It might partially explain what's happened in Sweden
by combodraw (2020-08-07 11:28:50)

In reply to: T-cell immunity - is this potentially significant,  posted by Tex Francisco

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They've had no lock down, or widespread use of masks, yet cases have sharply dropped over the past month or so. Either there's been some type of behavior change there in the past 4-6 weeks, or the virus is having trouble finding enough hosts to spread itself (or I've missed something else entirely!).

NDHouston’s Post deserves attention.
by ewillND  (2020-08-07 15:41:38)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

School year ended on June 10th, and from the summer solstice on, Swedes social distance at their summer cottages through the end of August. Compare that with the infection curve.
Sweden largely shuts down between 21 June and 1 August
by ndhouston  (2020-08-07 12:58:26)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

They mostly go to their lake cottages for all of July.

Except, why would one expect Swedes
by ufl  (2020-08-07 11:42:02)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

to have had more exposure to previous viruses than other folks?
Sweden's cases per million is one of the higher in the world
by Father Nieuwland  (2020-08-07 11:58:40)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

#15 if we exclude countries with fewer than 1,000,000 residents

Though an accurate count of cases is probably difficult to determine for most countries, due to timing and availability of tests and requirements and willingness of residents to get tests. Plus asymptomatic cases might exclude many cases from being tested as well.

EDIT - though I think we can safely assume the number of cases by any measure is short of 70% of the population which is the number I have seen for estimated "herd" immunity via infection

Yes, I agree, but
by combodraw  (2020-08-07 11:45:40)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

My point isn't that Sweden has had more exposure to previous viruses than elsewhere. It's that there's maybe a strong "herd immunity" affect going on in Sweden through a combination of exposure to previous viruses and exposure to COVID itself.
and less obesity leading to fewer severe cases. *
by Tex Francisco  (2020-08-07 11:47:07)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Couldn't it explain NY/NJ as well?
by Tex Francisco  (2020-08-07 11:41:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

Given the lack of testing in March/April and some of the subsequent antibody studies, it seems like the virus reached a far greater percentage of the population than testing alone would lead you to believe. If a large percentage of the population has already had the virus and a large percentage of the remaining population has some natural immunity, then that area of the country may have something starting to resemble herd immunity, such that they're unlikely to get a repeat of the March/April spike.

One difference is that NYC
by combodraw  (2020-08-07 11:44:17)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

locked down pretty hard when the virus peaked. We don't know if their drop in cases is due to the lockdown, or because some type of herd immunity factor took place, or a combo of both.

Sweden is a different situation (and stronger case for a herd immunity type affect) because they hit a sharp peak and declined without any change in behavior that I can pin point.
See my post and NDHs.
by ewillND  (2020-08-07 15:42:52)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

There was a very obvious change in behavior.