Notre Dame (10-1) and USC (6-5) continue their rivalry in Los Angeles on Saturday afternoon in the regular season finale for both teams. The Fighting Irish lead the series, which began in 1926, by 49-37-5. Marcus Freeman’s squad has won nine in a row and hopes to clinch a home game in the upcoming college football playoffs. Conversely, the Trojans have underachieved in 2024 but a victory this week would be most satisfying. The game will be nationally televised on CBS beginning at 3:30 PM Eastern time.

Coach Lincoln Riley is in his third season at USC with an overall record of 25-13. Riley engineered a quarterback change a few weeks ago by demoting junior Miller Moss and elevating sophomore Jayden Maiava. Moss had started the first nine games while Maiava has led Troy to recent wins over Nebraska and UCLA.

Notre Dame has been rolling over its opponents of late. Its core strength is a powerful defense that is one of the best in the country. Recently, the offense has made strides. Quarterback Riley Leonard has become a more polished passer and the line is rounding into shape. They have won the last four by a combined score of 187-45.

Each team has reported a few key injuries. Notre Dame expects defensive tackle Howard Cross to play while linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa is out. The Trojans pass rusher Solomon Tuliaupupu is listed as questionable. Previously, defensive end Anthony Lucas and linebacker Raesjon Davis were lost for the season.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. USC’S DEFENSE

USC’s defensive scheme is a 4-2-5 alignment including a rebuilt front four after significant turnover from 2023. There are no dominant pass rushers of note, although redshirt freshman end Sam Greene has flashed recently after Lucas went down. True freshman Kameryn Fountain has also earned a spot in the rotation.

Middle linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold leads the team in tackles and sacks. He played at Oregon State before joining USC last December. Macarenas-Arnold led the Beavers in tackles in 2023 but opted out of the Sun Bowl against Notre Dame. Mason Cobb, another transfer now in his second season at Troy, starts on the weak side.  He played in the middle last season.

The Trojan secondary is much improved from last year as four transfers are starting now. The lone holdover, cornerback Jaylin Smith, is their best cover man. Free safety Kamari Ramsey, who came across town from UCLA, is a physical presence and playmaker. USC has held opponents to a 32% conversion rate on third down, which is just behind Notre Dame’s 30%. Their tackling has improved and they are more aggressive this season.

USC’s overall defensive statistics are above average although not quite at the lofty levels of the Irish. Offensively, Notre Dame must run the ball against the Trojan front and be sure to put a body on Mascarenas-Arnold.

USC’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Riley gave Maiava his opportunity to start mainly because Moss often made choices that resulted in interceptions. Maiava has been accurate thus far and is a better threat to use his legs. He also throws extremely well on the run and looks downfield when forced to scramble.

USC uses lots of four wide sets with a talented array of receivers. Zacharia Branch, Makai Lemon, Kyren Hudson, and Ja’Kobi Layne are the primary targets with Duce Robinson and Kyle Ford in reserve. Tight end Lake McCree is a key piece while tailback Woody Marks catches a ton of short passes.

Marks transferred in from Mississippi State. He has averaged 100 yards rushing per game and leads the Trojans with 47 receptions. He is neither particularly big nor fast but is durable and productive. Quinten Joyner is a capable backup who allows Marks to catch a breather. USC’s balance on offense and a capable defense should have yielded more than six wins to date. Turnovers and penalties have plagued them.

Up front, Troy’s offensive line is anchored by center Johah Manheim, who played left tackle last season. This unit has been healthy and intact for every game, and it is beginning to jell. Notre Dame’s coaching staff must focus on stopping the run and showing the relatively young Maiava multiple defensive looks he has not seen before. The Irish will be hard pressed to contain USCs receivers with man coverage if Maiava has time to throw. Since he can extend plays with scrambles, that task is even more difficult.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame’s Mitch Jeter remains a question mark for any field goal attempts from middle to long range. Punter James Rendell must guard against giving Branch an opportunity to return a punt with daylight ahead of him. Irish return men Jayden Harrison on kickoffs and Max Hurleman on punts have been solid. Branch and Lemon have been better for the Trojans.

Michael Lantz had zero field goals in a month for USC before hitting four short ones against UCLA. Lantz has an earlier 54-yarder to his credit but his accuracy drops significantly outside 40 yards. Punter Eddie Czaplicki is a true weapon for the Trojans. He averages over 48 yards and does not allow many returns.

SUMMARY

USC is a better team on paper than they have been on the field. That dynamic has begun to change and Notre Dame may see the best version of them. Both teams will bring a healthy level of confidence to this game. It is vital for the visiting Irish to start well and play from ahead on the scoreboard.

Quarterbacks will be in the spotlight. Leonard has more experience but he also manages to throw passes into double or triple coverages. Maiava has taken care of the ball but played against relatively soft defenses.

A strong running game is the best friend of any field general. The team that can sustain success in this area will have a significant advantage.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Will Notre Dame get off to a strong start?
• Can the Irish secondary cover the dynamic Trojan receivers?
• Which team will have the fewest penalties and turnovers?
• Will these strong, fast defenses continue to get stops on third down?
• Which team will be able to run the ball most effectively?
• Will the Irish pass rush be able to rattle Maiava?
• Which quarterback will prove to be the most accurate passer?
• Will the Irish special teams have a positive or negative impact?

PREDICTION

Los Angeles Coliseum has often been a House of Horrors for highly ranked and favored Notre Dame teams.  The Trojans certainly have the talent to win this game if they play to their potential. That has been proven time and again in this historic rivalry. It is irrelevant that USC has failed to sustain a high level of efficiency in most contests this season. Unfortunately for the Irish, Troy’s previous struggles have no bearing on Saturday’s game.

Turnovers and untimely penalties always play a significant role in determining the winner.  Both defenses bring pressure, so the quarterback that makes good decisions in those circumstances will prevail. Special teams are likely to be a factor as well. All of these elements foreshadow a close game, and sometimes the better team does not always win.  In fact, the Trojans have more experience in tight contests this year, despite decidedly mixed results. To predict an outcome, I will assume both teams play well and turnovers balance out. In that scenario, the Irish have exhibited superior focus and consistency all season. These traits will give them the edge to come through with the game on the line.

NOTRE DAME 27  USC 20 

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