePavilion_69 says:

    13-0 This is the year! The spirits back, guys are flying around to the ball in practice videos!

  6. Ted Kazmar says:

    Don’t understand why everyone is so hot on Stanford. Stanford has to be the most over rated team in the country for 2013. Michigan is by far ND’s toughest opponent. If ND can beat Michigan, it is going to be a really great year.