With two lopsided victories in the books, Notre Dame faces a more significant road test on Saturday against the North Carolina State Wolfpack. The Fighting Irish have won their last 28 regular season games against ACC opponents while the Wolves are 18-2 at home over the past three seasons. Obviously, something has to give. North Carolina State opened its season last week with an unimpressive 24-14 victory at UConn. This week’s game will be broadcast nationally by ABC starting at 12:00 Noon Eastern time.

Both teams were in the market for an experienced quarterback during the offseason and found a solution within the Atlantic Coast Conference. Irish Head Coach Marcus Freeman landed graduate transfer Sam Hartman from Wake Forest while State’s Dave Doeren secured Brennan Armstrong from Virginia.

Armstrong, who threw for over 9,000 yards with the Cavaliers, reunited with two former coaches when he joined the Wolfpack. Offensive Coordinator Robert Anae held that position at Virginia in 2021 before spending last year at Syracuse. Offensive Line coach Garret Tujague also migrated to Doeren’s staff. Armstrong has not played against Notre Dame during his ACC career. He was injured in 2021 when the Irish visited Charlottesville and won 28-3. The teams played at Notre Dame in 2019 but Armstrong did not see action behind Bryce Perkins.

The Irish lost wideout Matt Salerno against Tennessee State with a leg injury. He will be sidelined indefinitely. Also, Devyn Ford is unlikely to play after suffering a concussion while returning a kickoff. Defensive lineman Gabe Rubio remains out with a knee injury. Rubio underwent arthroscopic surgery and the team hopes he will return to action by September 23. On the plus side, freshman linebacker Drayk Bowen will be available after missing last Saturday’s game while in concussion protocol.

Weather may be a factor on Saturday. Thunderstorms are forecast at roughly 50% probability all day. Fans will recall that the Irish did not fare well against the Wolfpack in 2016 under Brian Kelly when the contest was played in a relentless downpour. Coach Freeman was asked about preparations for adverse weather and responded as follows:

“We’ve had a few wet ball practices where we intentionally went out in the rain during fall camp and had to make sure we go out there and understand that no matter what the elements are, we have to go out there and perform.” He then added, “We are always in communication in terms of, hey, to play complementary football, what’s necessary? So, to answer your question, yeah, we’ll definitely have a plan but also have communication in terms of what’s best for both sides of the ball. Is it under center? Is it in the gun? How can we make sure that we have a chance to execute and a plan for the elements that could be there on Saturday.”

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE’S DEFENSE

The Wolfpack feature a base 3-3-5 defensive alignment. Ends Davin Vann and Savion Jackson flank nose tackle CJ Clark up front. Vann is a disruptive force and his battles against the Irish offensive tackles will be must-see television. Weak side linebacker Payton Wilson is a top performer at the next level. He was the leading tackler last week and is regarded as a can’t-miss NFL prospect.

Normally, a defense that plays only six men in the box would be an open invitation for Notre Dame to steamroll them on the ground. First, the Irish must block Vann and Wilson, which won’t be easy. Second, the Wolfpack execute various run blitzes through multiple gaps and do a good job of disguising them. UConn did gash them for two long touchdown runs, however, and Notre Dame has the weapons to burn the Wolfpack if Hartman can recognize pressure in time to adjust the play call.

Cornerback is another position of strength for North Carolina State. Aydin White and Shyheim Battle are two of the best in the ACC. Doeren will rely on them to handle Notre Dame’s receivers in single coverage while he attacks the Irish running game. The challenge for Jayden Thomas and friends to get open will be far more difficult than it was against Navy or Tennessee State. This game will provide a clearer picture of how reliable the Irish passing game is right now and how much improvement will be needed in the coming weeks.

Hartman was not successful against North Carolina State last season. He suffered three interceptions and was pressured repeatedly in a 30-21 loss. Several players from that highly efficient defensive unit have moved on from the Wolfpack but a solid nucleus remains. Conversely, Hartman is surrounded by a much better and deeper supporting cast at Notre Dame and is protected by a superior offensive line. He should not have to throw 48 passes as he did last year, and the Irish are certain to gain more than the paltry 17 yards rushing that the Deacons managed in defeat.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

There is a shortage of explosive playmakers on the offensive side of the ball for NC State. Armstrong has capable targets to throw to including Julian Gray, Keyon Lesane, Porter Rooks and freshman Kevin Concepcion. This group should not give the Irish secondary and sleepless nights, though. Armstrong is accurate in the short range but is inconsistent on intermediate and deep passes.

Jordan Houston is the primary running back and is a serviceable veteran. Michael Allen takes a share of the workload and is the better pass receiver of the pair. Delbert Mims is the short yardage and goal line specialist. The offensive line is perhaps the weakest unit on the team. Injuries and graduation have hurt the Wolfpack, who will struggle to move the ball on the ground against Notre Dame. The Irish should be able to pressure Armstrong on obvious passing downs but getting the 215-pound workhorse to the ground won’t be easy.

Armstrong was in essence the entire offense last week for NC State. His 155 passing yards consisted mainly of quick, short tosses. He showed his real value to the offense by rushing for 96 yards and two touchdowns. While no one will confuse Armstrong with Caleb Williams, the Irish defense must account for his running and scrambling ability.

Notre Dame will hold the Wolfpack offense in check if they tackle well. Armstrong’s strength is the ability to break tackles or escape the pocket to create first downs. Those plays always frustrate defenses. When he gets the ball to his backs and receivers, the first defender on the scene must make the tackle. To date, the Irish have failed to make those plays in space far too often. The extra yards keep them on the field longer and often result in points. If these breakdowns occur again this week, Notre Dame will have a close game on its hands.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Irish suffered breakdowns in the return game against Tennessee State. Poor blocking led to the shellacking of Ford on a kickoff return. He will be replaced by either Jadarian Price or Jeremiah Love. Also, Notre Dame’s kick coverage men allowed the TSU kick returner Dayron Johnson to run right past them for 58 yards. Given the talent the Irish have on the roster, there is no excuse for subpar special teams play.

Spenser Schrader continues to do the kicking for Notre Dame. He is perfect on extra points but did not have a chance to make his first field goal of the season last week. It would be nice to get that out of the way. Punter Bryce McFerson finally made an appearance last week. His first punt was too long and his second effort was too short. That was probably attributable to the rust from lack of opportunities.

The Wolfpack specialists performed well in last week’s opener. Punter Caden Noonkester averaged 45 yards on three attempts, while kicker Brayden Narveson missed a 50-yard field goal try but converted from 44 yards. Julian Gray is a capable return man who can do damage if given room to maneuver.

SUMMARY

North Carolina State must play excellent defense throughout the afternoon to stay in this game until the fourth quarter. The Pack could create a few havoc plays early based on their creative schemes and the athletic ability of their playmakers. Notre Dame will counterpunch by getting the ball to its running backs in space and attacking the linebackers other than Wilson. The Wolfpack safeties are collectively not the world’s best tacklers, either. The Irish backs should be able to find a lane and cut up the middle on this group. Trying to go wide may be more difficult.

Defensively, Notre Dame must be disciplined in its pass rush and keep Armstrong from finding openings to scramble upfield. Better performances are also needed from linebackers JD Bertrand and Marist Liufau. Both essentially disappeared last week after a strong opening game in Ireland. The NC State offense is not explosive and is unlikely to generate big chunk plays as long as the Irish don’t suffer catastrophic assignment breakdowns.

Coach Doeren said his team is excited about the prospect of hosting a top ten team and urged the fan base to support this home opener. “We need you to be a part of this one, big-time”, he said before adding, “We’re excited for you to see the new jumbotron and hear the new sound system.”

Here are a few questions that we hope will be answered this week:

• Can the Irish offensive tackles neutralize ends Vann and Jackson?
• Will Hartman recognize and counter NC State’s multiple defensive looks?
• Can the Irish ground game allow Hartman to throw fewer than 25 passes?
• Will Marty Biagi’s return and coverage teams rebound from last week?
• Can the Irish defense limit Armstrong’s rushing yardage to <50?
• Which team will win the turnover battle?
• Can Notre Dame’s wide receivers get open against the Wolfpack corners?
• Will Freeman insist on throwing the ball from the shotgun if there is a monsoon?

PREDICTION

Notre Dame’s defense holds a significant advantage over the pedestrian Wolfpack offense. That edge will evaporate if the Irish fail to contain Armstrong and continue to miss tackles on ball carriers in space. North Carolina State has a puncher’s chance if it can stay within one score through three quarters of play. The Pack doesn’t have the weapons to come back from a larger deficit, though. Hartman and the offense can grind down the talented NC State defense if Armstrong can’t move the chains and limit Notre Dame’s possessions. Even if the weather serves to hold down the scoring, the Irish should take control of the game early in the second half and ride to victory without any late drama.

NOTRE DAME 28  NORTH CAROLINA STATE 17

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