Notre Dame kicks off its 2018 football season with a prime time battle against the visiting Michigan Wolverines. The Irish return quarterback Brandon Wimbush among the core of offensive veterans, and welcome back ten starters from a talented defense. The Wolverines are equally well-stocked on defense, and Coach Jim Harbaugh has imported transfer quarterback Shea Patterson from Mississippi to jump start an offense that has underperformed in his first three seasons at the helm. The game will be nationally televised on NBC beginning at 7:30 pm ET.

Coach Brian Kelly, who begins his ninth season in South Bend, has devoted a significant amount of practice time during the offseason to the development of Wimbush and the passing game. Wimbush struggled last season with accuracy problems and ultimately lost confidence during the last few games. Backup Ian Book came on in relief several times with mixed results, but Wimbush is more physically gifted and enters this contest as the clear starter.

The Irish lost two top offensive linemen to the NFL in Mike McGlinchey and Quenton Nelson, but a group of veterans led by center Sam Mustipher and guard Alex Bars will anchor a solid group. Skilled weapons such as running back Josh Adams, wideout Equanimeous St. Brown and tight end Durham Smythe will be tough to replace following their graduation, but Kelly has talented reserves and promising freshmen available to take over.

All-American candidate Tevon Coney anchors the defense at middle linebacker. He will play behind a deep and talented forward wall featuring tackle Jerry Tillery and ends Khalid Kareem and Daelin Hayes. The back end boasts excellent cornerbacks in Julian Love and Troy Pride, but nickel back Shaun Crawford was lost for the season earlier this week with an ACL injury. Alohi Gilman adds toughness and skill to the safety position, while highly-touted freshman Houston Griffith should make his mark this season. The Irish also have a pair of outstanding specialists in kicker Justin Yoon and punter Tyler Newsome. Both are seniors.

The only other injuries of note are on Michigan’s side of the ledger. Top receiver Tarik Black will miss several games with a broken foot, while star defensive end Rashan Gary is rumored to be nursing a sore shoulder.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. MICHIGAN’S DEFENSE

Michigan’s defense is strong up front and fast in the back seven. Coordinator Don Brown is known for aggressive blitzing and creating negative plays. Key players are Gary and Chase Winovich at the ends, middle linebacker Devin Bush (100 tackles in 2017) and cornerback Lavert Hill. Their plan will be to shut down the Irish ground game and test Wimbush with pressure and multiple coverage looks on third and long. The game will be a true test regarding how well Wimbush has progressed from last season, since all the practice time in the world does not equate to live action against a talented opponent.
The Irish line will have to play solidly from the start, as there is no preseason or cupcake games to develop chemistry. Tommy Kraemer, Liam Eichenberg and Robert Hainsey all have experience and will join Mustipher and Bars. Sophomore Josh Lugg has emerged as the primary alternate.

Running back has been a concern from a depth standpoint. Adams is now in the NFL and Dion MacIntosh transferred out, leaving Tony Jones, Jr. as the starter. The availability of Dexter Williams remains under the cloud of a rumored four game suspension, while Kelly has moved reserve quarterback Avery Davis to the position and elevated sophomore Jafar Armstrong to a more prominent role. Given the changes up front and the uncertainty in the backfield, this Notre Dame team won’t closely resemble the group that averaged 300 yards rushing during most of 2017. Jones will have to grind out some quality gains, however, if the Irish hope to keep the Wolverine defense from swarming all over Wimbush.

There are talented weapons in the passing game for Kelly to employ. Tall receivers Miles Boykin and Chase Claypool appear ready for breakout seasons and tight end Alize Mack is finally putting in the work that should allow him to showcase his immense physical ability. Freshmen speedsters Kevin Austin and Braden Lenzy could become important contributors down the line, but may not get many snaps in an opening game of this magnitude. The aerial battle will be fierce as Michigan returns every player from the country’s top-ranked secondary.

MICHIGAN’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Patterson is expected to be a savior of sorts for an anemic passing game. Last year’s completion rate was barely above 50% and the Wolverines recorded only nine touchdowns through the air. The receiving corps is weakened without Black, leaving sophomore Donovan Peoples-Jones and 6’4” Nico Jones (four receptions in 2017) as the primary options. True freshman Ronnie Bell may be forced to play in the slot. Tight ends Zach Gentry, a rising star at 6’8”, and Sean McKeon caught more passes between them last year than any other pair of Michigan receivers.

The offensive line is another area where improvement is both expected and needed after a mediocre campaign last year. The tackle spots have been in flux, but Jon Runyan Jr. and Juwann Bushell-Beatty will likely start. They are joined by left guard Ben Bredeson, center Cesar Ruiz, and right guard Michael Onwenu. Veteran running backs Karan Higdon and Chris Evans return to deliver a solid one-two punch.

Michigan must establish its ground game to be successful. Patterson is also a threat to run the ball, but he is not nearly as dangerous as Wimbush in this area. Look for passes to the tight ends on third down with the occasional deep shot to Peoples-Jones for good measure. This strategy may be enough to carry the Wolverines in a low-scoring contest if the running game can take pressure off Patterson.

The Irish defense has no glaring weaknesses with plenty of depth up front and in the secondary. Coney and Drue Tranquill are indispensable at linebacker, although Tranquill is shifting from the rover spot to the strong side. Gilman is being counted upon to stabilize the safety position alongside Nick Coleman and possibly Griffith. The challenge is to replace Crawford on short notice. Coleman could be moved over from safety to allow Griffith to backfill, or a freshman such as D.J. Brown or Tariq Bracy could cover the slot. Either way, a freshman starter in the secondary may be necessary.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame’s Yoon and Newsome are as strong a pair of specialists as any in the country. Chris Finke continues as the primary return man, while Armstrong and Michael Young will help out on kickoffs. Last year’s coverage units performed well, but the return teams were statistically not very productive.

Michigan is set at kicker with sophomore Quinn Nordin, who displayed a strong, accurate leg in his debut season. The punting job is somewhat unsettled in that incumbent Brad Robbins is average at best and Harbaugh is seeking greater production. Speedster Peoples-Jones is a quality punt returner, while Ambry Thomas continues to handle kickoffs.

SUMMARY

One can easily see the similarities between these squads that should dictate a hard-fought, low scoring game. The focus will be on the quarterback position, where the starter that delivers the steadiest performance affords his team a significant advantage. Both teams have concerns along the offensive line and will be under siege all day from relentless trench warfare. The Irish have an advantage at wide receiver while Michigan’s running backs are more experienced. Defensively, the Wolverines are drawing much more pregame hype, but that may work in Notre Dame’s favor.

The outcome is more likely to be determined by crucial mistakes rather than great scoring plays by either offense. Look for turnovers impacting field position and leading to precious points, because you won’t see many 40-yard runs or 60-yard passes.
Harbaugh and his staff have a distinct coaching advantage over Kelly and his young coordinators, but Kelly can narrow the gap if he has tailored his game plan to keep Wimbush settled, maximize his strengths, and run the ball effectively enough to keep the Wolverine pressure at bay. If Kelly is seen repeatedly yelling at Wimbush as he comes off the field after yet another third down miss, you will know very early how this one will turn out.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Which team will gain the most points off turnovers?

Which offensive line will be able to generate a respectable running game?

Can either Wimbush or Patterson complete 60% of their passes?

Which secondary will live up to its high expectations?

Which defense will generate significant pressure on the passer?

Will any freshmen have a measurable impact on the outcome?

Who will win the battle between the talented field goal kickers?

Which head coach will have the worst post-game press conference?

PREDICTION

Michigan won’t win if it must rely on scoring drives originating from its own territory. The question is how many turnovers Notre Dame will commit leading to dramatic shifts in field position and cheap points gifted to the visitors. It’s probably unfair to lay all of this pressure on the feet of Wimbush, but I’m afraid that’s exactly what the incurably stubborn Kelly will do. Even thousands of green jerseys won’t save the Irish on Saturday if Kelly continues to try to turn Wimbush into Dan Marino.

MICHIGAN 20 NOTRE DAME 16