The early season romps are over for a pair of top ten heavyweights as Notre Dame (4-0) hosts the Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) on Saturday night. Each team rolled over inferior opponents and traveled to face a quasi-competitive conference member to work out a few kinks. Both Indiana and North Carolina State pestered the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish, respectively, in the early going before being dispatched.  This week’s contest features two powerful offenses with several talented playmakers who will ultimately play on Sundays. The game will be nationally televised by NBC starting at 7:30 pm Eastern time.

Coach Ryan Day boasts a 48-6 record since taking over the helm at OSU in 2019. The Buckeyes beat Notre Dame in last season’s opener in Columbus by 21-10 but the Irish offense has since undergone a complete makeover. Each team is led by a different quarterback. Sam Hartman joined Notre Dame after graduating from Wake Forest while Ohio State selected Kyle McCord to take the reins when CJ Stroud moved on to the NFL.

Coach Day had the following comments when asked about Notre Dame’s pro-style attack. “They want to establish the run, you can tell that. I think (Audric) Estime has done well, he’s running hard. We’ve got to be able to rise to the challenge. We’ve got to be able to run to the ball.”  

Regarding McCord and his first big game in the spotlight, he said, “I think he’s grown every week. Not that everything’s perfect, it never is. We’ve got to do a great job this week to really prepare.” When asked if McCord is ready to carry his team, Day replied, “We have to do whatever we can to win the game, whatever it looks like. We want balance but then there’s also times where you need to throw it a lot to win.”

Reporters asked Irish Coach Marcus Freeman about the matchup between McCord and the six-year veteran Hartman. “I’ll speak on our guy. He’s played in big games and big moments. His mindset, the ability to go out there and have the right mindset for him to have success. That’s what I’m most excited for is the experience he has. Sam Hartman knows this is about him going out there and going through his checklist and executing the things he needs to go through to have success. When you haven’t done that, I’m sure it’s a lot more difficult. Obviously, I feel great having a quarterback that’s had some of that big-game experience and college football experience that Sam has had.”

Defensively, the Buckeyes have a strong returning group and figure to be better than last season. The Irish also boast several quality veterans but the talent level in Columbus is superior in several spots along the front seven. Notre Dame received some good news this week on the injury front. It appears that three starting defenders will play after sitting out last week. Tackle Gabe Rubio is back after missing three games with a knee injury, while linebacker JD Bertrand and safety DJ Brown were cleared from concussion protocol. On offense, the status of Mitchell Evans (concussion) is probable while fellow tight end Eli Raridon (knee) remains doubtful.

Ohio State reports no injuries to its starters or primary backups.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE’S DEFENSE

Ohio State bullied the interior of the Irish offensive line last season in the course of shutting down Notre Dame’s ground game. Tackle Michael Hall was constantly in the Irish backfield, either through successful stunts or simply overpowering the center and guards. This beatdown was a factor in Freeman’s drive to improve the size and physicality of the guard position during the offseason. Hall is back once more, flanked by highly regarded ends JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Ty Hamilton is the nose guard. The Buckeyes have a deep rotation that includes former Notre Dame recruit Hero Kanu.

Pass protection for Hartman is a critical element for Notre Dame to score enough points to win. The Buckeyes can bring pressure with their front four, as Tuimoloau and Hall pose a formidable inside/outside tandem. Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg is also an accomplished blitzer who has the required timing and instincts to get home. It’s also not wise to take for granted that Notre Dame’s tackles will stonewall the outside pass rushers. Tuimoloau will be a headache even for Joe Alt, while Blake Fisher suffered a few pass blocking lapses during the first month. He needs to play his best game of the season.

While the Irish will have their hands full up front, the wide receivers must get open for Hartman so he can deliver the ball quickly and without duress. This group had a difficult time creating separation from the Central Michigan secondary last week. If the problem persists against the better athletes from Columbus, it could be a frustrating and anxiety-filled night for Hartman. Notre Dame must establish a downfield passing threat because short dink and dunk throws will be smothered quickly by the fast and athletic Buckeye back seven.

Other defenders of note are weak side linebacker Steele Chambers, a fifth-year player with considerable range, cornerback Denzel Burke, and 6’4” strong safety Sonny Styles.

Execution will be critical to Notre Dame’s success. Center Zeke Correll and guards Pat Coogan and Rocco Spindler must account for stunting linemen in pass protection and Eichenberg’s well-time blitzes through the gaps. They must win a fair share of their individual battles to clear lanes for the running game. The guards must also be agile enough to reach Eichenberg and Chambers at the second level on running plays. That is a tall order, however the Irish must erase the 172-76 yards rushing deficit they suffered in last season’s loss.

OHIO STATE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

McCord’s early season stats indicate he is a 70% passer but those numbers are padded with a 77% success rate against two lower division foes. Besides Harrison and Egbuka, McCord has additional quality targets in tight end Cade Stover and senior wideout Julian Fleming. Freshman Carnell Tate, another former Irish recruiting target, is already a productive reserve.

At running back, TreVeyon Henderson gets the most carries but Miyan Williams and Chip Trayanum see regular duty in the rotation. Both Henderson and Trayanum are breakaway threats. The Buckeyes have elected to pass a bit more frequently than they have run the ball, which is a bit surprising given the poor quality of their opponents to date. This could be true because there has been turnover on the offensive line and that group is still finding its way.

The Buckeyes imported transfer left tackle Josh Simmons from San Diego State and promoted three other young players into starting roles this season. Veteran right guard Matt Jones is the only returning player with significant experience. Notre Dame’s plan must be to attack this group with waves of fresh troops to stop the run. The goal is to make Ohio State one dimensional and force third and long situations. This will create stress for McCord, who is not a particularly dangerous runner or scrambler.

Rubio’s return to action is a positive for the Irish front. They also need Jordan Botelho to return to form after essentially disappearing over the past two games, and must have production from Riley Mills, a senior tackle who has yet to realize his full potential. The best hope for a strong pass rush may come from Javontae Jean-Baptiste, the graduate transfer from Ohio State who has met or exceeded expectations since coming to South Bend. He should be highly motivated to have success against his prior team.

On the back end, Freeman and Defensive Coordinator Al Golden will work hard to disguise their coverage schemes and add wrinkles that McCord has not seen on film. Although that may help on occasion, Notre Dame still needs to cover the talented Buckeye receivers and tackle them to minimize yards after catch. The tackling competency in space has literally been a hit or miss proposition during the past four weeks and must be solid on Saturday.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame’s specialists have performed well to date, while the return teams have failed to provide any noteworthy contributions. Poor field position was an issue for the Irish in last year’s game. They must do better on Saturday.

Ohio State returns punter Jesse Mirco from a successful 2022 debut. He has averaged just under 48 yards so far in 2023. Kicker Jayden Fielding is new to the job this season but is perfect on three field goal attempts and 16 extra points. The dangerous Egbuka will return punts while Special Teams Captain Xavier Johnson brings back kickoffs.

The Buckeyes cover kickoffs very well, although punt returns may be an area the Irish can exploit. Mirco often outkicks the coverage but the problem is forcing Ohio State to punt in the first place. Both coaches stock these units with excellent athletes, and it is unlikely that either team will gain a significant advantage. Still, the game can turn on a single long return, a blocked kick, a fumble, or a costly penalty.

SUMMARY

There are several similarities between these teams as well as areas where one side can gain an advantage. Each has a stable of productive running backs and big play receivers, including talented tight ends. The Notre Dame offensive line and the Ohio State defensive front are dominant units but only one of them can prevail. The Buckeye offensive front and the Irish defensive line have held their own to date but there are lingering questions and concerns for both units that can only be answered at this level of competition. Among the back seven on defense, each team starts multiple fifth-year linebackers and a truly outstanding cornerback.

One conclusion I draw from these strengths and weaknesses is Notre Dame must run the ball well in order to be successful. If the Buckeye defense dominates the line of scrimmage as it did last year and again holds the Irish to fewer than 100 yards rushing, the visitors will win. In the latter case the Irish will be forced to pass much more than is prudent and mistakes become inevitable. Conversely, Notre Dame must put pressure on McCord to create uncertainty, hurried throws and failed third down opportunities.

My second stipulation is the Irish must enter the fourth quarter with the lead or with the score tied. If they can keep the crowd fully engaged into the latter stages of the evening, the energy and adrenaline the environment provides could lift them over the top. If Notre Dame falls behind early, doubt may creep into the consciousness of both fans and players.  Freeman understands this and is making progress to restore the expectation of winning big games after three decades of frustration. A victory over Ohio State would signify a breakthrough that convinces players, fans, recruits and future opponents that he and the Irish can do it.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Which team will establish and maintain a productive rushing attack?
• Will Notre Dame find ways to distress McCord both in the pocket and downfield?
• Which coaching staff will seize early momentum with innovation and surprise?
• Will Notre Dame’s receivers get open or will Hartman have to run for his life?
• Can the Irish avoid costly penalties that have plagued them in recent weeks?
• Which team will have fewer turnovers?
• Can the aggressive Irish secondary keep the elite  Buckeye receivers in check?
• Which team will win the battle of field position?
• Will Notre Dame’s green jerseys and the green-out in the stands be worth a few points?

PREDICTION

Make no mistake that despite the explosive playmakers on both teams, this will be a game of stamina and physicality. The Irish linemen held their own for three quarters last year before the Buckeyes wore them down. Freeman’s emphasis since that night both in developing the current players and recruiting future stars has been geared toward erasing that disparity. This game will reveal how far he has come and what still needs to be done.

Ohio State is as talented as advertised but certainly not invincible. Blue collar Michigan teams have mopped the floor with them for two years running, and Notre Dame has been developing a similar mindset in the trenches. If that battle is more evenly fought and the outcome depends on the play of the quarterbacks, the chances for an Irish victory definitely improve.

The Indiana-OSU game should also give Notre Dame fans hope. McCord completed just 60% of his passes against the Hoosiers, most of which were short throws. He suffered one interception and had no touchdowns. The longest reception by both Harrison and Egbuka was a mere nine yards. The Buckeyes also had no running plays of 20 yards or more. Unfortunately, Indiana has very few offensive weapons and did not adequately test Ohio State’s defense. They have switched quarterbacks since that game and are marginally better but they will almost certainly finish in the lower echelon of the Big-10. Obviously, Notre Dame brings much more offensive firepower to the table.

Still, the Irish must minimize their mistakes to win. No cheap touchdowns allowed, no killer penalties to keep Buckeye drives alive or derail their own advances, and an offensive line that handles both the physical and mental demands placed on them. This sounds like a lot to ask but Notre Dame held the Buckeye offensive juggernaut to 21 points last year in Columbus despite a weak offensive performance. If the Irish match that feat on Saturday they will win.

NOTRE DAME 23  OHIO STATE 20