My off ramp is not having high or substantial spread
by vermin05 (2021-08-02 13:35:11)

In reply to: So let's go through your 2nd paragraph  posted by Steelhop


It’s simple, you don’t need a mask unless the spread in your area is high or substantial. This peak is going to crest and fall back to those levels in about 4-6 weeks max. Then you can take the mask off.


That isn't a standard. Cases aren't in any way
by Steelhop  (2021-08-02 14:44:11)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

a reliable metric of determining severity. As Mintirish noted above WRT to the CDC numbers related to "high or substantial" there are issues with that.

First, there is no evidentiary backing as to why those were picked. What if they should be lower?

Second, it doesn't take into account testing numbers. More tests, more cases.

Third, as it was originally stated way back 500+ days ago that we are doing all this to prevent overwhelming our hospitals. There has been a decoupling of cases from hospitalizations and deaths.

Lastly, said standard wouldn't have stopped the outbreak generated in P-town that was basis for the White House deciding they wanted to change the policies. As you stated above "It was sex. Don’t have sex with and French kiss a Covid positive person."


ufl's posts below say there isn't much of a decoupling.
by ndroman21  (2021-08-02 14:55:49)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

At least for hospitalizations. Since the majority of the cases are amongst the unvaccinated, this makes sense.

Do you have data that shows otherwise?


I don't know how to embed images
by Steelhop  (2021-08-02 16:17:39)     cannot delete  |  Edit  |  Return to Board  |  Ignore Poster   |   Highlight Poster  |   Reply to Post

but here you go.

Cases link from Worldmeters - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Now, look at the two peaks - the winter UK peak and the peak from late July. Top end for July cases was just under 50K daily cases. Top end for winter was 67K.

Now, look at hospitalizations.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions

In the winter top end of hospitalizations was about 3700. Top end of hospitalizations in July was 739 and it is already going down.

Some of it is likely due to the type of patient going into the hospital. Less elderly being ineffected.