Since it’s a bye week for Notre Dame and the Fighting Irish have only one loss to date, my thoughts drifted to the initial rankings to be issued by the playoff committee on November 3, and what help Notre Dame may need to slide into a top four spot at the end of the season. Of course, winning the rest of its games is the first step, and that may not even be enough.

Let’s look at the teams ranked above or near the Irish in the current AP Poll, and then consider the picture from the conference perspective.

1. Ohio State (7-0) – The head-to-head battle against Michigan State on November 21 should decide which team from the East side of the Big-10 gets to play Iowa, the most likely representative from the West. The problem for the Buckeyes is they have to travel to Ann Arbor the very next week to play a very angry bunch of Wolverines, who are still sore after beating themselves last week. I must confess that I don’t know how the Big-10 will decide which East team will play Iowa if Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan each have one loss in conference play. The Buckeyes can end that speculation by defeating the two Michigan schools and Iowa in a three week period, and I would not put it past Urban Meyer. He did something quite similar last year with his third string quarterback.

2. Baylor (7-0) – The Bears also have a conference minefield to navigate during November. They will close their season with consecutive games against Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State and at TCU. If they win out, they will have earned a seat at the playoff table.

3. Utah (6-0) – The Utes have emerged in the PAC-12 South as UCLA and USC have imploded. They will have to beat the Trojans in Los Angeles this weekend and may have trouble at Washington on November 7. Beyond that, they will get ready for the conference championship game on December 5. Stanford is the likely opponent but California, whom the Utes defeated at home earlier this month, has a chance.

4. TCU (7-0) – The Horned Frogs must run the same conference gauntlet as Baylor and the Oklahoma schools. They travel to Stillwater and Norman in November before finishing at home against Baylor. Anyone who survives those tests intact will be in the final four.

5. LSU (6-0) – The Tigers lead the SEC West at the moment, but they will be tested next month. They travel to Alabama on November 7 before hosting Mississippi and Texas A&M to close the regular season. A conference championship game, likely against Florida, would be the last hurdle. LSU beat Florida last week by 35-28 in a tight game. The playoff committee would take a one-loss SEC team that won its conference championship game, but the Tigers won’t get that far if they lose to Alabama and the Tide’s only blemish in conference is an earlier loss to Mississippi.

6. Clemson (6-0) – The Irish have to be kicking themselves for letting their game with the Tigers get away. Clemson will host Florida State on November 7 to decide the Coastal Division of the ACC, and then face a mediocre South Carolina team in an out of conference battle to end the regular season. A championship game matchup with Duke or Pittsburgh would then be their final chance to impress the voters.

7. Michigan State (7-0) – After toying with Michigan for 59:50 last Saturday before putting them away, The Spartans appear to have clear sailing until the trip to Columbus on November 21. It may be a tall order to win that game, but some teams are just born lucky. If Michigan State survives the Buckeyes, they would beat Penn State in East Lansing before getting ready for the Hawkeyes in the conference championship.

8. Alabama (6-1) – The Tide has no margin for error to make the conference championship game, but they may not need any. The LSU matchup should be decisive, and a win would give Nick Saban the tiebreaker over LSU and A&M in the Western Division. A trip to Auburn looms on November 28, but if Alabama is unbeaten between now and then, the Tide should roll right into the SEC championship game where they would be favored against Florida.

9. Florida State (7-0) – The Seminoles must win at Clemson to keep hope alive. If they prevail, they should be able to capture the conference championship game from Coastal Division representative Duke, Pitt, or North Carolina. The bigger problem for the Noles is a non-conference date at Florida to end the regular season.

10. Stanford (5-1) – The Cardinal have followed a bad opening day loss to Northwestern by averaging 45 points per game to win their next five contests. November’s challenges include consecutive home games against Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame to end the regular season. A conference championship matchup with Utah could follow. If the Irish beat Stanford and finish 11-1, the Cardinal will have no playoff claim even if they win the PAC-12.

12. Iowa (7-0) – While the beasts of the East knock each other around, the Hawkeyes should walk through the dregs of the Big-10 West until things get serious in the conference championship game. If they stumble against any of their remaining opponents, they won’t deserve a playoff spot even if they manage to beat the Spartans or Buckeyes on December 5.

13. Oklahoma State (7-0) – While everyone focuses on Baylor and TCU, the 14th ranked Cowboys have flown under the radar with close wins in several games. This high-wire act will probably end during a stretch where they play at Texas Tech, host TCU, travel to Baylor and entertain the Sooners.

The tenth-ranked Irish need to leapfrog several teams to enter the Promised Land, but plausible scenarios exist under which it could happen. With five major conference champions vying for a spot, the Irish must have a better resume than two of them to be voted in. Setting aside how difficult that may be or the potential for voter bias to poison the well for Notre Dame, let’s look at the variable within each of the Power Five.

Big-10

Most likely outcome – Ohio State wins out and defends its title.
Most interesting outcome, Part I – The Buckeyes, Spartans and Wolverines each end the regular season with one conference loss in the East Division.
Most interesting outcome, Part II – Iowa surprises the East representative in the championship game.
Best opportunity for Notre Dame – There is probably nothing that will preclude even a one-loss Big-Ten champion from advancing to the playoffs, unless Iowa has a bad loss in November but wins the overall title.

Big-12

Most likely outcome – The Baylor-TCU winner is undefeated and makes the playoffs.
Most interesting outcome – A one loss team emerges at the top, and that loss is an ugly one.
Best opportunity for Notre Dame – Oklahoma wins out and takes the conference title. The only common opponent between the Sooners and Irish is Texas.

ACC

Most likely outcome – The Florida State – Clemson winner takes the conference title and stakes its claim for a playoff spot.
Most interesting outcome, Part I – The FSU-Clemson winner stumbles in its last regular season game against a traditional rival.
Best opportunity for Notre Dame – The FSU-Clemson winner loses the ACC championship game against a team Notre Dame will have defeated (Pitt), or a team with a lesser resume like Duke. Unfortunately for the Irish, even a one-loss champion would be a problem if it were FSU or Clemson.

SEC

Most likely outcome – The LSU – Alabama winner goes on to win the conference title and join the playoff party.
Most interesting outcome – Nick Saban leaves Alabama on November 29 to rescue USC.
Best opportunity for Notre Dame – A two-loss Florida team wins the conference championship game.

PAC-12

Most likely outcome – Utah and Stanford play for the conference title, but neither emerges undefeated.
Most interesting outcome – There isn’t one. Nobody cares about the PAC-12
Best opportunity for Notre Dame – Beat Stanford on November 28.

The view from each conference suggests the Irish have the best chance to rise above the PAC-12 champ by finishing 11-1. The toughest conference champions to unseat would be an undefeated or one-loss LSU team or a one-loss Alabama team in the SEC, and any other surviving undefeated conference champion such as Ohio State or Michigan State, Baylor or TCU, and Florida State or Clemson. Three of these six teams would indeed be easy selections to join the Bama-LSU winner if those scenarios played out, but it would be extremely rare to see so many undefeated teams at the end of the season.

There is bound to be chaos in the Big-12 with highly ranked teams losing in November. In the ACC and Big-10, an upset in the conference championship game would also create havoc and possibly an opportunity for Notre Dame. The situation won’t begin to clear up for another couple of weeks, but unforeseen upsets are welcome as long as they don’t happen to the Irish.