Think about all the millions of people who have ...

Think about all the millions of people who have ...
by Ofcr. Tim McCarthy (2023-03-25 14:28:16)
Edited on 2023-03-25 14:30:35

In reply to: I just started trying out GPT4 and DALLE2 posted by akarl

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... entrusted their and their families' futures to their computer science careers, upon the urging of pretty much every kind of educational and career authority out there, over the last 20 years. People currently in their 20s, 30s, 40s. Their careers could be eradicated, by the millions, within, what? Eighteen months? Two years? Hey, maybe five years.

Add the health care workers whom Gates and others believe will be "empowered" to "do other things." The architects and engineers. The logistics and accounting and production managers. The actors and models, the copywriters, the salespeople .... On and on and on, and it isn't going to take strong AGI to do it. It's only going to take the tools that are being rolled out, to the market, right now.

Regarding the timeline

I spent a lot of time a few years ago working on some applications of recurrent neural networks in Keras. These are a different architecture of neural network than used by GPT and DALLE, but they have a lot of similarities (as of 2017 it was the model structure used by Google translate). So I was able to get some insight into the potential of text and image analysis and generation. If you had asked me before I first looked at these programs a few weeks ago, I would have guessed that the kind of functionality I am already seeing when playing around would have been 10 years away. So I can't imagine what things will look like in 10 years.

There are still enough errors in the output to require expertise in sporting and fixing them, but even now this could represent a huge reduction in programming time just from getting the initial libraries and functions setup instantly while also minimizing typos and bugs.

The worst point in the transition will be when the AI

isn't reliable enough to get all the hard points, but the humans in the loop get lazy and stop being skeptical and stop looking for the "stupid AI, you missed..." things.

…becomes self aware and launches a nuclear attack. *

Nah - by that point, we'll be so sick of AI generated ads

for the AI generated models of the AI generated political candidates, KPOP boybands, and DiKToK social media influencers, we'll welcome the sweet, sweet thermonuclear annihilation.