Notre Dame begins its grueling October schedule by hosting the Stanford Cardinal on Saturday afternoon. The rivalry between these teams has intensified during the last few years as both programs have regained national attention after several years of mediocre play, and both teams have sent numerous players to the NFL in recent drafts. The Cardinal are still miffed about a 20-13 overtime loss in 2012 where tailback Stepfan Taylor squirmed across the goal line about 20 minutes after being stopped and the game declared over. This year’s contest also promises to be competitive, hard fought and low scoring. National television coverage will be provided by NBC beginning at 3:30 PM Eastern time.

Stanford (3-1) enters the game ranked first nationally in total defense (198 ypg), passing defense (74 ypg) and scoring defense (6.5 ppg). Although they played two soft opponents in their first four games, they also battled two conference foes including USC, whom they held to 13 points. It is obvious from watching this unit perform that they are well coached, disciplined, and experienced. Eight starters are seniors or fifth year players. The Irish have only two, Joe Schmidt and Cody Riggs, unless Austin Collinsworth comes back to start at safety over Elijah Shumate.

Coach Brian Kelly’s team is still without five experienced players as of now (Thursday), who are scheduled to learn the results of the university’s academic integrity investigation in the next few days. At this point it seems reasonable to assume that none of the “Frozen Five” will play a significant part in this game regardless of any individual ruling. On the injury front, Notre Dame would like to have slot receiver Amir Carlisle back for this contest, but it is not yet known how much he will be able to contribute.

While both defenses have played well this season, the offenses have suffered from inconsistency and turnovers. Quarterbacks Everett Golson and Stanford’s Kevin Hogan will be in the spotlight. Both can run as well as throw, and each boasts a completion percentage of approximately 70% against two interceptions. Also in the spotlight are each team’s leading receiver and fastest player. Ty Montgomery is that player for the Cardinal, while Will Fuller has emerged as the game-breaker for the Irish.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. STANFORD’S DEFENSE

The Cardinal employ a 3-4 defensive alignment with good size at the ends and linebacker positions. Teams are generally unable to run wide against them as they get off blocks fairly well and do a good job of containment. The down linemen are all fifth year seniors in nose tackle Dave Parry and a pair of 6’5” ends in Henry Anderson and Blake Lueders. Aziz Shittu is a capable reserve in the rotation. Inside linebackers Blake Martinez and A.J. Tarpley lead the team in tackles, with outside men Kevin Anderson and James Vaughters right behind them.

The revamped Notre Dame offensive line will have problems with this group if they attempt slow developing running plays to the outside, and pass protection could also be a chore. Sophomore Peter Kalambayi has emerged as the team’s sack specialist, and he was the team’s most effective player last week in the win over Washington. The Irish must continue to improve in the running game and avoid continuous third and long situations that Stanford typically crushes.

The Irish will seek to find exploitable matchups in the passing game that will buy them an advantage. If Fuller, Carlisle and Chris Brown are on the field together, Golson should have some success. The Cardinal secondary is solid, however, lead by safety Jordan Richardson and cornerback James Lyons. This group limited a talented USC receiving corps to 135 yards and no touchdowns. Golson may need to scramble and improvise quite a bit on Saturday, but he should be sure to slide or get out of bounds when prudence dictates. The major strength of the Stanford pass rush is that they not only bring excellent pressure, but also manage to shut off any running lanes for the quarterback to escape.

A north-south running game, a fast tempo and play calling that departs from the predictable are the key ingredients to success. Scoring opportunities will be in short supply so Notre Dame must convert each one into points. The Cardinal are actually better against the pass this year than in stopping the run, so the Irish should not just default to the air attack. Stanford will try to protect against the short slants and flat passes with tight coverage and gamble that their rush will get to Golson before he has time to throw it deep. This strategy worked well against USC.

STANFORD’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

The Cardinal scored only ten points on five trips inside the red zone against USC, and it cost them the ball game despite outgaining the Trojans by a substantial margin. Hogan has moved the team well in the middle of the field, but his completion rate declines closer to the goal line and field goal kicker Jordan Williamson is far from automatic. The best weapon for Stanford is wide receiver and all-purpose star Ty Montgomery, who can score from long range and make any red zone concerns irrelevant.

The base alignment for the Cardinal includes a fullback, tight end and two receivers. Montgomery is the main threat who discourages teams from loading the box with defenders to stop the run. Tight end Austin Hooper and receiver Devin Cajuste are competent and productive, while speedy Michael Rector is the third wideout on obvious passing downs. The rushing attack is similar to Notre Dame in that three running backs are used in a rotation. Kelsey Young, Barry Sanders and Remound Wright average more than five yards per carry and share the ball almost equally.

A powerful offensive line remains the key to Stanford’s overall success. Five members of the stellar 2012 recruiting class are the current starters, including left tackle Andrus Peat, guard Josh Garnett and right tackle Kyle Murphy. Fullback Lee Ward is an experienced lead blocker and one reason why the tailbacks often travel several yards before first contact. The Irish linebackers, including Joe Schmidt and Jaylon Smith, will have to be stout for what is certain to be a physical contest. Smith did not have a strong game against Syracuse but he will be needed at his best on Saturday.

Hogan is a legitimate threat to pick up big chunks of yards outside the pocket. At 6’4” 225, he still has the speed to break containment and pick up first downs. He also has a habit of making poor throws under pressure, but the Irish must be able to provide it. They must also make sure that Montgomery is not allowed to roam free in the secondary, so the plan must be to contain him and attempt to defend Stanford’s other less dangerous weapons.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Once again, Kyle Brindza gives the Irish a clear advantage over the opponent’s place kicker. For Stanford, Jordan Williamson is a mere four for eight in field goal attempts with a long of 35 yards and one block. If the game comes down to a battle of three-pointers, Brindza’s range and accuracy will be tough to beat. Equally important is Brinza’s ability to kick the ball deep enough or punt it high enough to neutralize Montgomery, who is a threat to score on returns or at least alter field position dramatically. In a battle where every yard will be contested, yards gained in the return game could create a scoring chance that spells the difference in the outcome.

Notre Dame started the season well as Cody Riggs showed an aptitude for returning punts and Carlisle was an above-average kick returner. The numbers since the opener against Rice have not nearly been as good, and the Irish need to have a better showing here. Needless to say, the coverage teams have to be disciplined and tackle crisply should Montgomery get a chance to run one back.

SUMMARY

Another slugfest is likely with a few scoring chances for each side that will be set up by a precious few big offensive plays, turnovers and special teams. The team that converts most of their opportunities will win, and touchdowns are going to be at a premium as opposed to field goals. Each senior quarterback can be very effective, but also capable of making a catastrophic mistake. The Irish hope that Golson got all of that out of his system last week with four turnovers against Syracuse.

The Irish need to defend Montgomery wherever he is on the field and do a credible job against the run. The Cardinal must crowd Notre Dame’s receivers and keep Golson in the pocket. If the Irish can establish an effective running game, slow down the pass rush and open up the entire field for their speedy athletes, they will prevail. Neither team will be able to convert third and long situations with any consistency, so the trick is to stay out of them.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Which offensive line will best protect its quarterback?

Will Notre Dame be able to contain Montgomery?

Which offense will have a higher success rate on third down?

Can Stanford cover the speedy Irish receivers?

Which quarterback will refrain from turning over the ball?

Which special teams will win the battle of field position?

Which defense will make a critical stand with the outcome on the line?

PREDICTION

Both teams have advantages they can exploit to spell the difference in the game. The Cardinal offensive line and rushing attack make Hogan a more effective passer, and the defense simply does not make mistakes. Montgomery alone is good enough to be the difference if the Irish fail to blanket him. Notre Dame has the weapons to win individual matchups and put points on the board, but only if its offensive line can protect Golson and generate enough yards on the ground to make Stanford respect it. In the end, Golson should be able to leave last week’s mistakes behind and outplay Hogan, while Brindza will provide the winning margin.

NOTRE DAME 20 STANFORD 17