Notre Dame returns to action this weekend as the Fighting Irish host the Florida State Seminoles. It has been a disastrous season for the visitors, who stand at 1-8. Roster attrition from last year’s 13-1 squad, injuries, and deficient performance by both players and coaches have taken a heavy toll. Meanwhile, the Irish have continued to improve and are riding a six-game winning steak as they pursue a berth in the college football playoff. NBC’s national television coverage for Saturday’s contest will begin at 7:30 PM Eastern time.

Florida State Coach Mike Norvell is in his fifth season, having succeeded Jimbo Fisher. Norvell had delivered steady progress from a 3-6 record in 2020, culminating in a 13-1 mark last year. This season, however, the Noles have fallen off a cliff. When asked to explain yet another loss last week to North Carolina, Norvell responded with a few nuggets of candor in a word salad of coach speak.

“That was our eighth different starting offensive line, lineup that we’ve had in nine games”, he began. “We’ve had two more starters that were out, which obviously had an effect, but ultimately it’s opportunities for other guys, young guys to get their chance to show and to be able to go out there and compete, put their best on display, and we just have not been consistent enough across the board on really either side of the ball for what is expected and what we need to be.”

The extra week of rest has given Notre Dame time to heal its walking wounded. This group includes Christian Gray, Jeremiah Love, Mitchell Evans, and Billy Schrauth. All are expected to start. Kicker Mitch Jeter’s leg injury has improved but he is still not likely to compete this week. Defensive lineman Jason Onye remains out with a personal matter and will probably not return this season.

Florida State previously lost starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, tailbacks Roydell Williams and Jaylin Lewis, and several offensive linemen for various stretches of time. This week, linebacker Justin Cryer is out and center Maurice Smith is listed as questionable. Another tailback, Kam Davis, is also out.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. FLORIDA STATE’S DEFENSE

The Noles run a 4-2-5 defensive alignment that is anchored by a deep, big, and talented front four. Ends Patrick Payton and Marvin Jones have NFL-level talent while tackle Darrell Jackson may be the team’s best overall player. The fourth member of the unit, tackle Joshua Farmer, leads the team in tackles for loss.

This group has inexplicably failed to dominate, though. FSU’s anemic offense is certainly a contributing factor, if only indirectly. Coaches and pundits have embraced the concept of “complementary football” this year while FSU is doing just the opposite. The Noles trail in terms of time of possession margin by 34-26 minutes per game.

Cam Riley and Blake Nichelson are a solid pair of linebackers. Omar Graham is also in the mix. Riley, who spent four seasons at Auburn, has taken advantage of his opportunity in Tallahassee and has become a disruptive player.

Apart from free safety Shyheim Brown, the secondary has struggled to maintain consistency both in coverage and tackling ability. It is largely a collection of young players in their first starting roles and outside transfers. FSU’s opponents have succeeded on 46% of third down tries, which is indicative of a losing team.

The Irish attack should lean toward a ball-control strategy as the forecast calls for rainy and breezy conditions throughout the evening. The hosts have the skillset to keep the Noles’ front four off balance and unable to tee off on third and long. Riley Leonard’s short passing game and the ground attack led by Love can make it another long night for the visitors.

FLORIDA STATE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Quarterback Brock Glenn took the reins after Uiagalelei suffered a broken hand on September 28 and underwent season-ending surgery. Glenn has completed only 46% of his passes and has been further victimized by a porous offensive line. He has a pair of capable receivers in Malik Benson and the speedy Ja’Khi Douglas. They have delivered big plays at times when Glenn has adequate protection but those opportunities have been all too rare.

Florida State’s running game has been even more problematic. Injuries to backs and linemen have been crippling. The only healthy and reliable tailback this season has been Lawrance Toafili. He has earned only 303 yards in nine games but is the team’s leading ground gainer by a wide margin. If Smith cannot answer the bell this week at center, the porous interior of the line will degrade even further.

Pass protection has also been an issue, as evidenced by the 30 sacks surrendered, 36 quarterback hits, and countless hurries and scrambles. Tackles Darius Washington and Jeremiah Byers are experienced sixth year players but neither has the quickness to protect in space. Al Golden’s abundance of rush and blitz packages should make life miserable for Glenn and the Seminole attack.

The vast majority of Glenn’s passes will be in the short zones or checkdowns to Toafili. Notre Dame’s secondary can plan accordingly and try to take away any easy completions. The Irish, if properly motivated, should not allow FSU to exceed its horrendous 25% third down conversion rate. I expect Howard Cross and Rylie Mills to take up residence in Florida State’s backfield.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Seminole kicker Ryan Fitzgerald has converted ten of eleven three point tries, including five from beyond 50 yards. His lone failed attempt from 48 yards barely got off the ground and struck a blocker in the back. The holder took a high snap and did not clear his hand from the ball in time. As one might expect, the play made quite a few blooper reels.

Florida State has an urgent need for a great punter this season, and they have one in Alex Mastromanno. The senior averages an impressive 49 yards per boot and has allowed minimal return yardage.

The team has enjoyed other successes in the kicking game. Freshman running back Sam Singleton has a 95-yard kickoff return to his credit. The team has also blocked four field goal attempts by opponents this season.

With Jeter not expected to play, Notre Dame will once again turn to Zac Yoakam for place kicking duties. Punter James Rendell may have to contend with wind and rain on Saturday, so there may be some drama on fourth down.

SUMMARY

Florida State’s struggles on offense are understandable given the injuries and poor play of their quarterbacks. On the other hand, the Noles’ defense should be better than the numbers indicate. A unit with such impressive talent up front should not be surrendering 191 yards rushing per game and 4.6 yards per attempt. They have forced only three turnovers all season while committing 15. This ratio is an indictment of both sides of the ball.

A key for Notre Dame is to run the ball effectively and break the will of this defense. The bye week and home environment should allow the Irish to play with speed and physicality. FSU may exhibit fatigue after a long road trip following five consecutive losses. They have been bulldozed for a combined 520 rush yards in their two most recent outings.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Will the Irish exhibit a high energy level after a two-week break?
• Can Notre Dame extend the turnover misery that has plagued FSU this season?
• Will Leonard continue his improvement as a passer?
• Can the Irish offensive line handle the talented Seminole front four?
• Will FSU be able to block an Irish field goal attempt?
• Can the Irish reach the 200-yard mark on the ground?
• Will Notre Dame’s defense dominate the Noles on third down?
• Can the Irish score touchdowns once they enter the red zone?

PREDICTION

Florida State has enough quality athletes to make this matchup competitive for a while. A night game with a national audience should bring out the best in most players. The inescapable problem faced by the Seminoles is a battered, dysfunctional offense that is not going to undergo a transformation in one short week. I expect their defense to make some noise but the Irish will wear them down as the evening turns wetter and colder. The only danger I see for the hosts is a lack of intensity that arises from underestimating one’s opponent. We have already seen that movie once this season and I do not expect Marcus Freeman to allow it to happen again on Saturday.

NOTRE DAME 38  FLORIDA STATE 13

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