Notre Dame and Ohio State meet in Atlanta on Monday evening to battle for the College Football National Championship. The Fighting Irish and Buckeyes each survived a gauntlet of Big-10 and SEC powerhouses to earn a berth in this playoff final. Both teams have been on a tear since losing regular season games despite being heavy favorites. ESPN will provide national television coverage starting at 7:30 pm Eastern time. Pregame programming will begin at 5:00 pm.

Coach Ryan Day acknowledged that his team is favored to win. This week, he used a word salad of coach speak to avoid sounding overconfident. “I can’t tell you that there isn’t confidence coming off of the last game, coming off the last couple games,” he said. “That’s good. But again, it has got to be moving forward, and this is a very, very good team,” Day says. “They have only lost one game, and the teams that they have played in this playoff are tremendous teams, and they play well together. They’re tough. They’re resilient. They find ways to win. We have got to play our best game to win this game. I am just telling you, we have to play our best game, and that’s going to be the focus, and that’s where we’re going moving forward.”

Each team suffered a crushing regular season loss that served to refocus them. Notre Dame’s shockingly poor performance against Northern Illinois placed its back firmly against the wall. Not only did they win the next 13 consecutive games, but they played consistent, high-level football each week.

OSU was ranked second in the country and were three touchdown favorites against a 6-5 Michigan team. The more physical Wolverines shut down the vaunted Buckeye offense and scored enough points to win by 13-10. Day then circled the wagons against his many critics. His team has been nearly unstoppable since.

Healthwise, Ohio State reported no new injuries to its starters or primary backups. Earlier this season, they lost a pair of offensive linemen in left tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin. All-American guard Donovan Jackson moved to tackle to replace Simmons while Carson Hinzman took over at center. Austin Siereveld has now assumed Jackson’s old spot at left guard.

Notre Dame’s patchwork story along the offensive line is similar to the Buckeyes. Charles Jagusah will return to left tackle to replace the injured Anthonie Knapp. Guard Rocco Spindler will start in spite of a persistent ankle ailment. Sam Pendleton is ready in reserve if Spindler cannot finish the game. Other walking wounded starters such as Jeremiyah Love, Beaux Collins and Howard Cross will play.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE’S DEFENSE

Defensively, the Buckeyes have a strong group of seasoned veterans with future NFL players at each level. Ends Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau can sack the quarterback and set the edge in defending the run. Tackles Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton get a push inside and clog up the running lanes.

Two fast and physical athletes man the linebacker spots in this 4-2-5 alignment. Cody Simon and Sonny Styles cover the field and frequently reside in the opponent’s backfield. Simon is best against the run while Styles can cover backs and tight ends in the passing game.

The secondary is led by two outstanding safeties in All-American Caleb Downs and Latham Ransom. Denzel Burke is their best cover corner. Joining Burke on the outside is scrappy Davison Igbinosun, who plays a physical style against wide receivers. Jordan Hancock is the nickel back.

There are no glaring weaknesses in this unit and they are particularly tough in the red zone. OSU leads the nation in allowing the fewest percentage of red zone scores and touchdowns.

Notre Dame should direct power runs at the defensive ends rather than try to beat the Buckeyes to the edge. Riley Leonard can use draw plays with a lead blocker to counter any interior penetration by Williams and Hamilton. In short, the Irish must attack this defense with extreme physicality and directness.

In the passing game, the Buckeyes typically play shell coverage with their versatile safeties. This enables OSU to keep opposing receivers from beating them deep. Leonard will have to exploit opportunities in the short and intermediate zones. He will also have to be decisive and get rid of the ball quickly and accurately. Ohio State’s pressure is very formidable when they know a pass is coming.

OHIO STATE’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Quarterback Will Howard has the enviable task of directing an offense loaded with game breakers. Unsurprisingly, Howard improved from a 59% passer in four seasons at Kansas State to 73% in Columbus. His trio of wide receivers features freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith, veteran Emeka Egbuka, and sophomore Carnell Tate. Smith and Egbuka have caught over 70 passes each for nearly 2200 yards and 24 touchdowns. Tate’s 50 catches are more than any Irish receiver.

A daunting challenge for Notre Dame is developing a plan to neutralize this group. Al Golden’s defense features mostly man coverage that has been largely successful against most teams. They cannot and should not abandon what they have done all season. Obviously, the risk increases significantly against OSU’s elite receivers. Logic dictates a mixture of coverage plans and various disguises to give Howard pause in the pocket.

Reporters asked Coach Marcus Freeman what approach his defense would take, and whether single man coverage is prudent.

“Yeah, as you watch film, not many teams are successful just sitting in man coverage versus these receivers. We’ll obviously have to mix some things up and come up with a great plan to try to limit what they do in the passing game. You’re not going to be able to stop their receivers totally. They’re a talented bunch. So we’ll come up with a plan and be able to adapt and adjust based off what’s going on in the game.”

There are other elements of pass defense besides coverage in the secondary. Golden must find ways to bring pressure on Howard, who is deadly accurate from a clean pocket. Ohio State’s offensive line has performed well in the playoffs despite the recent shuffling of personnel. There may be opportunities for the Irish to become disruptive, though. Speed rushers from the edge such as Bryce Young can win against the Buckeye tackles. Gap blitzers like Jaylen Sneed can be effective inside where Ohio State is playing backup linemen.

All-out blitzing carries some risk. OSU is particularly effective on screen passes to tailback TreVeyon Henderson. Howard is also mobile enough to turn a potential loss into a gain. Therefore, the cat and mouse game between Golden and Buckeye OC Chip Kelly will be critically important.

Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are yet another talented pair of backs that the Irish must defend. Judkins is a punishing inside runner while Henderson has the speed to go the distance. They bring a balance to the offense that prevents teams from sitting back in pass coverage. It will be interesting to see how Golden deploys his safeties. Will they help the corners against Smith and Egbuka or come down to stop the run? Each option carries some risk, so it is important for the Irish to disguise their intentions until the snap. They also need to be right more than they are wrong.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Notre Dame’s specialists have raised their performance level during the playoffs. Kicker Mitch Jeter has evolved from a question mark to a cult hero in a few short weeks. Punter James Rendell has quietly become steady and effective rather than wildly inconsistent.

Jayden Harrison brought back a kickoff for a touchdown against Georgia but the Buckeyes rarely allow a return. Max Hurleman fields punts for the Irish. He will run straight ahead for a short gain when he has daylight.

Ohio State has a relatively average kicker in Jayden Fielding. It amazes me how many parents of the previous generation named their children Jayden, but I digress. Fielding has missed a few short field goal attempts this season. His longest successful kick is 46 yards. Punter Joe McGuire is an adequate performer with a 42-yard average. None of his punts were blocked but the Irish will likely come after him.

OSU has not accomplished much with its return game this season. Reserve wideout Brandon Inniss normally handles those chores although the Buckeye stars will take some reps on Monday. Look for Henderson to return kickoffs and Egbuka or Downs on punts. Downs scored a touchdown in that role against Indiana in November.

Notre Dame has an advantage in this area they will hope to exploit. It was obvious throughout the season that the Irish emphasize this phase of the game. Their creativity and effort has paid dividends several times with game-altering plays. A game of this magnitude can turn on a single long return, blocked kick, or well-executed fake.

SUMMARY

Each team is excellent in terms of protecting the ball. Any turnover in this game will be not only surprising but very meaningful. Remember that offensive failures to convert fourth down tries are essentially turnovers as well.

It is critical for each team to establish the run, although for different strategic reasons. Ohio State wants to force the Irish safeties into the box. Then, they can exploit man coverage for big plays downfield. Notre Dame wants to establish itself as the more physical team and control the clock. Leonard will be an integral component in that effort. If the Irish are to be successful, they must avoid obvious passing situations on third down.

The battle of innovation and adjustments between each team’s veteran coordinators will also play a major role. Defenses should expect to see a new wrinkle or trick play from the offenses. Blitzes and coverages will also have new looks. Success may depend on which coaching staff is best prepared. Still, the players must execute with poise and precision.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

• Which team will establish and maintain a productive rushing attack?
• Can Notre Dame find ways to harass Howard in the pocket?
• Which coaching staff will seize early momentum with innovation and surprise?
• Will Notre Dame’s special teams have a positive impact on the outcome?
• Which team will commit costly penalties that alter the outcome of drives?
• Can the disciplined Irish secondary keep the elite  Buckeye receivers in check?
• Which team will win the turnover and fourth down battle?
• Will Notre Dame continue to thrive in the middle eight minutes of the game?

PREDICTION

Ohio State has an abundance of talent that can seem overwhelming on paper. Their advantages were manifested in blowouts over Oregon and Tennessee. Notre Dame will not engage in a shootout against this juggernaut for obvious reasons. Their path to victory is more narrow but not impossible. Georgia and Penn State appeared to have advantages at the skill positions and in the trenches. They lost anyway.

In order to win, the Irish must survive the first quarter without falling well behind. Then, they must win the middle eight minutes of the game as they have done throughout the playoffs. Finally, Notre Dame must be the more physical team in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the Irish need to win the turnover battle and the matchup between special teams. All of these “musts” are doable but in total it becomes a tall order.

The easy path for me is to go with the flow and pick the Buckeyes. That would be a great disservice to a fearless team that has demonstrated the heart of a champion. We have shared our concerns and doubts about this imperfect Irish team throughout this long season. That is understandable after 36 years in the desert. What endures is the leadership and character that we know matters in the most critical moments. I am not going to abandon them now.

NOTRE DAME 23  OHIO STATE 20

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