The Notre Dame football team has departed Boston, celebrated Thanksgiving on campus, and will continue its cross-country journey to Palo Alto, CA to play the Stanford Cardinal in the regular season finale on Saturday evening. The Irish have fallen to sixth in the current playoff rankings by virtue of an unimpressive 19-16 victory over 3-8 Boston College that was marred by five costly turnovers and injuries to two more key starters. In order to complete its mission of participating in the college football playoff, Notre Dame must play a solid, 60-minute game and defeat a quality opponent on the road. Stanford, of course, has other ideas and at 9-2 the Cardinal still harbor faint playoff dreams of their own. Fox will televise the game nationally beginning at 7:30 PM Eastern time.

Following a 16-6 loss to Northwestern in its season opener, Stanford has scored at least 30 points in each subsequent game. Senior quarterback Kevin Hogan directs the attack, and tailback/kick returner Christian McCaffrey has Heisman-quality numbers for total offense with over 2800 combined yards, which is by far the best in the nation. Coach David Shaw is 51-14 in his fifth year at the helm of his alma mater, and the Cardinal will play for the PAC-12 championship next weekend.

The Irish continue to look for able bodies in light of the season-long injury curse that has tested their depth and their will. Last week, C.J. Prosise and KeiVarae Russell became the eighth and ninth starters to suffer season ending injuries. It’s safe to say that no other playoff contender has experienced similar misfortune, but the question is whether it will catch up to Notre Dame this weekend as the team has been running on fumes throughout a difficult November.

Stanford has been much more fortunate on the injury front as its starting lineup has been intact for most of the season. This week, fullback Daniel Marx is out while senior cornerback Ronnie Harris is questionable. Harris is the team’s best cover man and would be missed if his injured ankle keeps him on the sideline.

NOTRE DAME’S OFFENSE vs. STANFORD’S DEFENSE

The Cardinal have several new faces on their 3-4 defense this year, but senior linebackers Blake Martinez and Kevin Anderson are the mainstays. Martinez leads the team in tackles by a wide margin and Anderson is an effective pass rusher from his outside position. The revamped front line features end Brennan Scarlett, a graduate transfer from rival Cal, nose tackle Solomon Thomas and end Aziz Shittu. The group is slightly above average against the run but has surrendered more yards and points this season than the last few seasons where they were among the nation’s best.

The secondary, particularly without Harris, may be vulnerable. Conference opponents have moved the ball well through the air against Stanford, but the offense has managed to outscore most of them. The Cardinal also tighten up in the red zone and quite often force teams to settle for field goals. Notre Dame must capitalize on its opportunities in these situations, which will require a 180 degree turnaround from last week.

Ball security and turnovers plagued the Irish against BC, but Stanford has forced just ten miscues all season and is not a team that blitzes frequently or is known to pressure the quarterback. Notre Dame can take advantage of certain matchups in the passing game, but only if star players such as Will Fuller catch the ball when it is thrown their way. In the running game, the Irish will enjoy a size advantage over the Cardinal in clearing a path for Josh Adams. The key to success may be the ability of Notre Dame’s center and guards to fire out and block Martinez and Anderson.

Stanford is not very deep up front, so the Irish should not be reluctant to assert themselves physically. Quarterback DeShone Kizer will carry the ball a few times as well, as the team must pull out all the stops to come away with a victory in what is essentially an elimination game. Although there is no guarantee of a spot in the final four should Notre Dame prevail, other games this weekend are bound to produce a few surprises and a potential opening for the Irish should they take care of business in Palo Alto.

STANFORD’S OFFENSE vs. NOTRE DAME’S DEFENSE

Hogan has been his usual efficient self this year with a 67% completion rate and the ability to pull the ball down and run for first downs when they are needed most. He has speed on the edge at receiver with senior Michael Rector, a solid possession wideout in Devin Cajuste, and a pair of productive tight ends in Austin Hooper and Greg Taboada. Notre Dame will have to find a replacement for Russell at cornerback. The candidates are Devin Butler, Nick Watkins and freshman Nick Coleman. Whomever gets the starting nod will be a marked man all night.

Hogan’s favorite target is the workhorse McCaffrey, as the Cardinal simply try to get the ball to him in space. In addition to his 1546 yards rushing, he is the team’s leading pass catcher and frequently turns short throws to the flat into big plays. Stanford also mixes in other talented tailbacks including Barry Sanders, Jr. and freshman Bryce Love. The latter is fast and extremely dangerous on jet sweeps and in the open field. The short yardage back is Remound Wright, who runs behind a jumbo package of lead blockers consisting of two or three additional 300 pound linemen.

The left side of the Cardinal offensive line is manned by a pair of stellar seniors, tackle Kyle Murphy and guard Josh Garnett. Sophomore right tackle Casey Tucker is the lone non-senior up front for Stanford, who is first in the country in time of possession at more than 35 minutes per game. It’s easy to understand this level of dominance when you note that this offense converts an impressive 50% of its third downs.

The Cardinal offense is not particularly deceptive, but they rely on the decision-making of Hogan, great balance, and the athletic ability of McCaffrey to make extraordinary plays or draw the attention of the defense away from their other threats. Once in the red zone, Hogan frequently looks for Hooper and Taboada in mismatches against smaller defensive backs. This is a quality offense that will give the Irish fits if they are not very disciplined and tackle crisply.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Kicker Conrad Ukropina has been exemplary for Stanford this season, hitting on 14 of 16 field goal attempts and showing excellent range. Punter Alex Robinson’s statistics are average and the coverage units are solid. McCaffrey is always a threat to generate a big play, and he scored on a 98-yard kick return just last week.

Notre Dame continues to benefit from strong performances by its specialists, Justin Yoon and Tyler Newsome, but the return teams have consistently failed to generate many yards. C.J. Sanders was replaced by Fuller on punt returns last week due to shakiness that nearly resulted in disaster.

SUMMARY

The Irish and Cardinal are capable of putting bunches of points on the board but need to protect defenses that can be shaky at times. The winning team will outperform the other in the usual situations: red zone efficiency, breaking tackles that turn five yard plays into 30 yard gains, turnovers, and dropped passes. Kizer’s miscues against Boston College have been dissected during the past week, but Hogan fumbled twice in the fourth quarter to give away Stanford’s game against Oregon a fortnight ago.

Both teams have strong offensive lines and quarterbacks that can run as well as pass. There are highly skilled and explosive players at running back and receiver on both sides. The Cardinal utilize the tight end in the passing game quite extensively while the Irish employ them mainly for blocking. Notre Dame’s defensive line has an edge in talent but Stanford’s linebackers as a unit are better tacklers in space than their Irish counterparts other than Jaylon Smith. Each secondary has vulnerabilities, but when the Irish make a mistake it usually results in seven points for the opponent.

Here are a few questions that will shed light on the outcome:

Which quarterback will perform best under pressure?

Will McCaffrey advance his Heisman campaign at Notre Dame’s expense?

Which star linebacker, Jaylon Smith or Blake Martinez, will be a difference maker?

Can Will Fuller bounce back and make the clutch receptions for the Irish?

Which team’s depleted secondary can rise to the occasion?

Which offense will convert its red zone opportunities?

Can Notre Dame make a compelling statement to the playoff selection committee?

PREDICTION

The Irish have more top end talent, but star players like Sheldon Day, Ronnie Stanley, Nick Martin, Max Redfield, Fuller, Smith and Kizer must each play well to overcome the more methodical but efficient Cardinal. Notre Dame has stopped itself in scoring territory far too often recently with turnovers, poor execution and questionably play calling. The uneven performances in last two games reflect a team that is out of gas, and Kizer is returning to Earth after heroics against Virginia and Temple. Hogan’s experience will be a factor on Saturday, and the weight of prior injuries will finally prove to be too much for the Irish to overcome.

STANFORD 34 NOTRE DAME 27