2015 NDNation Probability Poll Results

Posted on by SEE

For the 9th year the NDNation Probability Poll is in and 2015 checks in with tepid expectations heading into Brian Kelly’s sixth season.

The probability concept puts a little more thought around predictions than just ” is ND better than X”? We ask every fan to estimate the probability of the Irish winning each game and use that to calculate expectations. Without further ado, the results:

2015 Findings

  • On average, fans expect approximately 8.3 wins this year.
  • At the most optimistic boundary (highest responses garnering at least 10%) fans expect… 10.4 wins.
  • The pessimists are less pessimistic; the pessimistic boundary expects 7.6 wins this season.

There seem to be four levels of opponents (no slight favorites this year):

  • The underdog: Southern Cal
  • The coin tosses: Georgia Tech, Clemson, Stanford
  • The solid favorites: Boston College, Navy, Pittsburgh, Texas
  • The heavy favorites: Virginia, Wake Forest, Temple, Massachusetts

Here are the rolled up results with the 5% cutoff:

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
9/26 MASSACHUSETTS 26.0% 65.8%
10/31 @ Temple 9.4% 33.7% 49.3%
11/14 WAKE FOREST 5.7% 16.6% 37.3% 35.1%
9/12 @ Virginia 6.8% 17.9% 30.1% 29.1% 10.6%
11/21 @ Boston College 9.1% 22.3% 30.9% 20.4% 10.4%
10/10 NAVY 9.7% 25.5% 27.2% 21.3% 9.0%
11/7 @ Pittsburgh 14.9% 27.8% 28.3% 13.7% 7.2%
9/5 TEXAS 14.3% 37.1% 27.8% 9.3%
9/19 GEORGIA TECH 5.6% 21.7% 31.9% 20.8% 9.1%
11/28 @ Stanford 7.0% 23.0% 25.5% 21.2% 11.3%
10/3 @ Clemson 8.1% 16.5% 33.8% 18.8% 10.4% 5.5%
10/17 USC 5.3% 10.5% 15.4% 35.4% 16.5% 7.9%

 

And here are the unvarnished results (with clear Chicago ballot box stuffing going on.)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
9/5 TEXAS 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 4% 14% 37% 28% 9% 3%
9/12 @ Virginia 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 2% 7% 18% 30% 29% 11%
9/19 GEORGIA TECH 0% 1% 2% 3% 6% 22% 32% 21% 9% 4% 1%
9/26 MASSACHUSETTS 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1% 4% 26% 66%
10/3 @ Clemson 1% 1% 3% 8% 16% 34% 19% 10% 6% 2% 1%
10/10 NAVY 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 10% 26% 27% 21% 9%
10/17 USC 1% 2% 5% 11% 15% 35% 16% 8% 4% 1% 1%
10/31 @ Temple (Lincoln Financial Field) 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 3% 9% 34% 49%
11/7 @ Pittsburgh 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 4% 15% 28% 28% 14% 7%
11/14 WAKE FOREST 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 2% 6% 17% 37% 35%
11/21 @ Boston College (Fenway Park) 0% 0% 1% 2% 2% 3% 9% 22% 31% 20% 10%
11/28 @ Stanford 0% 1% 2% 4% 7% 23% 26% 21% 11% 3% 1%

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10 thoughts on “2015 NDNation Probability Poll Results”

  4. PC says:

    If Kelly is committed to running the ball I believe this team has a great chance for sucess with Zaire leading the way. This is a 10 win team minimum. Its always hard to predict how good a teams schedule is but this one seems to be heavily loaded early. Texas always has big time talent so thats tricky week 1. Ga Tech’s style makes for a very tricky matchup week 3 and obviously a trip to Clemson is a big challenge but this team needs to score and possess the ball with this running game and if it does that it should take some heat off this defense which I think will get better as the season goes. I’ll say they split with USC and Clemson and finish off the season dominating the rest of the schedule. 11-1 and we will be holding our breath for an upset or two late to get in the playoff!

  7. irishhawk50 says:

    I would like to believe, as always, that ND goes undefeated and wins the NC, but with Zaire really untried as QB and all the coaching changes I think 9-3 is realistic. QB development is too important especially with a really front loaded schedule to be overly optimistic. If Golson was still here, even as a back-up, I would be a game or two more optimistic. I do think this is the year that Kelly has to show his coaching ability, one way or another. The team is probably as deep as it will ever be. Go Irish!

  9. Larry says:

    If ND had more quality depth on the D-line 12-0 or 11-1 would be a possibility. As it stands 10-2 looks to be the best they can do which will not get them in the playoffs.